A Multipolar World With Bipolar Characteristics

The post–Cold War unipolar international order, dominated by the USA after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, is transitioning towards a multipolar system, driven by China’s economic–technological rise, U.S. strategic retrenchment, and Russia’s post–Ukraine assertiveness, increasingly structured around United States–China strategic rivalry.

About The Present Situation

• Emergence of Three Great Powers: The contemporary global system is shaped by three key actors- the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Russia. 
  • According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, 2024), the United States and China remain the top two military spenders globally (approximately $997 billion and $314 billion, respectively). 
  • China’s defence modernisation, including the rapid expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), underscores its transition from a regional to a global strategic actor. 
  • Meanwhile, Russia, though economically constrained, maintains relevance through nuclear capability, expansive geography, and strategic resource leverage.
• United States Strategic Recalibration: In the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), the US has reaffirmed its primacy in the Western Hemisphere while signalling a retrenchment from Europe. 
  • The document’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine (historically a 19th-century principle asserting U.S. dominance in the Americas) is now framed as preventing extra–regional influence (notably Chinese) in Latin America and the Caribbean. 
  • This is evident in the largest U.S. naval deployment in the Caribbean in decades in late 2025, aimed at deterring Chinese and Russian strategic advances near its sphere of influence. 
  • At the same time, the US has stressed burden-sharing with NATO allies, shifting long-standing security expectations.
• United States–China Systemic Rivalry: China’s economic ascent has brought it to roughly 66% of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (World Bank estimates).
  • It has translated economic might into technological and military power, including enhancements in artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, space capabilities, and dual-use technologies. 
  • China’s influence in global institutions, such as increased voting shares in the World Bank and leadership in Asian Development Bank projects, reflects a gradual reshaping of global governance. 
  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also deepened economic and diplomatic ties across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, positioning China as a central driver of infrastructure financing and soft power expansion.
• Russia as a Swing Great Power: Russia’s strategic utility arises from its unique positioning between the United States and China. 
  • Despite economic limitations, it wields significant nuclear deterrence, energy exports, and geostrategic leverage. 
  • Its actions in Ukraine, resistance to NATO expansion, and realignment of Western sanctions have pushed Russia closer to China in certain areas, though it remains cautious about being a junior partner. 
  • Russia’s energy supplies, especially in Europe, continue to influence diplomatic calculations, exemplified by recurring debates over European dependence on Russian gas, even in the face of sanctions.
• Fluid Multipolarity in Practice: Unlike the rigid ideological blocs of the Cold War, contemporary global alignments are transactional and issue-based. 
  • Strategic cooperation is shaped not only by state actors but also by non-state actors, technology platforms, and private capital flows. 
  • For example, big tech companies in the U.S. and China now play pivotal roles in digital governance standards, influencing how norms around data privacy, AI ethics, and cybersecurity are set globally.

Structural Fault Lines in the Contemporary Multipolar Order

• Strategic Instability: The absence of entrenched norms for major power behaviour increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation. 
  • Flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait — where U.S. naval transits have increased alongside Chinese military drills near Taiwan — reflect this volatility. 
  • Similarly, the war in Ukraine and tensions in the South China Sea expose fault lines where great-power competition intersects with local conflicts.
• Erosion of Alliance Certainty: Increasing U.S. emphasis on burden-sharing has unsettled traditional alliances. 
  • Within NATO, debates over defence expenditure and troop deployments reflect divergent threat perceptions among members. 
  • In the Indo-Pacific, partners such as Japan and South Korea seek clearer commitments as the US balances regional priorities.
• Weaponisation of Interdependence: Economic interconnectedness is being leveraged for strategic gains. 
  • Sanctions on Russia have intensified financial fragmentation, while technology embargoes on China’s semiconductor sector signal a competition over technological supremacy. 
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that such fragmentation could significantly dampen global economic growth.
• Weakening of Multilateral Institutions: Persistent deadlock in the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute-settlement mechanism and stalemate in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) highlight the declining effectiveness of global governance in managing interstate tensions, climate challenges, and development inequities.
• Pressure on Middle Powers: Countries like Japan, Germany, Brazil, and India face increasing expectations to align with competing power hubs. 
  • This pressure often erodes policy flexibility and challenges their ability to maintain independent strategic trajectories.

