Census Delay And Concerning Impacts

Recently, the Budget 2024-25 recently allocated ₹1,309.46 crore for the Census, a significant reduction from 2021-22 when ₹3,768 crore was allocated for the decadal exercise, thereby indicating the considerable delay.

• The 2021 Census, initially scheduled to begin in 2020, is still on hold. 

About Census

A Census is Constitutionally mandated in India. There are repeated references to the Census exercise in the Constitution in the context of reorganization of constituencies for Parliament and State Assemblies. 

• Historical Background:
  • Ancient and Medieval Period:
    • Rigveda: Rig Veda reveals that some kind of population count was maintained during 800-600 BC in India.
    • Arthashastra: Written by Kautilya in the 3rd Century BC prescribed the collection of population statistics as a measure of state policy for taxation.
    • Ain-i-Akbari: During the regime of the Mughal king Akbar, the administrative report ‘Ain-e-Akbari’ also included comprehensive data pertaining to population, industry, wealth and many other characteristics.
  • Pre-Independence Period: The history of the census began with 1800 when England had begun its Census.
    • In its continuation, a census was conducted in Allahabad (1824) and in Banaras (1827-28) by James Prinsep.
    • The first complete census of an Indian city was conducted in 1830 by Henry Walter in Dacca (now Dhaka).
    • First Non-synchronous Census: It was conducted in India in 1872 during the reign of Governor-General Lord Mayo.
    • First Synchronous Census: The first synchronous census was taken under British rule in 1881, by W.C. Plowden (Census Commissioner of India).
  • Independence Period: The first census of Independent India was conducted in 1951, which was the seventh census in its continuous series. 
    • The enumeration period of this Census was from 9th to 28th, February 1951.

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• Conducted by: The decennial Census is conducted by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs.
  • Until 1951, the Census Organisation was set up on an ad-hoc basis for each Census.
• Mentioned in: The population census is a Union subject under Article 246 of India Constitution.
  • It is listed at serial number 69 of the seventh schedule of the constitution.
• Periodicity: It is not the legal requirement but the utility of the Census that has made it a permanent regular exercise. 
  • The Constitution does not say when the Census has to be carried out, or what the frequency of this exercise should be. 
  • The Census of India Act of 1948, which provides the legal framework for carrying out the Census, also does not mention its timing or periodicity.
    • There is, therefore, no Constitutional or legal requirement that a Census has to be done every 10 years. 
    • However, this exercise has been carried out in the first year of every decade, since 1881. 
      • The 2021 Census had to be postponed, due to COVID-19 outbreak, the first time in the 150-year history of India’s census operations. 
      • Most other countries also follow the 10-year cycle for their Census. 
      • There are countries like Australia that do it every five years.
• Schedule: The Census is essentially a two-step process involving a house-listing and numbering exercise followed by the actual population enumeration. 
  • The house-listing and numbering takes place in the middle of the year prior to the Census year. The population enumeration happens in two to three weeks of February.
    • The numbers revealed by the Census represent the population of India as on the stroke of midnight on March 1 in the Census year. 
    • To account for the births and deaths that might have happened during the enumeration period in February, the enumerators go back to the households in the first week of March to carry out revisions.
  • There are several intermediate steps as well, and preparations for the Census usually begin three to four years in advance. The compilation and publication of the entire data also takes months to a few years.
• Process Followed: 
  • Questions and Forms: Census data is taken by visiting each and every household and gathering particulars by asking questions and filling up census forms.
  • Confidential Information: The information collected during the process is confidential. In fact, this information is not even accessible to the courts of law.
  • Transportation to Data Processing Centers: The forms are transported to data processing centres located at 15 cities across the country.
  • Intelligent Character Recognition Software (ICR): This technology came in India in Census 2001 and has become the benchmark for censuses all around the globe.
  • Scanning and Extraction of Data: This involves the scanning of the census forms at high speed and extracting the data automatically using computer software.

