Data Point

September 16, 2023

GS Paper III Indian Economy

In August, India experienced a continued decline in its foreign trade, marked by:
- contraction in goods exports for the seventh consecutive month
- an estimated drop in services exports for the first time in over a year
- a 10-month high in the goods trade deficit
Decline in Services exports: It had been growing strongly at 26.7% in 2022-23, showed a slight decrease of 0.4% in August, totaling $26.39 billion.
- This decline raised concerns about a potential widening current account deficit for the quarter.
Merchandise import bill: While it decreased by 5.23% year-on-year to $58.64 billion, it was 10.85% higher than July’s $52.9 billion import figure.
- This increase led to a goods trade deficit of $24.16 billion in August, which was only 2.8% lower than the deficit in August 2022 but almost 17% higher than July’s $20.67 billion deficit.
Increase in trade deficit: The significant increase in imports during August resulted in a trade deficit reaching its highest level in ten months.
- With the monthly merchandise trade deficit being notably higher in July-August compared to April-June 2023, India’s current account deficit is likely to expand during this quarter (Q2). This expansion could exceed the expected range of $10-12 billion seen in Q1.
Oil prices hitting exports: Nearly half of the decline in exports this year has been driven by the decline in petroleum prices.
- Though export volumes of petroleum products were up 6% during April to July, prices were 27% lower than a year ago.