India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has implemented a 5-point action plan in response to the Pakistan-linked terror attack in Pahalgam, J & K.

• The 5-point action plan has been implemented to target Pakistan’s infrastructure, diplomatic presence, and movement across borders.
• Pakistan has suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement and warned that any diversion of its Indus water share by India would be considered an “act of war.”

India’s 5-Point Action Plan Against Pakistan

• Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty
• Closure of Attari-Wagah Border Check Post
• Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistanis
• Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors
• Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel

Key decisions announced by Pakistan after India’s 5-Point Action Plan

• Suspension of Simla Agreement
• Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel
• Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Indian
• India’s military attachés have been declared persona non grata.
• Closure of Attari-Wagah Border for trade

About the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)

• Origin: Signed in 1960, mediated by the World Bank.
• Rivers: Divides six Himalayan rivers:
  • India’s unrestricted use: Eastern tributaries (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi).
  • Pakistan’s use: Western tributaries (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
• Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Resolution via Permanent Indus Commission (PIC). If unresolved, escalation to Neutral Expert. The final step is the Court of Arbitration (CoA) if both prior steps fail.

Key Disputed Projects on Indus

• Kishenganga Hydroelectric Project (330 MW):Located on the Jhelum River, Pakistan raised objections in 2006.
• Ratle Hydroelectric Project (850 MW): Located on the Chenab River, Pakistan questioned its design compliance with the treaty.

Impact of Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Suspension on Pakistan

• Water Scarcity & Agricultural Crisis: 80% of Pakistan’s water comes from the Indus system (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
  • Agriculture contributes 23% to GDP and employs 68% of rural Pakistanis.
  • 154.3 million acre-feet (MAF) of water/year supports irrigation for 90% of Pakistan’s food production.
  • Suspension risk: Reduced water flow → crop failures, food shortages, rural unemployment.
• Economic & Food Security Fallout: Major crops (wheat, rice, cotton) depend on Indus waters.
  • Punjab & Sindh (Pakistan’s breadbaskets) will be worst hit.
  • Food inflation & trade deficit likely to worsen.
• Weak Water Storage Capacity: Pakistan stores only 10% of its annual water share (Mangla & Tarbela dams hold 14.4 MAF).
  • No alternative sources—groundwater already overexploited.
• Political & Social Instability: Water shortages could trigger protests, inter-provincial conflicts (Sindh vs. Punjab).
  • Economic slowdown may deepen Pakistan’s debt crisis.
• Long-Term Consequences: Diplomatic isolation if Pakistan fails to curb cross-border terrorism.
  • Climate change exacerbates water stress—Pakistan is among the most water-stressed nations.

Impact of Indus Treaty Suspension on India

• Diplomatic Costs and Regional Backlash: India risks criticism for undermining a globally respected water-sharing treaty, affecting its image as a responsible regional power.
• Internationalization of Kashmir and Water Disputes: The move may invite renewed international focus on Kashmir and water issues, challenging India’s stand on bilateralism.
• Technological and Logistical Readiness Needed: India must quickly scale up dam and irrigation infrastructure to effectively utilize its share of western river waters.
  • Projects like Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle have been contested; more such storage structures are needed.
• Security and Border Tensions May Rise: Suspension could provoke military escalation or militant activity, especially in sensitive border regions like Kashmir.

