The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual review has given India’s national accounts statistics, which includes key figures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA), a grade of ‘C’.

• Overall, across all data categories, India has received a grade of ‘B’. 
• There are four grades A, B, C and D with following indication
  • A: Data are comprehensive, reliable, and fully adequate to support effective surveillance.
  • B: Data contain certain limitations but remain broadly sufficient for surveillance purposes.
  • C: Data have multiple shortcomings that moderately hinder surveillance quality and accuracy.
  • D:Data suffers from major deficiencies that significantly obstruct effective surveillance.

What the ‘C’ Grade Signifies

• Indicates methodological shortcomings despite regular data availability.
• Weaknesses reduce cross-country comparability and affect macroeconomic surveillance.
• Represents the second-lowest grade, unchanged from last year’s assessment.

Key Issues Highlighted by the IMF

• Outdated Base Year (2011–12): Both GDP and CPI rely on an old production and consumption structure.
  • The current basket no longer reflects India’s contemporary economy, digital services, or consumption patterns.
• Inadequate Deflators: Persistent reliance on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as a deflator due to the absence of a full Producer Price Index (PPI).
  • Weakens estimation of real GDP, especially for services.
• Production–Expenditure Discrepancies: IMF notes “sizeable discrepancies” between the production and expenditure approaches.
  • Reflects under-coverage of informal sector activity and gaps in expenditure data collection.
• Limited Seasonal Adjustment: Quarterly GDP figures lack robust seasonal adjustment techniques.
  • Makes trend interpretation difficult and affects policy analysis.
• Need for Better Statistical Techniques: Calls for upgraded modelling practices, improved granularity, and more detailed sectoral breakdowns especially in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and quarterly GDP categories.

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Efforts to improve NAS estimation

• Base Year Revision Efforts: MoSPI is undertaking a comprehensive update of the GDP and CPI base years to improve the relevance of national statistics.
• MoSPI will release the estimates with a new base year of 2022-23 on February 27, 2026.
• Methodological Modernisation: Work is ongoing to upgrade estimation techniques, expand data coverage, and integrate high-frequency administrative datasets, aiming to strengthen real-sector measurement.
• Expected Release Timeline: The government indicates that the revised statistical series will likely be introduced by early to mid-2026.
• IMF’s Assessment: The IMF acknowledges India’s progress, stating that reforms to enhance real-sector statistics are steadily advancing, reflecting stronger institutional capacity.

Conclusion

NAS’s ‘C’ grade underscores the urgency for statistical modernisation, but ongoing reforms, updated base years, and improved methodologies signal a clear shift toward stronger, more credible national economic statistics.

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