What’s Next for India-Iran Relations After President Ebrahim Raisi Death?

Context

The recent death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in the Dizmar forest in East Azarbaijan Province comes at an explosive moment in world affairs, with domestic and global implications.

About Ebrahim Raisi

• Birth: Raisi was born on December 14, 1960 in a clerical family in Mashhad, Iran’s holiest city. 
• Education: He was educated in Islamic law and jurisprudence.
• Career: 
  • 1985: He became the deputy prosecutor in Tehran (capital of Iran)  when he was only 25.
  • 1989-2016: He held several senior positions in Iran’s government during these years; Tehran’s prosecutor from 1989 to 1994, First Deputy Chief Justice of Iran from 2004 to to 2014, Attorney-General of Iran from 2014 to 2016.
  • 2017: He stood for presidency, presenting himself as an anti-corruption fighter but failed.
  • 2019: He was appointed to the high- profile job of judiciary chief. He was also elected deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the 88-member clerical body responsible for electing the next Supreme Leader.
  • 2021: He contested the 2021 Presidential election and secured a victory.
• Contribution: 
  • Ties with Russia & China: He shifted focus from the west developing links with China and Russia. 
    • He visited China in 2023 and met the Chinese President. Iran has backed Russia in its war in Ukraine, supplying drones and participating in the creation of new shipping and rail routes, seeking to weaken sanctions.
  • Relations with Saudi Arabia: Iran resumed diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023 after a seven-year rift, in a deal brokered by China. 
  • Support to Palestine: The Gaza war led to Iran launching hundreds of missiles and rockets directly at Israel in April 2023 and Raisi emphasised Iran’s support for Palestinians, a centrepiece of its foreign policy since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

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• Allegations Faced: 
  • Raisi was sanctioned by the US in 2019, which cited his role in human rights violations.
  • In 2018, Amnesty International accused him of being a member of a “death commission” that forcibly disappeared and executed thousands of political dissidents in the late 1980s.
  • His presidency witnessed a crackdown on mass protests after the 2022 killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, strict implementation of women’s dress codes, increased uranium enrichment, and escalating military conflicts with Israel and the West.

India-Iran Relations during Ebrahim Raisi’s Years in Power

• Connectivity Projects: 
  • He was key to the conclusion of India’s major investments on Iran’s Chabahar Port, and key to India’s connectivity ambitions with Russia through Central Asia. 
  • Recent deal signed for India to operate Chabahar Port for the next 10 years is a major geoeconomic breakthrough for the two countries.
• Geo-economic Significance: 
  • Iran recognises India’s geo-economic significance and it is this exact recognition that has driven the two sides closer during Raisi’s years in power.
• India’s Support: 
  • India had been Iran’s key supporter for joining the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).
  • Prior to that, in India’s corridors of power, Iran’s support to the India-led Voice of the Global South summits was widely acknowledged. 
  • India secured a waiver from the US in 2018 for investments related to Chabahar Port despite US opposition.

Ebrahim Raisi’s Death & Impact on World

• More Immediate Ramifications:
• • Constitutional Provisions: There are specific constitutional provisions for handling such a situation. Mohammad Mokhber, Iran’s First Vice President under Raisi, has already been appointed as acting President by Khamenei.

• • • An election will be held within 50 days. The establishment will attempt to effect a smooth transition, and avoid any major conflict. 
    • Raisi’s death is not a political crisis for Iran, it is more of a tragedy, which Iran is well placed to overcome. The real crunch in Iran will come when a vacancy arises in the Supreme Leader’s office.
• Global Implications: 
  • Iran’s domestic and foreign orientations, including towards South Asia, are unlikely to change. Thus, Iranian support to India on the Chabahar port is not going to be endangered. 
    • However, Raisi recently visited Pakistan to balance its South Asian policy and a new President will follow that course too. 
  • The traditional unease between Iran and the Arab states will continue despite the seeming rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • Gold prices hit a new high at $2,450 per ounce during the day. The news of Raisi’s death caused gold prices to reach a record high, along with factors of US rate cut expectations, China’s stimulus measures and more. 
  • Iran continues to struggle under Western sanctions. 
    • Notably, since 1995 to present, the US has issued ten executive orders to declare sanctions on various parts of Iran’s economy citing, among other things, Iran’s pursuit to attain nuclear power. 
    • Between August 2021 till April 25, 2024, the US State Department has issued a total of 65 orders to declare sanctions on a number of Iran-linked entities i.e., religious, economic, radical, etc., of several kinds. 
• Impact on India:
• • Chabahar Port: With Raisi’s death, the port development could slow as Iran takes time to focus on its internal matters. 
  • Impact on Economy: There could also be some impact on the global oil markets given Iran is an important producer. Any increase in the price of oil could affect the Indian economy.
    • Brent crude price fluctuations affect India, as the country imports most of its oil requirements. Iran is the third biggest oil producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) grouping. 
      • Brent crude oil has risen 8% in 2024, mainly due to supply cuts by oil-producing countries. But prices have declined by 3% this month.
    • If Iran finds any Israeli hand in the president’s death, then the tensions in West Asia could worsen and would impact India too, but that is not yet established, barring some speculation. 