Background of India- Pakistan Relation

• Phase of Hostility (1947 – 2001):
  • Partition Fallout and Kashmir Conflict: The partition led to massive migrations and violence. 
    • The first India-Pakistan war occurred over Kashmir in 1947, resulting in Pakistan gaining control over a portion, leading to ongoing tensions. 
    • In 1949, the Karachi Agreement established a cease-fire line overseen by UN military observers and recommended a referendum in the territory, though one never materialized. 
  • Wars and Agreements: Subsequent conflicts in 1965 and 1971 led to UN interventions and agreements like the Tashkent Agreement and the Shimla Agreement. 
    • India secured the Siachen glacier area in 1984 (Operation Meghdoot).
  • Terrorism and Nuclear Tests: Pakistan’s support for insurgency in Kashmir, successful nuclear tests in 1998, and the Kargil War in 1999 marked this period. 
    • The attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 intensified hostilities.
• Pacification Phase (2001-2008):
  • Peace Efforts: Despite setbacks, initiatives like the Lahore Declaration and Vajpayee’s principles aimed at improving relations.
  • Composite Dialogue Process: Started in 2004, including agreements on trade and gas pipelines, showed signs of progress.
  • Mumbai Attacks: However, the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 strained relations.
• Phase of Passive Relations (2008 – 2015):
  • Low-Key Interactions: This phase saw minimal dialogue and efforts to establish trust, with discussions often stalling.
  • Neighborhood First Policy: India prioritized regional cooperation, leading to some positive gestures and visits.
  • Indian Prime Minister’s (PM) Visit to Pakistan: In 2015, Indian PM visit signaled a significant shift.
• Phase of Renewed Hostility (2015 – Present):
  • Escalating Hostilities: Marked by attacks and tensions, aggravated by projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
  • Series of Attacks: Terror attacks, including the Pulwama attack in 2019, triggered Indian Air Force’s Balakot airstrikes and diplomatic tensions.
  • April 2025: Pahalgam terror attack kills 26.
    • India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty, expels diplomats, closes Attari border.

Core Issues of Conflict in India-Pakistan Relations

• The Jammu & Kashmir Dispute
  • Origin: Stems from the accession of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir to India in 1947 after Pakistani-backed tribal invasions.
  • India’s Stand: Legally acceded territory; Kashmir is an integral part of India.
  • Pakistan’s Stand: Accession was conditional and requires a UN-mandated plebiscite for final status determination.
  • Line of Control (LoC): Established post-1949 ceasefire and reaffirmed by the Shimla Agreement (1972). Continues to be a flashpoint for skirmishes​​.
• Cross-Border Terrorism
  • Nature of Conflict: Pakistan is accused of using terrorism as state policy to wage a proxy war in Kashmir and destabilize India.
  • Major Incidents:
    • 2001 Parliament attack
    • 2008 Mumbai attacks
    • 2016 Pathankot & Uri attacks
    • 2019 Pulwama attack
  • India’s Position: Terror and talks cannot go together; calls for dismantling of terror infrastructure.
  • Pakistan’s Response: Denial of involvement or state complicity; projects itself as a victim of terrorism too​.
• Sir Creek Dispute
  • Location: A 96-km tidal estuary on the India-Pakistan border between Gujarat (India) and Sindh (Pakistan).
  • Core Issue: Dispute over the boundary demarcation; India invokes the Thalweg Principle (mid-channel line), while Pakistan claims the entire creek based on old maps.
  • Significance: Strategic for maritime boundary and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).
  • Status: Six rounds of talks have occurred; remains unresolved​.
• Siachen Glacier Conflict
  • Origin: Operation Meghdoot (1984) by India preemptively occupied strategic ridges in Siachen.
  • India’s Claim: Based on military control and strategic necessity.
  • Pakistan’s View: Sees India’s occupation as illegal; demands withdrawal.
  • Issue: Heavy casualties due to altitude and weather rather than combat. Despite dialogue attempts, it remains a militarized zone​.
• Water Disputes under Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)
  • Post-Pulwama and Pahalgam attacks, India considered suspending treaty obligations​​.
• Trade and Transit Restrictions
  • Trade Ties: Heavily restricted and frequently suspended due to political tensions.
  • MFN Status Revoked: After Pulwama, India revoked Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan.
  • LoC Trade: Limited and symbolic; marred by allegations of misuse and smuggling.
• The China Factor (CPEC and Strategic Alliance)
• • China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
  • India’s Stand: Violation of territorial sovereignty; raises strategic concerns.
  • Pakistan’s Strategy: Uses China as a counterweight to Indian influence regionally.

