Climate Engineering and National Security Risks

Context

Climate engineering is expected to be cheap relative to the cost of ending greenhouse gas emissions, however, it is not oblivious to risks.

• African countries called for a moratorium on climate engineering, urging all precautions at the United Nations Environment Assembly in March 2024.
• The United States pressed for a formal scientific group to study the risks and benefits before making any decisions.

What is Climate Engineering?

• Climate engineering is the intentional large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system to counter climate change.
• Techniques used:
  • Carbon dioxide removal techniques (CDR) involve pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locking it away. 
    • It involves five approaches: Direct air capture, land-use management through afforestation/reforestation, sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by biomass, increasing the uptake of CO2 by the ocean, and enhancing natural weathering processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
    • Humans are putting over 37 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually and pulling only about 2 billion tons (0.1%) of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere yearly.
  • Solar Radiation management (SRM) employs technologies to rapidly cool the Earth’s temperature by simulating the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions and enhancing the reflectivity of marine clouds.
    • Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: It involves spraying reflective sulfate aerosol particles (sulphur dioxide) into the stratosphere with high-altitude airplanes, tethered balloons etc.
      • The idea mimics the natural atmospheric sulfate injections caused by large volcanic eruptions, which generally result in a short-duration cooling of the planet.
      • Volcanic  eruptions spread into the atmosphere tiny particles ie. “aerosols.” Light-colored aerosol particles can reflect incoming energy from the sun in cloud-free air and dark particles can absorb it. 
    • Marine cloud brightening (MCB): It uses sea salt to “seed” or stimulate the formation of low-altitude clouds over the ocean, enhance their reflectivity and extend their lifetimes.

The Risk Associated with Climate Engineering Techniques

• Free Driver Problem: 

  • The expensive technology is being developed by a very small group of countries, firms and academics, meaning that one country could unilaterally affect the world’s climate.
    • Example: Australia is currently exploring the feasibility of rapidly cooling the Great Barrier Reef to prevent its demise.

• Transboundary effects:  

  • A climate engineering project in one country will likely affect temperature and rainfall in neighbouring countries, affecting crops, water supplies and flood risk.
    • A UNESCO report on climate engineering urged countries belonging to a geographic area to make regional agreements to avoid risks of unequal spatial distribution of effects. 

• Climate Scapegoat: 

  • Once climate engineering is deployed, countries may be more likely to blame climate engineering for extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, regardless of the evidence.

• A Potential tool for Weaponization: 

  • Climate engineering techniques can be used as a weapon for political or economic interests.

• Geopolitical Conflicts:

  • It can reignite the north-south divide. Some countries would benefit from climate engineering and thus be more resilient to geopolitical strife, while others would be harmed and thus left more vulnerable.

• Cause of Conflict: 

  • Climate engineering may spark disputes among countries, leading to sanctions and demands for compensation.

• Unintended Consequences: 

• • Large-scale climate engineering experiments have yet to be conducted, and much information about its effects relies solely on climate models. 
    • Thus, various unknown and unintended consequences must be assessed, and the risks must be measured thoroughly.

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