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The Current Balance of Power in Iran

• Conservatism in Iran: Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran’s politics has developed between conservatives and reformists and this tussle has been the central theme in Iranian politics.
  • Conservatives: On the one side are the conservatives who want to strictly adhere to the tenets of Twelver Shi’ism, Iran’s state religion, and want to implement its religious codes across society. 
    • They frame the Revolution as a radical assertion against Western imperialism, and enjoy massive support, especially among the poorer sections of the population.
  • Reformists: On the other side are the so-called ‘reformists’ who, while remaining loyal to the Revolution, want more flexibility both in domestic and international matters. 
    • They support greater rights for women, strengthening civil society and human rights and also want free elections and more conciliatory relations with the West.
• Currently, and for most of Iran’s post-Revolution history, the conservatives have been dominant. 
  • The conservatives have maintained a firm grip despite Iran’s worsening economic situation due to western sanctions, which triggered a wave of protests last year. 

About India-Iran Relations

• Historical Relation: India and Iran share a millennia-long history of interactions. The contemporary relationship draws upon the strength of these historical and civilisational ties, and continues to grow further marked by high-level exchanges, commercial and connectivity cooperation, cultural and robust people-to-people ties.
  • Relations back to the ancient times of Indus Valley civilization and trade between the coast of southern Iran and India through the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. 
• Political Relations: India and Iran signed a friendship treaty on 15th March 1950. 
  • Both have signed the Tehran Declaration in April 2001 and the New Delhi Declaration in 2003  and the two documents identified areas of cooperation and set the strategic vision for the India-Iran partnership.
  • In May 2016 “Civilizational Connect, Contemporary Context” was issued, and 12 MOUs/Agreements were signed. 
    • The Trilateral Agreement on Trade, Transport and Transit between India, Iran and Afghanistan was also signed. 
  • In February 2018, a joint statement titled “Towards Prosperity Through Greater Connectivity” was issued. The two sides signed 13 MOUs/Agreements.
  • The Indian Prime Minister and Iranian President met for the first time on the sidelines of the SCO Heads of State Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan in September 2022, during which both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to bilateral cooperation, especially in trade and connectivity. 
    • The two leaders also met on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in August 2023.
  • The two countries have in place several Bilateral Consultative Mechanisms at various levels including the Joint Committee Meeting (JCM), Foreign Office Consultations (FOC), Security Consultations at the level of National Security Advisers and Deputy National Security Advisers, and the Joint Consular Committee Meeting (JCCM). 
  • Both also have Joint Working Groups to facilitate cooperation in various sectors of mutual interest.
• Connectivity: India and Iran signed a MoU in 2015 to jointly cooperate on the development of the Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar, Iran. 
  • Geo-Strategic Location: India continues to cooperate closely with Iran in realizing the vision of Chabahar Port as a major regional and international hub in the movement of humanitarian and commercial goods.
    • Iran’s unique geographical position provides India access to Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Eurasia markets.
• Trade Relations: India and Iran are important trade partners. India has been among Iran’s five largest trade partners in recent years. 
  • Major Indian exports to Iran: It includes rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, man-made staple fibres, electrical machinery, artificial jewellery etc. 
  • Major Indian imports from Iran: It consists of dry fruits, inorganic/organic chemicals, glassware, etc.
• Cultural Cooperation and People to People Relations: Civilizational links between India and Iran continue to be the source of robust people to people and cultural ties. 
  • The Indian Cultural Centre established in 2013 and renamed the Swami Vivekananda Cultural Centre (SVCC) in 2018 is helping further these cultural ties. 
  • India recently decided to include Farsi as one of the nine classical languages under the New Education Policy.
  • The major tourist destinations in India and Iran continue to attract tourists of all ages from both countries.
• Energy Security: Iran ranks 2nd globally in terms of gas reserves, presenting an opportunity for fuel diversification, decarbonization and share of gas in India’s energy mix until 2030. 
• Economic Ties: Bilateral trade was US$2.5 bn in 2022, reflecting an increase of 48% from 2021.
  • Indian Exports: Sugar, man-made staple fibers, electrical machinery and artificial jewelry. 
  • Indian Imports: Dry fruits, chemicals and glassware.
  • Iran included India in the list of countries whose citizens will not require a visa to travel.

Significance of Iran for India

• A Traditional Partner: Being a traditional partner, Iran has assumed increased importance in recent times, which will continue to remain valid even in the future. 
  • This relationship therefore needs to be nurtured and sustained. 
• Oil Supplier: Iran has been one of the major suppliers of crude — which has suffered setbacks due to US sanctions. 
• Shared Common Concern of Terrorism: Besides, both countries have shared concerns on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Chabahar Port: Iran has gained strategic importance for India wherein India is operationalising Iran’s Chabahar Port as part of a Tripartite agreement between Iran, Afghanistan, and India. 
  • It acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia — since Pakistan denies land transit to Indian goods. 

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Conclusion

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a tragic helicopter crash is not seen as having a big impact on the domestic markets unless it leads to any escalation in geopolitical tensions.

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