Answer

Introduction

The 2026 LPG crisis has exposed that welfare expansion under Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana ensured access but not resilience, revealing gaps between entitlement, delivery systems, and the State’s ability to protect vulnerable households during external shocks.

Limitations of Welfare Schemes

• Access–Usage Gap: While connections were provided at scale, high refill costs prevented sustained usage among the poorest households.
  Eg: One-fourth PMUY beneficiaries took only one or no refill.
• Market Dependence: Welfare delivery relies heavily on global LPG supply chains, making it vulnerable to external disruptions beyond State control.
  Eg: 60% LPG imports, with 90% passing through Strait of Hormuz.
• Weak State Control: Transition from PDS-based kerosene to LPG reduced direct State responsibility in ensuring physical supply during crises.
• Inequitable Distribution: Social and spatial inequalities influence last-mile access, leading to exclusion even within welfare coverage.
  Eg: SC/ST households have 10–30% lower LPG access due to distributor biases.
• Gendered Burden: Women are named beneficiaries but lack control over affordability and supply, bearing the burden of fallback options.
  Eg: 14% households reverted to biomass during price rise.

Factors Responsible

• Design Focus: Welfare schemes prioritised expanding coverage rather than ensuring continuity and reliability under stress conditions.
• Inadequate Buffers: Absence of LPG-specific strategic reserves limits the State’s capacity to respond during supply shocks.
  Eg: India has crude reserves (~9.5 days) but no LPG buffer.
• Pricing Constraints: Subsidy design does not sufficiently protect the poorest from price volatility in LPG markets.
  Eg: ₹60 cylinder price rise in March 2026 reduced refill uptake.
• Infrastructure Gaps: Weak rural distribution networks and long booking cycles delay access for vulnerable populations.
  Eg: 45-day booking gap in rural areas.
• Policy Misalignment: Welfare schemes signal State accountability, but actual delivery depends on market systems not directly controlled by the State.

Way Forward

• Strategic Buffer: Creating dedicated 2-month LPG reserves can ensure uninterrupted supply during global disruptions.
• Supply Diversification: Reducing dependence on single geopolitical routes can improve energy security.
• Targeted Subsidy: Better-designed subsidies can ensure affordability for the poorest households during price shocks.
  Eg: Higher subsidy support for low-income frequent users.
• Alternative Energy: Promoting decentralised clean energy reduces reliance on LPG supply chains.
  Eg: Expansion of GOBARdhan biogas plants.
• Crisis Protocols: Institutionalised emergency frameworks can prioritise vulnerable groups during supply shortages.
  Eg: Public allocation rules and priority distribution systems.

Conclusion

Welfare schemes must move beyond access to ensure resilience, where entitlements remain effective even during crises. A robust architecture lies in aligning State responsibility with delivery capacity, ensuring dignity and security for vulnerable populations.

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