Context
According to a study by the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India must prioritize investment in the nuclear energy sector and expand related infrastructure to become a developed nation by 2047 and achieve net zero by 2070.
Nuclear Power as a Deterrent for a Nation
- Purpose: Strategic use of nuclear capabilities to deter potential adversaries from hostile actions by threatening devastating retaliation in the event of an attack.
- MAD Principle: Nuclear deterrence relies on the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD), wherein the prospect of catastrophic consequences discourages adversaries from initiating conflicts.
- Deterrence: The credible threat of nuclear retaliation can dissuade adversaries from launching military offensives or engaging in provocative behavior, thus promoting stability and preventing escalation of conflicts.
- Increase Global Influence: Nuclear capabilities can also bolster a nation’s diplomatic and geopolitical influence and elevate a country’s status on the global stage and afford it greater leverage in international negotiations and alliances.
- Concerns: Reliance on nuclear deterrence also raises concerns regarding the risks of:
- Nuclear proliferation.
- Accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
- Potential for arms races among nations.
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About the IIM Ahmedabad Study On India’s Nuclear Power Development
- From Coal to Nuclear Power: The study emphasized the importance of India phasing down coal usage in the next three decades.
- It highlighted the significance of flexible grid infrastructure and storage to facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources.
- Methodology: The authors used mathematical models to estimate what proportion of various sources of energy would be required by 2030 and 2050 to arrive at an ideal scenario of net zero emissions by 2070.
- It considered the situation where India’s population attains a human development index comparable to Western European countries, alongside a decrease in the cost of accessing energy.
- Funded by: the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India.
- Scenario Postulated by Report: It postulates four situations:
- There is a “thrust” on nuclear energy
- Thrust on expanding fossil fuel use along with employing carbon capture and storage
- Third with an emphasis on renewable energy (solar, wind)
- One that combines all of these.
Key Findings of IIM Ahmedabad Study
- Vision Document for Nuclear Energy: The Department of Atomic Energy is preparing a vision document for ‘Amrit Kaal‘ which aims to reach a nuclear capacity of about 100 GW by 2047.
- It is an increase from the current production of over 8,000 MW with contributions from various sources.
- Projection for Net Zero Scenario: The best case scenario projected emissions to fall to 0.55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2070 (Net Zero).
- This translated to nuclear power rising fivefold from today’s levels to 30 GW (gigawatt) by 2030 and 265 GW by 2050.
- Share of Nuclear Power in Energy Mix: The contribution of nuclear power would be 4% of India’s total energy by 2030 and sharply rise to 30% by 2050 and the share of solar power falls from 42% in 2030 to 30% in 2050.
- Sources of Nuclear Power: Breeder reactors are expected to contribute 3 GW of nuclear power, while 17.6 GW will come from light water reactors with international cooperation, and an additional 40-45 GW from pressurised heavy water reactors.
Nuclear Energy
- About: Nuclear energy is a form of energy released from the nucleus, the core of atoms, made up of protons and neutrons.
- Production Methods: This energy source can be produced in two ways:
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- Nuclear Fission: when nuclei of atoms split into several parts
- Nuclear Fusion: when nuclei fuse together.
- Current: The nuclear energy harnessed worldwide today to produce electricity is through nuclear fission, while the technology to generate electricity from fusion is in the R&D phase.
Background of India’s Nuclear Energy Programme
- Atomic Energy Commission(AEC): The AEC set up in 1948 under the leadership of Homi J. Bhabha, marked the beginning of India’s nuclear program.
- Atomic Energy Establishment: It was founded in 1954 which later became the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC).
- Nuclear Power: India’s first nuclear power plant was commissioned in 1969 at Tarapur, Maharashtra.
- Pokhran Tests: India demonstrated its nuclear capabilities to the world with the peaceful nuclear explosion at Pokhran in 1974, and later in 1998.
- Indigenous Development: Post the Pokhran tests, India faced international embargos which led to the development of indigenous technology for both power generation and strategic purposes.
India’s Three-Stage Nuclear Power Programme
- Stage One: Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR): In this stage, natural uranium is used as fuel in PHWRs. The uranium-235 isotope undergoes fission to produce energy, while the uranium-238 isotope absorbs neutrons to produce plutonium-239.
- Stage Two: Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR): The second stage utilizes plutonium-239, obtained from the first stage, as fuel in FBRs. These reactors breed more fuel than they consume. The bred material, a mix of plutonium and uranium, is reprocessed to extract plutonium for use in the next batch of fuel.