India–Pakistan Border

• Total Border Length: 3,323 km long international border shared by 4 Indian states: Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat
• Border Segments
  • International Border (IB): The official boundary recognized internationally.
    • Stretches from Gujarat to Jammu.
  • Line of Control (LoC): Ceasefire line agreed in 1949, renamed as LoC in Simla Agreement (1972).
    • Divides Jammu & Kashmir into Indian-administered and Pakistan-administered parts.
  • Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL): Extends from NJ9842 to Siachen Glacier.
    • It was marked by India’s control post Operation Meghdoot (1984).
• Border Security
  • BSF (Border Security Force) along the IB.
  • Indian Army along LoC and AGPL.
• Important Checkpoints
  • Wagah-Attari: Main official crossing point; symbolic for diplomacy.
  • Munabao–Khokhrapar: Rail link in Rajasthan–Sindh sector (Thar Express).
  • Uri–Muzaffarabad and Poonch–Rawalakot: Cross-LoC bus/trade points.
• Border Fencing and Monitoring Systems
  • Barbed Wire Fencing has been installed along the International Border (IB) and major parts of the Line of Control (LoC) to prevent infiltration, smuggling, and illegal crossings.
  • Floodlights are used across long stretches to improve visibility at night and reduce the risk of movement under cover of darkness.
  • Laser Walls along riverine stretches of India-Pakistan Border
  • Ground-based sensors, CCTVs, and thermal imaging devices are deployed to enhance night surveillance and detect movement in low-visibility conditions.
  • In fog-prone and mountainous areas, drones and UAVs help monitor real-time activity.

People-to-People Relations between India and Pakistan

• Shared Cultural and Historical Ties
  • Common Heritage: India and Pakistan were one cultural and political entity for centuries under various empires (Mughals, British Raj).
    • They share language roots, especially Punjabi, Urdu, Hindi, and a common Indo-Islamic culture.
  • Religious and Spiritual Legacy: Both countries revere Sufi saints, spiritual poets, and musicians like Bulleh Shah, Waris Shah, and Amir Khusro.
    • Pilgrimage exchanges take place for:
      • Nankana Sahib (Pakistan) – Birthplace of Guru Nanak.
      • Ajmer Sharif (India) – Dargah of Moinuddin Chishti.
• Cultural Affinities and Popular Exchanges
  • Cinema and Music: Bollywood films, actors, and music enjoy massive popularity in Pakistan.
    • Pakistani TV serials, Coke Studio music, and artists are followed widely in India.
    • Shared appreciation has often continued despite bans or restrictions.
  • Literature and Art: Writers and poets from both countries – e.g., Faiz Ahmed Faiz, Saadat Hasan Manto, Gulzar, Amrita Pritam – are loved across borders.
    • Art festivals, book fairs, and mushairas have attempted to build cultural bridges.
• Personal and Humanitarian Bonds
  • Cross-Border Families: Many families remain divided by the partition, yet continue to maintain emotional ties.
    • Marriages, visits, and letters between these families continue, albeit often with bureaucratic hurdles.
  • Public Sentiment: On the ground, citizens often display warmth to visitors from the other side:
    • Restaurant owners in Lahore and taxi drivers in Delhi have waived bills for each other’s countrymen as a sign of affection​.
    • Cricket fans often express mutual admiration during tournaments.
• Formal People-to-People Initiatives
  • Cross-LoC Bus Services: Srinagar–Muzaffarabad and Poonch–Rawalakot bus routes were opened in the 2000s for families split across the LoC.
  • Cross-LoC Trade: Launched in 2008 on a barter system, limited to a few days a week and specific items.
    • Trade faced disruptions due to security and smuggling concerns.
  • Track-II Diplomacy: Conducted by intellectuals, retired officials, journalists, and activists to promote mutual understanding.
    • Initiatives such as the Aman ki Asha campaign attempted to nurture friendship via media and public engagement.