Need for Conducting Census

The Census produces primary, authentic data that becomes the backbone of every statistical enterprise, informing all planning, administrative and economic decision-making processes. 

• To Shape Future Course: Population Census provides basic statistics on state of human resources, demography, culture and economic structure at local, regional and national level. All this information is vital to guide and shape the future course of the nation.
• Impact on Development: It is the basis on which every social, economic and other indicator is built. Lack of reliable data has the potential to upset every indicator on India, and affect the efficacy and efficiency of all kinds of developmental initiatives.
• Social Justice: In the absence of a Census after 2011, a majority of our country’s population is unable to access several schemes, benefits and services. 
• Women Empowerment: The implementation of the women’s Reservation Act passed in the Parliament last year, reserving 33% of seats in Parliament and Assemblies for women, awaits the conduct of the Census.
• Delimitation of Constituencies: The Constitution (Eighty-fourth Amendment) Act of 2001 was specifically made that requires that constituency boundaries be redrawn only after the first Census conducted after 2026. 
• Clarifications on National Population Register (NPR): The inclusion of the new questions in NPR has been opposed by some States and citizen groups as the NPR is the first step toward compilation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC), according to the Citizenship Rules 2003. 
  • The Centre has however clarified that NPR data will not be used in the preparation of the NRC.
  • The draft form of the NPR for the next Census has questions such as “mother tongue, place of birth of father and mother and last place of residence” — which were not in the NPR of 2011 Census prepared in 2010. 
    • Creation of NPR: To create a comprehensive database of usual residents in the country, the NPR with details of persons usually residing in villages and towns and other rural and urban areas was first prepared in 2010 during the Houselisting and Housing Census phase of Census 2011. 
    • It was updated in 2015 incorporating changes due to birth, death and migration. This process was put through under the Citizenship Act, 1955. 
• On Caste Information: There is growing demand for a caste-based census to be conducted by the Centre to precisely understand the economic well-being of the marginalised communities. 
  • The Centre has to take a call now on whether or not to collect caste information in the next Census.

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Significance of Conducting Census

The Indian Census is the largest single source of a variety of statistical information on different characteristics of the people of India that can be used by researchers and demographers to analyse growth and trends of population and make projections.

• Better Governance: Census data provides policymakers and decision-makers with accurate and reliable information enabling them to formulate effective policies, allocate resources, and plan for various sectors such as education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social welfare.
• Demarcation and Electoral Representation: Census data plays an important role in determining the number of seats and boundaries for electoral constituencies and ensures fair representation and proportional allocation of political power based on population size and distribution.  
• Giving Grants and Resource Allocation: Census data helps in the equitable distribution of resources and services based on population size and demographic basis and helps in determining the allocation of funds for public services like schools, hospitals, roads, and other essential facilities.  
  • The Finance Commission provides grants to the states on the basis of population figures available from the Census data.
  • The Census data helps in understanding social dynamics, identifying disparities, and developing strategies to address social and economic issues.  
  • The census data is also significant for business houses and industries for strengthening and planning their business for penetration into more uncovered areas.
• Monitor Changes: Regular conduct of censuses provide a comprehensive and updated data of population. They help to monitor changes in population growth, fertility rates, mortality rates, migration trends, and other demographic indicators over time. 
• Environmental Aspect: The censuses and surveys are being made available for information and can help to analyse the environment statistics including agriculture, air and climate, energy, environment expenditure, fisheries, water, etc.

Concerns with Delayed Census

The delay in the 2021 Census significantly impacts India’s political and administrative framework, especially the balance of Lok Sabha seats. 

