2023-24 El Niño Event – One of the Strongest on Record as per WMO Seasonal Climate Updates

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Context:

The 2023-24 El Nino event has peaked as one of the five strongest on record according to WMO.

El Niño is periodic warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean along the Peruvian Coast replacing the cold Humboldt current.
- It occurs every two to seven years on an average, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
- Impact:
  - It is associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US, and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa.
  - The low-level surface winds or the Easterlies weaken or in some cases, changes their direction and start blowing in the other direction (from west to east).
  - Societies and economies: Accurate seasonal forecasts helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health.
  - Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives

As per the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global mean temperature breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January.
World Meteorological Organisation issued the Global Seasonal Climate Update as per which,
- El Nino event 2023: It was strongest between November and January.
  - It displayed a peak value of about 2.0 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average sea-surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-2016 events.
- Impact:
  - The present El-Nino event will result in above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans
  - It is expected to lead to above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months, and influence regional rainfall patterns.
- Peaking: There is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May with above-normal temperatures predicted over almost all land areas but it will be weakened with an 80% likelihood of neutral conditions developing during April to June.
- Emergence of La nina: There is a higher chance of La Nina developing later in the year again
- Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

Also Read: Changing Rainfall Patterns In India’s Sub-Districts

News source: The hindu

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