The geopolitical environment surrounding India is unstable or uncertain. Understanding the current dynamics, challenges and future prospects for regional stability and cooperation is crucial.
- Bangladesh’s Shift to Democracy : India played a quiet “catalytic” role in the holding of elections in Bangladesh, free of army interference.
India’s Development Assistance To Its Neighbours
The years 2008-10 witnessed an exponential increase in India’s development assistance
- In the rebuilding of northern Sri Lanka
- Extending the biggest ever line of credit to Bangladesh, of $1 billion
- In connectivity projects in Myanmar
- Budgetary support to stabilise the fledgling democracy in the Maldives.
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- Maldives Multi-Party Backing: The first multi-party democratic elections were held where Mohamed Nasheed took over as President.
- India backed the first multi-party elections in 2008 and did its bit to stabilise this nascent democracy.
- India’s Support in the Defeat of LTTE: In May 2009, the Sri Lankan government ended a 33-year civil conflict with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) , aided by India’s crucial diplomatic, military, and economic support.
- Nepal Peace Process and Democratic Transition: India was instrumental in Nepal’s transition from monarchy to a federal democratic republic, facilitating dialogue and supporting the drafting of the new constitution.
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Myanmar and Pakistan Democratic Transition
- Myanmar: In 2010 in Myanmar, after 20 years of military rule, elections were held in which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) came to power.
- Pakistan: Pakistan elected a civilian government in 2008, sending President Pervez Musharraf into exile.
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Emergence of Challenges in Recent Times
India’s neighborhood seems to be in disarray in the recent times:
- Bangladesh: Ms. Sheikh Hasina’s elected government collapsed recently under the weight of its own democracy deficit, an economic downturn and a violent student protest.
- This ended a 15-year partnership with India.
Aragalaya
- The term “Aragalaya” translates to “struggle” or “battle” in Sinhala, reflecting the public’s intense demand for political and economic reforms.
- Series of demonstrations in Sri Lanka began in 2022, driven by widespread frustration over economic mismanagement, shortages of essential goods, and political corruption.
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- Sri Lanka: In 2022, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka, unable to control a series of mass anti-government “Aragalaya” protests led mostly by apolitical irate public and youth.
- Its democracy and the economy took a severe beating, the after-effects of which are still being felt in Sri Lanka.
- India’s timely and generous bailout package of about $4 billion saved the economy.
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India Out campaign
- It refers to a political movement in the Maldives advocating for the removal of Indian military and security presence from the country.
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- Maldives: In 2024, President Mohamed Muizzu won unexpectedly, highlighting India’s lack of engagement with him earlier.
- President Mohamed Muizzu was also actively associated with the “India Out” campaign
- Myanmar: The military took over again after three consecutive elections, despite the 2020 elections giving the National League for Democracy a huge mandate.
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- The conflict is spreading into India’s north-east.
- Afghanistan: In 2021, the Taliban captured power after two decades, turning the clock back in Afghanistan.
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- It raised several concerns for India like increased cross-border terrorism and security threats in India, Regional Stability and India’s engagement with Afghanistan
- Pakistan: Pakistan saw its civilian government toppled in 2022 under the army’s influence, as seen in the past.
Way Forward for India
Given the recent challenges in India’s neighborhood, here’s a strategic approach for India:
- Strengthen Diplomatic Engagement: Strong diplomatic ties build mutual trust and understanding, which is essential for long-term partnerships.
- In Bangladesh, India should Rebuild diplomatic ties by engaging with both the ruling party and opposition to ensure balanced relations and promote stability.
- For Example, In Sri Lanka: Since India has built bridges across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka, it is in a much better position, irrespective of who comes to power in the forthcoming elections.
- Promote Economic Diplomacy: Leverage economic cooperation and trade agreements to build stronger economic ties with neighboring countries, contributing to regional stability and prosperity.
- For example: Even the Taliban hesitated to attack Indian projects over the last two decades since it benefited the people.
- Sri Lanka: Continue supporting Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and political stability through bilateral cooperation and humanitarian aid.
- Adapt to Changing Dynamics: Be prepared to adjust strategies based on evolving circumstances and emerging challenges in the neighborhood.
- For Example, India already:
- Extended friendship and patience with the new Maldivian government to find its feet
- Expressed willingness to do business with Taliban in Afghanistan to protect India’s geopolitical interests
- Re-extended the hand of friendship to an unstable but democratic Nepal
- Monitor Trends and Strategic Patience : Keep a watch on a shifting political and economic dynamics in the region and carefully balance support for democratic forces with safeguarding India’s security interests.
- For Example: Myanmar might be heading towards a civil war, and Bangladesh is having a hard time recovering its democracy
- Enhance Regional Cooperation: Foster regional cooperation through platforms like SAARC or BIMSTEC to address common challenges and enhance regional integration.
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Various Indian Initiatives To Harmonize The Relations In The Neighbourhood
India has launched several initiatives to harmonize relations with its neighbors, aiming to foster stability, cooperation, and mutual benefit in the region:
- Look East Policy (1991) and Act East Policy (2014):
- Objective: To enhance economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asian countries.
- Focus: Strengthening trade relations, engaging in regional security dialogues, and participating in ASEAN-led initiatives.
- Neighborhood First Policy (2014):
- Objective: To prioritize and strengthen relations with South Asian neighbors and countries in the Indian Ocean region.
- Principles of ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy
- Sovereignty and territorial integrity
- Mutual respect and sensitivity
- Non-interference in internal affairs.
- Shared prosperity
- Connectivity for regional integration
- People-to-people exchanges
- Gujral Doctrine (1996):
- Objective: To guide India’s foreign relations with its immediate neighbors through non-reciprocity and mutual respect.
- Principles:
- Non-reciprocity: India would provide assistance to its neighbors without expecting immediate reciprocation.
- No Use of Territory Against Neighbors: Neighbors’ territories should not be used to harm or undermine India’s interests.
- Non-interference: Respect for the internal affairs of neighboring countries without meddling.
- Respect for Territorial Integrity: Uphold each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- Peaceful Resolution of Disputes: All disputes should be settled through peaceful, bilateral negotiations.
- Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) (1997):
- Objective: To promote regional integration and cooperation among countries bordering the Bay of Bengal.
- Member States: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand.
- Focus: Collaboration in sectors such as trade, technology, and environment to boost economic and technical cooperation.
- Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) (1997):
- Objective: To foster regional cooperation and economic integration among Indian Ocean rim countries.
- Actions: Promoting trade, security cooperation, and sustainable development initiatives.
- South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC):
- It is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia.
- Member States: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan
- Objective: To enhance regional cooperation and development in South Asia.
- Regional Connectivity Projects: To improve physical and economic connectivity in the region.
- Initiatives such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Bangladesh Connectivity Initiative.
- Vaccine Diplomacy during COVID: India has played a significant role in the region’s fight against COVID-19 by providing vaccines to its neighbours under its vaccine diplomacy initiative.
- For Example, Vaccine Maitri: India, through its vaccine diplomacy, extended help on priority to its neighbours during the Covid-19 pandemic
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September 4, 2024