• Delayed Delimitation: The postponement of the census delays the delimitation process, which is crucial for redrawing Lok Sabha constituencies based on the latest population data.
  • The current composition of Lok Sabha is based on the 1971 Census, and further delay continues the use of outdated data, affecting fair representation.
• Imbalanced Representation: States with faster population growth may continue to be underrepresented, while states with slower growth may retain disproportionate representation.
  • Northern states like Uttar Pradesh may gain more seats at the expense of southern states, which have slower population growth rates.
• Increased Socio-Political Tensions: Potential increase in regional disparities and tensions, particularly between northern and southern states, regarding resource allocation and political power.
  • Southern states express concerns over losing political influence due to the reapportionment based on outdated population data.
• Obsolete Policy Frameworks: Policies based on outdated data may not address current demographic realities, leading to inefficiencies.
  • Health and education policies might fail to cater to the actual needs of the population, impacting service delivery and planning.
• Policy and Planning Challenges: Accurate population data is essential for effective policy formulation and implementation of development programs.
  • Delayed census data affects the distribution of funds and resources, impacting programs like the National Food Security Act, which relies on up-to-date population figures.
  • The Union government has to allocate annual Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) funds to each state based on the number of households and labourers. This data is arrived at from the census. However, in the absence of such a number, the Union government allocates funds based on each state government’s expenditure and unspent funds from the previous financial year.

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Action Taken by the Government to Conduct Census at Earliest

To conduct census at earliest after the delay due to COVID-19 pandemic, following actions have been taken:

• Provisions in the 2025-26 Census Budget: It is imperative that sufficient provisions are made in the 2025-26 Census Budget so that the 2021 Census that has been postponed could be held at the earliest, in 2026, on completion of the first phase in 2025 that would include house listing and housing census and updating of the National Population Register (NPR). 
• Conduct of Preliminary Arrangements: The preliminary arrangements for the Census, such as preparing updated maps and lists of administrative areas, pre-testing draft Census questionnaires, training of officers and core staff, who would train the large number of field staff in collecting the Census data digitally, i.e., on mobile app, planning the field work, logistics, budgeting have all been taking place in the Census Directorates in States and Union Territories for the past few years in anticipation of putting through a Census.
• Budgetary allocation: The amount of ₹1,309.46 crore allocated in the 2024-25 budget could be utilised by the Census department to carry out several preliminary activities such as firming up of the enumeration areas, questionnaire finalisation, refresher training of the core staff in the proposed digital census, and tabulation plan.

Way Forward

Expediting the census process is crucial for fair representation in Parliament and effective governance. Following are the few suggested measures that need to be adopted: 

• Need for Digital-first Census: The upcoming Census will also be the first Census both in digital mode and through paper schedules (questionnaires/forms). 
  • The Home Ministry informed the Parliament in December that mobile and web applications for the collection of data and a portal (CMMS) for management and monitoring of various Census-related activities had been developed at a cost of ₹24.84 crore so far.
  • Countries like the US successfully conducted digital censuses during the pandemic.
• Phased Census Approach: The census could be conducted over 1-2 years, starting with urban areas in 2024 and rural areas in 2025. A phased approach allows for better resource allocation and addresses logistical challenges in different regions.
  • Brazil successfully used this phased approach for its 2022 census. 
• Bridge the Gap: Data from surveys like the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and economic surveys should be utilised to inform policy decisions until the full census is conducted. 
  • The National Statistical Commission has recommended that data from multiple surveys be integrated to provide interim insights for policy planning until the census is completed.
• Limited Census with Essential Indicators: There is a need to prioritise collecting data. A limited census focusing on essential indicators could provide crucial data for governance.
• Decentralisation of Census Operations: Empower states to conduct census operations with central coordination to expedite the process. 
  • The Supreme Court in Union of India vs Association for Democratic Reforms (2002) emphasised the importance of decentralisation in governance. 
• Sub-Categorisation: Justice Rohini Commission said that a nationwide socio-economic caste census is necessary to evolve scientific criteria for such sub-categorisation.
  • This would also be necessary for all States, which have their own State-level Other Backward Classes (OBCs) lists, given the wide variety in caste composition.
  • The Rohini Commission was instituted on October 2, 2017 to ensure a more equitable distribution of reservation benefits among the OBCs in India.

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