El Niño 2026 Outlook: Rising Sea Temperatures, ENSO Phases & Impact on Indian Monsoon

Rising sea surface temperatures in March 2026 indicate increasing probability of El Niño, signalling potential global warming and weather disruptions.

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Recent Impact of El Niño Odds

• Global Temperature Rise: Near-record sea surface temperatures indicate intensifying global warming trends and a possible transition to a warmer climate phase.
  • Average sea surface temperature over the extra-polar oceans, spanning 60 degrees south to 60 degrees north, reached 20.97 degrees Celsius in March, the second-highest level on record for the month, behind only March 2024.
• Extreme Weather Events: Increasing El Niño likelihood is associated with heatwaves, droughts, and abnormal weather patterns across regions like Europe, North America, and Asia.
• Cryosphere Stress: Record-low Arctic sea ice levels reflect accelerating climate stress linked to warming oceans and changing atmospheric conditions.

About ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation)

• El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a periodic ocean-atmosphere interaction in the equatorial Pacific influencing global weather and monsoon systems. 
• Phases of ENSO: El Niño represents warming of ocean waters, La Niña indicates cooling, while neutral phase reflects normal conditions without major anomalies.

Difference between El Niño and La Niña

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ENSO and Indian Monsoon 

• Rainfall Patterns: El Niño leads to deficient rainfall as seen in the 2002 drought, while La Niña enhances rainfall as in the 1988 monsoon.
• Onset of Monsoon: El Niño delays the onset of monsoon, disrupting agricultural cycles as observed in 2014.
• Regional Variations: ENSO causes uneven rainfall distribution, leading to simultaneous droughts and floods, as seen during the 2006 El Niño.
• Monsoon Depressions: La Niña increases monsoon depressions, resulting in higher rainfall and occasional flooding, as witnessed in 2010.
• • During rare “triple-dip” La Niña period from 2020 to 2022 the Indian summer monsoon rainfall was consistently above or near normal

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