Iran’s Parliament is drafting a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to escalating tensions with Israel and IAEA scrutiny over its nuclear program.

About Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)

• The NPT is an international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting peaceful nuclear energy, and encouraging disarmament.
• It was signed in 1968 and entered into force in 1970. 
• As of 2025, 191 countries are signatories.

• Four states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty.
• The U.N. nuclear watchdog, IAEA, polices the global nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• Objectives of the NPT
  • Non-Proliferation: Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
  • Disarmament: Work toward nuclear disarmament.
  • Peaceful Use: Promote nuclear technology for peaceful purposes under safeguards.
• Structure of the NPT
  • Nuclear Weapon States (NWS): The treaty defines nuclear-weapon states as those that have built and tested a nuclear explosive device before 1 January 1967; 
    • These are the United States (1945), Russia (1949), the United Kingdom (1952), France (1960), and China (1964) but must work toward disarmament.
  • Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS): Countries that agree not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. 
    • They can use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes under IAEA safeguards.
    • NNWS must conclude a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) with the IAEA, which ensures that their nuclear programs are used exclusively for peaceful purposes.
• Key Provisions
  • Article I: NWS will not transfer nuclear weapons to NNWS.
  • Article II: NNWS will not develop nuclear weapons.
  • Article III: NNWS must accept IAEA safeguards to ensure peaceful use of nuclear energy.
  • Article VI: Calls for negotiations on nuclear disarmament.
  • Article X: Allows withdrawal from the treaty with three months’ notice if national interests are threatened.
• Withdrawal Precedents: North Korea (joined in 1985) and withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and later developed nuclear weapons.
  • Iran has threatened to withdraw multiple times, especially following military strikes from Israel and tensions with the U.S.

Significance of the NPT

• Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons: The primary aim of the NPT is to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which could lead to a global arms race and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.
  • Since its inception in 1970, the NPT has successfully limited the number of nuclear-armed states. As of 2025, only nine countries possess nuclear weapons.
• Promoting Nuclear Disarmament: The NPT (Article VI) calls for the nuclear-armed states to work toward disarmament, helping slow the expansion of nuclear arsenals globally.
  • While disarmament has been slow, it set a framework for agreements like the START and New START treaties between the U.S. and Russia.
• Facilitating the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: The NPT allows for the peaceful use of nuclear technology by non-nuclear states under IAEA safeguards.
  • Countries like South Korea, and Brazil have developed nuclear energy programs for civilian purposes under the NPT framework, promoting energy security without the risks of nuclear weaponization.
• Strengthening Global Security: The NPT plays a key role in maintaining global security by preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to more countries and non-state actors.
  • According to the UN, 191 states have joined the NPT, which is seen as a cornerstone of international peace and security.
• Enhancing International Cooperation: The NPT fosters international cooperation in nuclear technology and research, particularly in peaceful nuclear energy.
  • The IAEA plays a central role in verifying that nuclear energy projects are for peaceful purposes, enhancing cooperation among member states.
• Providing a Legal Framework for Non-Proliferation: The NPT creates a legally binding commitment for signatory states to refrain from developing nuclear weapons and to submit to IAEA inspections.
  • Iran’s nuclear program has been under intense scrutiny due to concerns of non-compliance with the NPT. 
• Upholding the Integrity of the Global Non-Proliferation Regime: The NPT is the foundation of global non-proliferation efforts. 
  • If it collapses, the entire structure of non-proliferation treaties and mechanisms could collapse, increasing the risk of nuclear war.

