Arctic Ocean Could Experience ‘Ice-Free’ Summer Days By 2030: Study

Context: 

According to the paper published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment the Arctic Ocean could go without ice for the first time by 2030 under all emission scenarios 

Arctic Ocean Could Experience ‘Ice-Free’ Summer Days By 2030: Key Findings of Study:

• Variation in Frequency: The frequency at which ice-free conditions occur could vary depending on future warming levels. 
  • For instance, if ice-free conditions occur for warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, they are unlikely to reoccur for several decades.
• Resilient Arctic: The paper also said the Arctic is resilient and can return to normalcy if the atmosphere cools down.
• Projections: Model projections show a decline in the probability of the Arctic facing ice-free conditions when temperatures go down by 2050 by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
• Declining of Ice cover: Arctic Ocean ice cover, which includes the sea ice area, extent, and thickness has declined since the beginning of satellite observations in 1978.
  • Reasons: Rapid Arctic sea ice cover decline is linked to growing carbon emissions and global warming.

Arctic Ocean Map

Reasons for Fast Rate of Ice melting in the Arctic Ocean

• Albedo Feedback Loop: When the amount of global ice decreases, Earth’s reflectivity rises, absorbing more solar radiation and causing the surface to warm.
• Darker Ocean Surface: As dark ice replaces bright Arctic ice, less incoming solar energy is reflected, which increases heat and ice loss.
• Climate Change: The ice is broken up and distributed by wind, ocean currents, and an extreme heat wave, accelerating the melting process.
• Counter-clockwise circulation: Cyclones that enter Siberia produce anticlockwise winds and drift ice. This pattern reduces the amount of ice that flows across the Farm Strait, east of Greenland.

Significance of Arctic Ocean Ice:

• Maintain Earth’s Energy Balance:  They play an essential role in keeping polar regions cool and maintaining Earth’s energy balance.
• Keeping Air cool: Keeps the air cool by forming a barrier between cold air above and relatively warmer water below.
• Preservation of Biodiversity: Changes in sea ice can affect biodiversity and impact mammals such as polar bears and walruses.
• Indigenous Population culture and tradition: Affects the traditional subsistence hunting lifestyle of indigenous populations such as Yup’ik, Iñupiat, and Inuit.

Potential Impacts of Arctic Ice Melting

• Coastal erosion: Over the Arctic Ocean, sea ice absorbs wave impacts, limiting coastline erosion.
  • As sea ice recedes further from adjacent landmasses, late-summer and autumn storms generate potent waves that crash into shore.
• Rising sea level: Increased wave action generated by sea ice melt may bend ice shelves, increasing the likelihood of glacial retreat. 
  • Glaciers that have lost their ice fronts flow faster, and because this process delivers new ice into the ocean, sea level rises, potentially leading to coastal flooding. 
• Global Warming: Sea ice loss leads to increased permafrost thaw, which drives the release of carbon dioxide and methane—an even more potent greenhouse gas. The retreat of sea ice exposes more significant expanses of darker ocean water, which absorbs more solar radiation than white sea ice, perpetuating the global warming effect.

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