Astronomers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have found a new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle.
- Their research also aids in space weather forecasting.
Solar Cycle
- About: The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year period marked by variations in the Sun’s activity, including changes in sunspot numbers, solar radiation, and ejections of solar material.
- This cycle alternates between phases of minimum and maximum activity, with synchronised fluctuations in sunspots, solar flares, and coronal loops.
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Understanding Space Weather
- About: Space weather is a branch of space physics that is concerned with the varying conditions within the Solar System and its heliosphere.
- Space weather has a significant effect on modern civilization, influencing technology and infrastructure on Earth and in space.
- Key Components of Space Weather:
- Solar Wind: Streams of charged particles emitted by the Sun.
- Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs): Large bursts of solar wind and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona or being released into space.
- Solar Flares: Solar flares are a sudden explosion of energy caused by tangling, crossing or reorganising of magnetic field lines near sunspots.
- Impact on Earth:
- Magnetosphere Compression: Space weather events can compress Earth’s magnetosphere.
- Geomagnetic Storms: These storms can disrupt communication and power systems.
- Damage to Spacecraft: Spacecraft electronics can be harmed by intense solar activity.
- Astronaut Safety: Space weather poses risks to astronauts’ health and safety.
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- Magnetic Field Reversal: Approximately every 11 years, the Sun’s magnetic field undergoes a complete flip, with the north and south poles switching places.
- Impact on Solar Activity: The solar cycle influences surface activity on the Sun, including the formation of sunspots, which are driven by the Sun’s magnetic fields.
- Tracking the Cycle:
- The solar cycle is monitored by counting sunspots.
- Sunspots are dark regions on the Sun’s photosphere. (The photosphere is the visible surface layer of the Sun from which light and heat are emitted).
- They appear darker because they are cooler than the surrounding areas of the Sun’s surface.
- It begins with a solar minimum, characterised by few sunspots, and progresses to a solar maximum, when sunspot numbers reach their peak.
Key Findings
- Data and Research: The method is based on 100 years of solar data from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.
- It involves studying solar chromospheric images at 393.3 nm wavelength of Ca-K ion.
- Present Methods to predict the next Solar Cycle:
- Traditional methods include theoretical calculations, dynamo models, extrapolations, and precursor methods.
- The precursor method uses current solar activity measures to predict the next solar cycle’s strength.
- New Correlation Found:
- Correlation Discovery: IIA researchers discovered a correlation between the width of super granular cells on the solar surface during solar minima and the number of sunspots in the subsequent solar maximum.
- In other words, measuring the width of supergranular cells can help predict how many sunspots will be present in the upcoming solar maximum.
- Forecasting Simplified: This method simplifies space weather forecasting by linking supragranular lane widths to sunspot cycle amplitudes.
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Solar Cycle 25
- About: Solar Cycle 25 is the current solar cycle.
- It is the 25th solar cycle since sunspot observations began in 1755.
- The new Solar Cycle started in December 2019 with a minimum sunspot number of 1.8.
- This cycle is expected to continue until around 2030.
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August 16, 2024