- Stage Three: Thorium Based Reactors: In the final stage, thorium-232 is converted into uranium-233 in a reactor. The uranium-233 will then serve as fuel.
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Status of Nuclear Power Capacity in India
- Installed nuclear power capacity: The present installed nuclear power capacity in India is 7480 MW comprising 23 nuclear power reactors (July 2023).
- Share in Total Energy Mix: Currently, nuclear energy accounts for 3% of the total power generation share, which results in an annual savings of about 41 MtCO2.
- This is among the lowest in countries that do use nuclear energy.
Advantages of Nuclear Energy
- Clean Energy Source: It is a clean source of energy with a minimal carbon footprint. There is negligible release of emissions during the electricity generation process.
- According to IAEA, even when the entire life cycle is considered, greenhouse gas emissions are only in the range of 5 to 6 grams per kilowatt hour.
- This is more than 100 times lower than coal-fired electricity, and about half the average of solar and wind generation.
- Perennial Availability: Unlike wind or solar which are season or time-dependent, it is available throughout the year.
- It is thus suitable for baseload electricity generation that solar or wind projects are unable to do unless breakthroughs in battery storage technologies come along.
- Ease to Use: Nuclear power plants (NPP) also have low operating costs, smaller land imprint and a longer life cycle compared to all the other renewable energy sources.
- Energy security: Energy security through reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and critical minerals. Nuclear electricity production costs are less sensitive to changes in fuel prices than electricity from oil and gas.
- Uranium is available from a range of diverse producer countries, and is incredibly energy dense, meaning comparatively low volumes are required.
- Enough uranium fuel for several years of electricity production can also be easily stored on the site of nuclear power plants.
- Decarbonisation of Energy-Intensive Industries: Industries such as steel production, which use coal for heating and hydrogen production, could also be decarbonized using nuclear power with advanced reactors to produce high temperature steam.
- Resource Efficiency: Solar power needs more than 17 times as much material and 46 times as much land to produce one unit of energy.
- A single large nuclear power plant can replace multiple coal-fired power plants to meet the same energy demand.
Potential to Help in Achieving Net Zero by 2070
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Reducing Carbon emissions:
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High Energy Potential:
- Nuclear plants, like the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, showcase the ability to generate large amounts of energy from a relatively small infrastructure.
- Currently, KNPP houses two operational units each with a capacity of 1,000 MW, totaling 2,000 MW of electricity generation.
- However, the real potential of this plant lies in its expansion. The construction of units three and four commenced in 2017 with an aim to operationalize them by 2023 and 2024, respectively.
- Additionally, the fifth and sixth units are under construction as of 2021.
- Once all six units are commissioned, estimated by 2027, the power plant will have a combined capacity of 6,000 MW, making it the largest nuclear power station in India.
- Energy Security: Nuclear energy, leveraging India’s domestic thorium reserves, can enhance the nation’s energy security, as manifested in the three-stage nuclear power program.
How will Nuclear Energy Help in Achieving the Aim of Viksit Bharat?
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Growth in Primary Energy Consumption:
- India is expected to surpass Germany and Japan and move up from number five to number three position which will trigger demand for energy.
- Thus, leading to growth in primary energy consumption which is already the third-highest globally. Most of this is based on fossil energy.
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Balancing Energy Use and Development:
- The developmental aspirations of India require a manifold increase in per-capita energy use even if it transitions to net-zero GHG emission.
- The inability to meet this dual challenge would mean either compromising on development or failing to realise the net-zero target timeframe or both.
- The per capita electricity consumption in India has reported consistent growth from 914 kWh in 2012-13 to 1208 kWh in 2020 which is an increase of 32 percent.
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Achieving Human Development Index (HDI):
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- India needs to reach a Human Development Index (HDI) comparable to advanced countries of the world.
- For this, as per prevailing correlations, a minimum of 2,400 kilogram oil equivalent (kgoe) energy consumption per capita per year is needed. The total clean energy requirement to support a developed India would be around 25,000 — 30,000 TWhr/yr.
- This is more than four times our present energy consumption.
Challenges with Nuclear Energy
- Nuclear Disaster: Nuclear fission reactions are highly radioactive and radiation leaks from reactors can prove fatal for human beings.
- Example: Radiation leaks in Chernobyl, 1986 and disaster in Fukushima, 2011.
- Capital Intensive: Nuclear power plants are capital intensive and recent nuclear builds have suffered major cost overruns.
- Example: The V.C. Summer nuclear project in South Carolina (U.S.), costs rose so sharply that the project was abandoned after an expenditure of over US$ 9 billion.
