IMD Rules Out El Nino For 2025 Monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out the possibility of El Nino during the 2025 monsoon season.

Potential Weather Trends for 2025

Above-Normal Summer Temperatures:
- IMD predicts higher temperatures from April to June.
- Eastern India may see up to 10 heatwave days.
Monsoon Uncertainty:
- Regional factors, such as the Indian Ocean’s conditions, will play a key role.
- IMD’s April forecast will provide a clearer picture of monsoon rainfall expectations.

Definition: El Nino is a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather patterns.
Rainfall Effects: Causes reduced rainfall over South Asia and Indonesia while increasing rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.
Wind Changes: Weakens or reverses the easterly trade winds, altering weather systems.
Temperature Rise: Leads to higher-than-normal temperatures, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves.

El Nino 2023-24: Led to a rainfall deficit in India and higher global temperatures.
Current Forecasts (2025):
- The ongoing El Nino is expected to end by April 2025.
- La Nina could develop during the second half of the monsoon season, influencing rainfall distribution.
- NOAA predicts over a 70% chance of La Nina forming between September and November 2024.

Aspect	El Niño	La Niña	ENSO-Neutral
Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs)	Warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific	Cooler than normal in the central and eastern Pacific	Near average SSTs with no significant warming or cooling
Wind Patterns	Weaker easterly trade winds	Stronger easterly trade winds	Normal trade wind strength
Monsoon Rainfall (South Asia)	Decreased rainfall, leading to drought conditions	Increased rainfall, leading to floods	Variable rainfall, but generally near normal
Oceanic Conditions	Reduced upwelling, leading to lower nutrient levels	Enhanced upwelling, increasing nutrient availability	Balanced oceanic conditions
Impact on Global Climate	Warmer global temperatures, increased droughts in some regions, heavy rainfall in others	Cooler global temperatures, more storms and hurricanes in some regions	Moderate climate effects, but still capable of influencing weather patterns
Effect on Fisheries	Decline in fish populations due to reduced nutrients	Increase in fish populations due to upwelling	Stable fish populations

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