A new report by the World Bank states that India needs to significantly speed up its reforms to achieve high-income status by 2047.

What is High-Income Status?

• High-income status is a classification used by the World Bank to categorize countries based on their Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. 
• It is a key indicator of a country’s economic development and standard of living.

World Bank Income Classifications

• For the 2025 fiscal year, the World Bank classifies economies based on their Gross National Income (GNI) per capita using the Atlas method. 
  • Low-income economies: GNI per capita of $1,145 or less.
  • Lower middle-income economies: GNI per capita between $1,146 and $4,515.
  • Upper middle-income economies: GNI per capita between $4,516 and $14,005.
  • High-income economies: GNI per capita of $14,005 or more.

India’s Current Economic Status

• In 2007-08, India was classified as a lower middle-income country, with a per capita income of $1,022 (IMF).
  • By 2024, this figure has increased to $2,697.
• As per IMF projections, India’s per capita income may reach $4,195 by 2029, meaning it is likely to become an upper middle-income country by 2032.
• However, achieving high-income status by 2047 will require sustained high growth.

The Middle-Income Trap Challenge

• Only a handful of countries, such as South Korea, Czech Republic, and Romania, have successfully transitioned from middle to high-income status.
• Countries Stuck in the Trap: Nations like Brazil, South Africa, and Malaysia have been unable to make this transition, remaining in the middle-income trap.
• India’s Challenge: To avoid this fate, India must sustain a 7.8% annual growth rate over the coming decades.
  • It is significantly higher than the 6.7% growth rate achieved in the two decades before the Covid pandemic.

Challenges Before India to Achieve High-Income Status

• Sustaining High Growth: India needs to maintain an average annual growth rate of 7.8%, but global headwinds like geopolitical tensions and slowing global growth could hinder progress.
  • The Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains, impacting India’s growth trajectory.
• Dominance of agriculture in the economy: A large workforce remains in low-productivity agriculture, while the shift to high-productivity sectors like manufacturing and services is slow.
  • Over 46% of India’s workforce is employed in agriculture, which contributes only 18% to national GDP. 
• Investment and Productivity: The current investment-to-GDP ratio of 33% is below the 40% target. Subdued private investment and low productivity growth further constrain economic expansion.
  • Delayed infrastructure projects and regulatory hurdles have discouraged private investment.
• Job Creation and Labor Market: India struggles to create quality jobs, with low female labor participation (41.7%) and a mismatch between workforce skills and industry needs.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Inefficient credit allocation, an underdeveloped corporate bond market, and high levels of non-performing assets (NPAs) in public banks limit growth.
  • The corporate bond market in India is underdeveloped, accounting for only 16% of GDP, compared to 50% in the US.
• Trade and FDI: High tariffs, barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and low export competitiveness restrict India’s integration into global value chains (GVCs).
  • India’s share in global exports (merchandise and services) was 2.1% is only 2.1%, far below China’s 14.7%. 
• Infrastructure and Logistics: Poor infrastructure, inefficient logistics, and inadequate urban development increase costs and reduce competitiveness.
  • India ranks 38th in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (2023), behind countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
• Regional Disparities: Income inequality across states persists, with low-income states lagging in growth fundamentals. State-specific reforms are needed to ensure inclusive growth.
  • States like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka have significantly higher per capita income compared to low-income states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand.
• Environmental Sustainability: India faces challenges like climate change, transitioning to renewable energy, and managing pollution and waste for sustainable growth.

Recommendations from the World Bank Report

• Structural Transformation: India needs to shift its workforce from agriculture to higher-productivity sectors like manufacturing and services. 
  • Currently, 46.1% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, which limits economic growth due to lower productivity.
• Higher Investments: India’s investment-to-GDP ratio must rise from 33% to 40% by 2035 to support infrastructure, industry, and innovation. 
  • Encouraging private sector participation through policy stability, ease of doing business, and financial reforms will be essential to mobilize capital and sustain long-term growth.
• Enhance Trade and FDI: Lower tariffs and address barriers to trade and FDI to integrate into global value chains.
  • Opening up to imports can lead to productivity gains and increased exports.
• Job Creation & Labour Force Participation: India must focus on generating more productive jobs, particularly in manufacturing and modern services, to absorb its growing workforce. 
  • Female labour force participation, which currently stands at 41.7%, must rise to 55% by 2050 to unlock the full potential of the economy and drive inclusive growth.
• Technology Adoption & Innovation: India needs to invest in digital infrastructure, AI, automation, and R&D to improve efficiency and global competitiveness.
  • Supporting startups and innovation-driven enterprises will help the country transition to a knowledge-based economy and sustain high growth rates.
• State-Specific Policies: Tailored policies are needed to address income disparities and promote inclusive growth.
  • Less developed states should focus on strengthening growth fundamentals, while more developed states should prioritize advanced reforms.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s report highlights the need for India to intensify its reforms to achieve high-income status by 2047. This will require not only maintaining current initiatives but also expanding and accelerating reforms across various sectors. With the right policies and implementation, India could join the ranks of high-income economies within the next two decades.

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