- Availability of Cheap Alternatives: Solar and Wind energy are cheap and effective alternatives as they promise to provide electricity between INR 2-4/unit.
- Waste Generation: Nuclear power plants produce highly radioactive waste that must be carefully managed and stored for many years.
- Its waste is extremely toxic and harmful to the environment.
- Exhaustible: Materials used to generate nuclear energy are exhaustible. Example: Uranium
- Environmental Impacts: Uranium mining, the initial step in nuclear energy production has been linked to habitat destruction, soil and water contamination, and adverse health effects for communities near mining sites.
- The extraction and processing of uranium require vast amounts of energy, often derived from nonrenewable sources, further compromising the environmental credentials of nuclear power.
- Others: Transition to net zero involves massive transformation of energy systems, involving new technologies, restructuring of energy systems at supply-and-demand ends and large costs. For a large and developing country like India, the challenge of reaching net zero is much bigger.
International Policy Hurdles
- Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): As a non-signatory to the NPT, India faces constraints in acquiring nuclear technology and fuel from other countries.
- Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): India’s non-participant status in the NSG, a multinational body that governs international nuclear trade, further restricts its access to global nuclear markets.
- No Significant Contribution by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs): In spite of technical MDBs and private investors have not made any significant contribution to the industry.
- No Funding by the World Bank: The World Bank has not provided financing for a nuclear project since its $40 million loan to Italy in 1959.
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Way Forward
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Strategic Reserve of Nuclear Fuel:
- India needs to develop a strategy to build nuclear capacity with a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against disruption of supply over the lifetime of its reactors.
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Developing Safe Nuclear Technologies:
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- The nuclear technologies belonging to generation III+ and generation IV being developed today are considered safer as they reduce the probability of severe accidents and also limit the offsite consequences of the accidents.
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Policy support:
- The share of nuclear technologies in electricity generation could be improved through adequate policy support.
- This should include in terms of sharing of regulatory costs, R&D costs, incentives for achieving specific technological milestones, and production credits for successful demonstration of new designs.
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Financial Support:
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- to the Central Electricity Authority, solar energy accounts for 16% of India’s installed generation capacity and coal 49%.
Different Generations of Nuclear Reactors:
- Generation I: It includes the prototypes and the first industrial-scale reactors developed in the 1950s and 1960s and which were commissioned in the 1970s.
- Generation II: These reactors were commissioned from the 1970s onwards and were designed to improve competitiveness and energy independence due to the high price of fossil fuels.
- For example, this generation included PWRs.
- Generation III: It emphasized safety and security, strengthening robustness to external risks by integrating operating experience from second-generation reactors. For example, the European pressurized reactor (EPR).
- Generation IV: It incorporated several technological advances, and research on these systems is being conducted.
- Criteria for this generation of reactors include sustainability, nuclear safety, economic competitiveness, and nuclear proliferation resistance.
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- To achieve these figures for nuclear energy would require a doubling of investments and uranium, a critical fuel but restricted by international embargo, is available in necessary quantities.
- Overall, India would need close to ₹150-200 lakh crore between 2020-2070 to finance these transitions.
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Adequate Infrastructure:
- To phase down coal by 2070, India needs to build adequate infrastructure for alternative sources such as nuclear power, in addition to flexible grid infrastructure and storage to support the integration of renewable energy.
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Mobilisation of Private Capital:
- Private capital must also be mobilized, and financial flows need to be augmented through developed countries.
- Article 9 of the Paris Agreement specifies that developed countries should provide developing countries with a finance of USD 100 billion annually up to 2025 and beyond to support Net Zero transition and climate change adaptation actions.
- 15% of the overall green finance flows is sourced overseas, but only 5% of that comes from the private sector.
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Small Modular Nuclear Reactor (SMR):
- They have a maximum capacity of 300 MW which can be installed in decommissioned thermal power plant sites by repurposing existing infrastructure.
- This prevents the need to acquire more land and/or displace people beyond the existing site boundary.
- SMRs are designed with a smaller core damage frequency (the likelihood that an accident will damage the nuclear fuel).
- They have a source term (a measure of radioactive contamination) compared to conventional Nuclear power plants (NPPs).
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Need for Cooperative Model:
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- Successful financial practices that can be followed.
- Examples: In the cooperative funding models of France, South Korea, Russia, and the U.K., a group of investors raise credit from the market and take full responsibility for project delivery.
- In Finland, large power plants have been funded by multiple private companies since the 1970s using a cooperative finance model called ‘Mankala’.
- Under this model, companies jointly own energy producers and share the costs of building and operating plants.
Also Read: World Energy Outlook 2023
April 4, 2024