Challenges in India–Pakistan Relations

• Kashmir Dispute and Territorial Claims: Core unresolved issue since 1947–48 war, where Pakistan-backed tribal militias invaded Jammu & Kashmir.
  • Although Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession with India (26 October 1947), Pakistan continues to demand a UN-mandated plebiscite.
• Cross-Border Terrorism and Use of Non-State Actors: Pakistan has repeatedly been accused of supporting terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.
  • These attacks have repeatedly disrupted peace talks, including the Composite Dialogue and Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue​​.
• Breakdown of Dialogue Mechanisms: While frameworks like the Composite Dialogue Process (1997), Agra Summit (2001), and Lahore Declaration (1999) showed hope, each was derailed by terror incidents.
  • After Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019), all high-level engagement froze.
• Indus Water Treaty Friction: Originally seen as a symbol of cooperation, the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) is now under pressure.
  • India accuses Pakistan of obstructing dam projects (e.g., Kishanganga, Ratle) and misusing arbitration mechanisms.
• Militarization and Border Tensions: The Line of Control (LoC) and Siachen Glacier remain heavily militarized.
  • Despite the Lahore visit in Feb 1999, the Kargil intrusion occurred just months later, seen as a “betrayal” of trust by India​​.
• Ideological and Political Hostility: Pakistan’s identity was framed in opposition to India, often viewing itself as a counterweight.
  • Civil-military imbalance in Pakistan causes policy inconsistency, especially due to the military’s dominance in foreign affairs.
• China–Pakistan Axis and Geostrategic Concerns: China’s backing of Pakistan (e.g., CPEC through PoK) creates additional strategic pressure on India.
  • India opposes the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, viewing it as a violation of sovereignty.

Way Forward in India–Pakistan Relations

• Strict Delineation: Terror and Talks Cannot Go Together: India’s official stance affirms that meaningful dialogue is only possible in an environment free of terror and violence.
  • Any engagement must be contingent upon verifiable action by Pakistan against terror groups operating from its soil.
• Revival of Structured Dialogue Mechanism: If conditions permit, both countries may re-engage through a formal and phased process like Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue (CBD), Track-II diplomacy and technical-level talks (e.g., water-sharing, trade).
  • The CBD was initiated during Sushma Swaraj’s visit in 2015; earlier frameworks like Composite Dialogue also addressed a range of bilateral issues​.
• Strengthening People-to-People Engagement: Despite diplomatic freeze, fostering cultural exchanges, visa liberalization for students/senior citizens, religious pilgrimages, etc., can rebuild trust from below.
  • Encouraging sports, arts, and media collaborations where possible.
• Reassessing the Indus Waters Treaty with Transparency: While India has expressed dissatisfaction, modification under Article XII is possible through bilateral consultation.
  • Both sides could explore joint mechanisms for dispute resolution, hydroelectric coordination, and climate-linked water governance.
• Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) on the Border: Initiatives such as Military hotline communication, Advance notice for exercises, Observer-level coordination could reduce tactical misunderstandings, especially along LoC and Siachen.
  • 1991 and 2003 ceasefire understanding and military CBMs helped reduce tensions temporarily​.
• Engage Through Multilateral Platforms: SAARC, SCO, and UN can serve as neutral venues to initiate low-risk interactions.
  • Example: Heart of Asia Process and SAARC summit sidelines have been used before.
• Promote Internal Stability and Civilian Control in Pakistan: Long-term stability in bilateral ties may depend on reducing military dominance in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
  • India can encourage and respond to civilian-led initiatives when there is genuine intent for peace.

Conclusion

In light of the recent Pahalgam attack, India’s decisive measures—suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, closing the border, and downgrading diplomatic ties—signal a firm shift toward a zero-tolerance approach to cross-border terrorism. While peace remains desirable, security and accountability now form the non-negotiable baseline for any future engagement.

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