Background: Iran and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• Early Engagement with the NPT: Iran signed the NPT in 1968 and ratified it in 1970, supporting the treaty’s goal of preventing nuclear weapons proliferation and promoting peaceful nuclear energy.
• Post-Revolution Shift: After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was initially ambivalent about nuclear weapons but later reconsidered due to the Iran-Iraq War and the use of chemical weapons by Iraq.
  • Iran’s nuclear program became more secretive, raising suspicions of nuclear weapons development.
• Covert Nuclear Activities: In 2002, Iran’s secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak were exposed, violating NPT safeguards.
  • Despite this, Iran maintained its nuclear ambitions were for peaceful purposes.
• Tensions and IAEA Inspections: In 2005, the IAEA reported Iran’s non-compliance with NPT safeguards, leading to UN sanctions.
  • Iran’s defiance continued under President Ahmadinejad, and only in 2013, with Hassan Rouhani, did Iran agree to negotiate the JCPOA.
• The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): In 2015, the P5+1 countries (U.S., Russia, China, UK, France, Germany) signed the JCPOA, limiting Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
  • U.S. withdrawal in 2018 reignited tensions, and Iran resumed enriching uranium beyond JCPOA limits.
• Recent Tensions and NPT Withdrawal Threat: In 2025, Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities led to calls within Iran’s parliament to withdraw from the NPT, citing Israeli aggression as a threat to national security.
  • Iran argues its nuclear program is peaceful but faces increasing international scrutiny and calls for transparency.

Implications of Withdrawal

• Loss of Oversight: Iran would no longer allow IAEA inspections. The world would lose insight into its nuclear activities, raising concerns of secret weapons development.
  • IAEA inspectors averaged 1.4 nuclear-site visits a day last year in Iran.
• Weakening of the NPT
  • Regional Arms Race: Other countries, like Saudi Arabia or Turkey, may seek nuclear weapons in response, fearing Iran’s potential nuclear program.
    • Iran’s exit could encourage other nations to leave the NPT, weakening global non-proliferation efforts.
• Diplomatic Isolation: Russia and China may not support Iran if it leads to instability. Iran could lose diplomatic leverage without the NPT.
• Increased Tensions: Israel and the U.S. would likely escalate military actions against Iran, increasing regional conflict.
• Nuclear Weapons Development: Without NPT restrictions, Iran could accelerate nuclear weapons development.

India’s Stand on the NPT

• Non-Signatory Status: India never signed the NPT and considers it discriminatory.
  • India objects to the division of the world into nuclear haves and have-nots, where five countries are allowed to keep nuclear weapons while others are prohibited.
• Criticism of Inequality: India argues that the NPT allows five nuclear-armed states to keep nuclear weapons without disarming, creating nuclear inequality.
• Advocacy for Global Disarmament: India calls for complete nuclear disarmament for all states, but believes it should be pursued on an equal footing for everyone.
• Nuclear Doctrine: India follows a credible minimum deterrent policy with a no-first-use stance on nuclear weapons.
  • Nuclear weapons are seen as a deterrent, not for aggression
• Support for Peaceful Nuclear Energy: India supports the right of all nations to use nuclear energy peacefully under IAEA safeguards.
  • It seeks access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes like energy production.
• Nuclear Program Outside the NPT: India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and has developed nuclear weapons outside the NPT framework, maintaining a responsible nuclear posture.
• Push for NSG Membership: India seeks membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to access civilian nuclear technology.
  • It argues that its nuclear program is peaceful and compliant with non-proliferation norms.

