Exit Polls

Context:

After voting for Karnataka elections ended, exit polls are out.

About Exit Polls:

An exit poll asks voters which political party they are supporting after they have cast their votes in an election.
An exit poll is supposed to give an indication of which way the winds are blowing in an election, along with the issues, personalities, and loyalties that have influenced voters.
It differs from an opinion poll, which is held before the elections. An opinion poll is a pre-election survey to gather voters’ views on a range of election-related issues.
Exit polls in India are conducted by a number of organisations, often in tie-ups with media organisations. The surveys can be conducted face to face or online.

Rules governing exit polls in India

The Election Commission issued guidelines under Article 324 of the Constitution, prohibiting newspapers and news channels from publishing results of pre-election surveys and exit polls between a stipulated time period with respect to election in 1998.
The EC mandated that while carrying the results of exit and opinion polls, newspapers and channels should disclose the sample size of the electorate, the details of polling methodology, the margin of error and the background of the polling agency.
In 2010, restrictions were imposed only on exit polls through the introduction of Section 126(A) in the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
In India, results of exit polls for a particular election are not allowed to be published till the last vote has been cast.

How do other countries deal with pre-election and exit polls?

European Union:
- Sixteen EU countries ban reporting of opinion polls, with ban timeframes ranging from a full month to just 24 hours before polling day.
- Italy, Slovakia, and Luxembourg have a ban of more than 7 days.
- France used to have a 7-day blackout, but it was overturned by a court order, and the ban has been reduced to 24 hours ahead of voting day.

United Kingdom:
- There are no restrictions on publishing results of opinion polls.
- Results of exit polls can’t be published until the voting is over.

United States:
- Publication of opinion polls is allowed at any time.
- News organizations commissioning the polls voluntarily impose a restriction on not reporting likely outcomes from exit polls before voting is over on election day.

News Source: Indian Express