Saudi Arabia and Pakistan recently signed a mutual defence pact (Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement) in Riyadh, pledging that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both. 

• The agreement comes at a time when West Asia is witnessing heightened instability following Israel’s strike in Qatar.

Strategic Dimensions of the Pact

• Scope of Agreement: The pact covers all military means, including joint training, intelligence sharing, and coordinated exercises.
• Mutual Defence Clause: It declares that “an attack on either country will be considered an attack on both,” formalising long-discussed security cooperation.
• Nuclear Umbrella Dimension: Islamabad’s nuclear capability could be made available to Saudi Arabia under the pact. 
  • This is the first public acknowledgment linking Riyadh to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent, long suspected due to Saudi financial support for Pakistan’s programme in the 1970s and 1980s.
• Dependence and Strategic Rethink: Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied on the United States for its security needs, but the defence pact with Pakistan reflects a recalibration of Saudi Arabia’s security strategy amidst declining confidence in United States long-term guarantees.
• Saudi Positioning: Saudi Arabia has presented the agreement as a step towards regional peace and stability, though the timing clearly reflects the shifting balance following Israel’s strike in Qatar.

Implications for India

• Strengthening of Pakistan’s Position: The pact gives Pakistan political and potential financial backing from Riyadh, which could embolden Islamabad in disputes over Kashmir or terrorism. 
  • For example, Saudi Arabia has previously rolled over USD 3 billion deposits to support Pakistan’s economy, which indirectly sustains its defence spending.
• New Security Challenges: The possibility of Saudi funding flowing into Pakistan’s defence sector raises concerns of a better-equipped Pakistani military, which may complicate India’s security calculus.
• Domino Effect in the Gulf: The pact is likely to trigger a domino effect in West Asia, where rivalries and differences could prompt more states to pursue similar defence arrangements. 
  • The emergence of such blocs would heighten instability in the region, posing serious concerns for India, given that West Asia is central to its energy security and hosts a large expatriate workforce.
• Strategic Deterrence for Pakistan: Pakistan may interpret the pact as a form of deterrence against India, especially in the event of a future military confrontation or as a shield in response to its involvement in cross-border terrorism.
• Impact on IMEC: Projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) could face uncertainties if Saudi priorities tilt towards Pakistan, affecting India’s strategic and economic outreach in the region.
• Diplomatic Tightrope: India’s need to maintain close ties with both Saudi Arabia (for energy and investment) and Israel (for defence and technology) which will become more challenging.
• Pakistan’s Geopolitical Leverage: The pact allows Pakistan to gain legitimacy as a security provider in West Asia.
  • Symbolically, it strengthens Islamic solidarity narratives, with Pakistan positioning itself as a pan-Islamic security provider.
• Balancing Israel-Saudi Equations: India depends on Israel for defence, cyber, and intelligence cooperation, but a Saudi tilt toward Pakistan complicates this partnership.
  • India cannot afford to alienate either Israel (a top-5 defence supplier) or Saudi Arabia (a top-3 energy partner)

Implications for Other Stakeholders

• For Pakistan: The pact boosts its deterrence posture by signalling that Saudi backing extends even to nuclear dimensions. This discourages aggressive moves by adversaries like India or Israel.
  • Engaging into West Asian conflicts: This may draw Pakistan into West Asian conflicts, as it could be expected to support Saudi interests.
  • For Example: Pakistan is likely to get involved in Saudi-led conflicts in the region, including Yemen (Houthi insurgency), tensions with Iran, and challenges posed by Israel.

• For the United States: The agreement reflects the erosion of U.S. credibility as the Gulf’s security guarantor, as United States muted response to regional crises has pushed allies to diversify defence partnerships.
  • Abraham Accords: The pact comes against the backdrop of U.S. President Trump’s unsuccessful efforts to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords. 
  • Saudi Arabia has made clear it will not normalise ties with Israel until the Gaza war ends and progress is made on Palestinian statehood.
• For China: Beijing is a strategic winner, given its close ties with both Pakistan (via CPEC) and Saudi Arabia (via Belt and Road and energy deals). The pact allows China to expand its influence in the Gulf while sidelining the U.S.
• Energy Security Risks: Heightened instability in West Asia threatens global oil market stability.
• • India (importing ~60% of crude from the region) faces risks of price shocks, supply disruptions, and higher geopolitical premiums, with spillover effects on other major importers like China, Japan, and the EU.

Way Forward for India

• Engage Saudi Arabia Diplomatically: India must sustain high-level engagement through the Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). 
  • As the MEA recently underlined, India shares a “wide-ranging strategic partnership” with Saudi Arabia, one that has “deepened considerably” in recent years. 
  • New Delhi expects Riyadh to keep “mutual interests and sensitivities” in mind, which provides a diplomatic cushion to balance Saudi ties despite its pact with Pakistan.
• Leverage Economic Diplomacy: Advancing initiatives like the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC) can deepen economic interdependence with Riyadh. 
  • India’s growing involvement in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects also creates shared stakes that make Riyadh less likely to lean exclusively towards Pakistan.
• Strengthen Defence Preparedness: India must reinforce its security architecture by modernising border infrastructure, upgrading missile systems, and enhancing surveillance capabilities. 
  • The induction of the S-400 Triumf air defence system and the development of Pralay tactical missiles exemplify India’s commitment to maintaining a credible deterrent posture in an evolving regional security environment.
• Broaden Regional Partnerships: India should deepen cooperation with UAE and Oman through defence dialogues, maritime security, and economic initiatives. 
  • Such engagement would balance Saudi ties and provide a stabilising hedge against exclusive security blocs in West Asia.
• Diversify Energy Sources: India should pursue a balanced energy strategy by expanding renewable partnerships and green collaborations. 
  • Platforms such as the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and joint green hydrogen initiatives can anchor a sustainable and secure energy future while complementing traditional hydrocarbon ties.
  • India, as the world’s third-largest oil importer with rising demand, is Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading partner and crude buyer adds strategic leverage in energy
• Diaspora Leverage: Engage the large Indian workforce in Saudi Arabia (over 3 million) to enhance bilateral goodwill.
  • Protecting diaspora interests increases India’s strategic leverage in Saudi Arabia policy calculations.

Conclusion

The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact signals shifting power equations in West Asia, raising new security risks for India. To safeguard its interests, India must combine military readiness with strategic diplomacy and resilient energy partnerships.

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