While the government claims a 90% reduction in stubble-burning fire incidents since 2022, air pollution in Delhi continues to worsen.

Government Claim and Policy

• The government claims success due to a “carrot and stick” policy:
  • Stick: Imposing heavy fines on farmers.
  • Carrot: Providing subsidised machinery (like Happy Seeders and Super Seeders) and incentivising farmers to sell the residual stubble to thermal power plants for money.

The Information Gap and Data Manipulation

• Lack of Scientific Data: There is a lack of Mass Spectrograph Analysis to determine the precise chemical “DNA” of air pollutants and quantify the amount of stubble smoke present in the air.
• Satellite Data Flaws: The government relies on data from Polar Orbiting Satellites, which only pass over India once or twice daily, typically between 10:00 AM and 1:30 PM.
• Farmer Adaptation:  Farmers shifted burning to evenings to avoid detection by polar satellites, creating an illusion of reduced fire counts.
• Fire Counts as a Proxy: The government has used satellite-based fire counts as a proxy to measure reduction in stubble burning. 
• • Reports since 2020 showed a decline in visible fires in Punjab and Haryana, prompting the government to claim success.

Burnt Area as a True Metric

• Supreme Court Directive: In 2024, the Supreme Court instructed Environment Ministry bodies to use “burnt area” — the actual land area burned — rather than just fire counts, to more accurately gauge stubble burning trends.
• Real Reduction in Stubble Burning: Independent research found that the reduction in burnt area was only 30%, not 90%, with burnt area decreasing from 31,500 square kilometres in 2022 to 19,700 square kilometres in 2025.
• Data Transparency Issues: The Centre has not made year-wise burnt area data public. 
  • Different satellites have varying resolutions, making it difficult to determine the actual number of fires. 
  • Lack of transparency erodes public trust and casts doubt on government claims.

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Conclusion

The effective policy depends on truthful, transparent data and on anticipating how people may adapt to or circumvent new technologies and regulations.

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