Impact of Present Situation on India

• Expanded Yet Constrained Strategic Space: Under multipolarity, India enjoys broader diplomatic engagement opportunities. However, intensifying U.S.–China rivalry constrains autonomy, particularly as contestation in the Indo-Pacific affects India’s strategic calculus.
• China-Related Security Challenges: India’s security environment is complicated by persistent India–China tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), amplified by broader U.S.–China competition over influence in Asia.
• Complex Russia Equation: India’s longstanding defence and energy relationship with Russia faces strategic complexity due to Russia’s closer security alignment with China. Nevertheless, bilateral trade has risen in areas like defence supplies and critical machinery even after the Ukraine conflict.
• Economic Opportunities and Vulnerabilities: India’s adoption of the “China+1” strategy has seen diversification in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and renewable components, partially offsetting supply-chain risks. 
  • Initiatives such as Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes have enhanced domestic manufacturing competitiveness. Still, global volatility continues to impact export demand.
• Leadership of the Global South: India’s G20 Presidency (2023) enabled it to foreground issues like equitable vaccine access, climate finance, and inclusive recovery frameworks, reinforcing its role as a key voice for developing countries.

India’s Multi-Alignment Strategy amid Intensifying Great-Power Rivalry

• Strategic Autonomy as Core Doctrine: Rooted in Nehruvian non-alignment and adapted to contemporary realities, Strategic Autonomy remains central to Indian foreign policy, resisting rigid bloc alignments while engaging diverse partners based on interests.
• Multi-alignment Diplomacy: India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) enhances cooperation on maritime security, technology, and supply chains, while its role in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) preserves engagement across Eurasia and the Global South.
• Diversified Strategic Partnerships: India has deepened defence and economic ties with Japan, Australia, France, and ASEAN states, underscoring a balance between Western partners and regional groupings without exclusive commitments.
• Indo-Pacific Engagement: India advocates a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific, resisting exclusionary blocs while enhancing interoperability with like-minded democracies.
• Economic Resilience Initiatives: Through PLI schemes, digital public infrastructure, and logistics reforms, India aims to integrate into resilient global value chains that are less dependent on any single power.
• Multilateral Reform Advocacy: India consistently champions United Nations Security Council reform, arguing that representation should reflect contemporary geopolitical realities, not post–World War II hierarchies.

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Way Forward

• Reinvigorating Multilateralism: Reform the United Nations and World Trade Organization (WTO) to ensure broader representational equity, procedural effectiveness, and responsiveness to 21st-century challenges such as cyber threats, pandemics, and climate change.
• Leveraging Emerging Global Forums: Platforms such as the Group of Twenty (G20) and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) — championed by India — can shape inclusive governance, sustainable development, and climate finance frameworks.
• Managing Competition Through Rules: Develop global norms and cooperative frameworks for cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI), space governance, maritime conduct, and economic coercion to reduce strategic friction.
• Empowering Middle Powers: Encourage collective initiatives among middle powers to moderate bipolar pressures and provide alternative governance inputs.
• India’s Leadership Role: India can guide post-pandemic economic recovery, climate action agendas, and inclusive technology governance by aligning developmental goals with systemic reforms.

Conclusion

The emerging international order is multipolar in structure yet bipolar in behaviour, shaped by great-power competition and shifting alliances. For India, the strategic imperative is to uphold and operationalise Strategic Autonomy, strengthen diversified partnerships, and leverage its role as a bridge between the West and the Global South to convert uncertainty into influence and stability.

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