Nuclear Frameworks and Export Control Regime

India’s Alternative Approach to Nuclear Non-Proliferation

• Commitment to Global Disarmament: India advocates for universal nuclear disarmament, emphasizing the need for a world free of nuclear weapons.
  • India calls for gradual and equitable disarmament, where all countries, including nuclear powers, take concrete steps toward reducing their arsenals.
• Credible Minimum Deterrence: India follows a credible minimum deterrence policy, maintaining a small but effective nuclear arsenal to deter potential threats.
  • India’s nuclear posture is based on the principle of no-first-use (NFU), ensuring nuclear weapons are only used as a last resort in the face of a nuclear attack.
• Nuclear Energy for Peaceful Purposes: India seeks the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, in line with its energy security goals.
• Regional Leadership on Non-Proliferation: India supports regional non-proliferation efforts and encourages the peaceful resolution of nuclear issues in South Asia.
  • India has taken steps toward nuclear confidence-building measures in the region, particularly with Pakistan, to avoid a potential nuclear arms race.
• Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Membership: India has lobbied for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to access civilian nuclear technology and materials.
  • India argues that as a responsible nuclear power, it should be included in global nuclear trade while adhering to non-proliferation norms.
• Strengthening International Non-Proliferation Framework: While not part of the NPT, India supports global non-proliferation initiatives and works with the IAEA for the safe and secure use of nuclear energy.
  • India has signed various bilateral nuclear agreements with countries like the U.S., France, and Russia, focusing on nuclear energy cooperation under strict safeguards.

Challenges for the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty)

• Discriminatory Nature: The NPT divides states into nuclear-armed and non-nuclear states.
  • India, Pakistan, and Israel argue it’s unequal and discriminatory, undermining the treaty’s legitimacy.
• Slow Disarmament Progress: Nuclear powers are slow to reduce their arsenals.
  • Despite NPT’s call for disarmament, countries like the U.S. and Russia continue to modernize their nuclear forces.
• Non-Signatories: Countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel never signed the NPT.
  • North Korea withdrew and developed nuclear weapons, undermining the treaty’s authority.

• Enforcement Challenges: The NPT lacks strong enforcement mechanisms.
  • Violations by states like Iran and North Korea go largely unpunished, weakening the treaty’s credibility.
• Lack of FMCT Progress: The FMCT (Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty) has stalled in negotiations.
  • This prevents progress in global disarmament and causes distrust among non-nuclear states.
• Regional Security Issues: States like Iran and North Korea argue their nuclear programs are for security reasons.
  • Regional tensions make it hard to prevent nuclear proliferation.
• Political and Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical rivalries affect NPT effectiveness.
  • Political factors often overshadow non-proliferation goals, limiting global compliance.

Way Forward for the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty)

• Promoting Inclusive Security Frameworks: The NPT should evolve to include all nations in nuclear security discussions.
  • Create an equitable system where countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel actively contribute to global security while fostering transparency and trust-building.
• Progress on Nuclear Disarmament: Nuclear-armed states must accelerate disarmament processes and set clear timelines for reducing their nuclear arsenals.
  • Reinforce the commitment of nuclear states to implement disarmament measures, such as cutting warhead numbers and de-alerting systems. 
• Strengthening Enforcement Mechanisms: Strengthen the IAEA’s role and develop more effective enforcement mechanisms for countries that violate the NPT’s provisions.
  • Introduce penalties for countries found violating the treaty and ensure that sanctions are enforced. 
• Addressing Regional Security Concerns: Engage countries like Iran and North Korea in security dialogues to address the root causes of their nuclear programs and find peaceful solutions to regional tensions.
  • Strengthen regional security frameworks and confidence-building measures in areas like the Middle East and North East Asia, focusing on diplomatic solutions over military ones.
• Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT): Prioritize the FMCT as a critical step towards global disarmament.
  • Resume negotiations on the FMCT in the Conference on Disarmament, aiming to achieve a global consensus.
• Enhancing Multilateral Cooperation: Strengthen the role of multilateral nuclear frameworks like the NPT Review Conferences to encourage more collaborative efforts on non-proliferation.
  • Increase global cooperation through platforms like the United Nations and IAEA to create more transparent dialogue and collaborative disarmament measures between nuclear and non-nuclear states.

Conclusion

Iran’s potential withdrawal from the NPT threatens global non-proliferation efforts, risking a regional arms race and heightened geopolitical tensions. India, as a non-signatory advocating universal disarmament, must navigate its strategic interests, particularly energy security and Chabahar Port, while promoting diplomatic solutions to strengthen the global non-proliferation regime.

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