Recently, Russia became the first nation to officially recognize the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. 

• Russia had maintained de facto engagement since 2021, keeping its embassy in Kabul functional.
• Other countries like China, UAE, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan have informal ties but no formal recognition.

Why Russia Recognised the Taliban?

• Security Interests: Counterterrorism Priority: ISKP (Islamic State–Khorasan Province) has become the top terrorist threat for Russia.
  • Taliban, despite past hostility, is seen as a lesser evil and an effective bulwark against ISKP, which is ideologically hostile to both Moscow and the Taliban.
• Strategic Influence in Central Asia: Russia aims to maintain dominance in Central Asian republics (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc.).
  • Afghanistan borders Tajikistan and is crucial for regional security architecture.
• Geoeconomic Interests: Afghanistan is viewed as a transit corridor to South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
  • The Trans-Afghan Railway project, supported by Russia and Uzbekistan, connects Central Asia to South Asia.
• Realpolitik and Great Power Competition: Russia seeks to match China’s early diplomatic moves, including:
  • China accepted the Taliban ambassador in Feb 2024.
  • Chinese investment in Afghan oil, copper, and lithium.
  • Recognition allows Russia to compete for strategic and economic influence in Afghanistan and Eurasia.
  • US Withdrawal (February 2021) created a power vacuum in Afghanistan, attracting regional powers (India, Iran, China, Russia) to assert influence.
• Foreign Policy Messaging to the West: Aimed at undermining the Western consensus of isolating the Taliban.
  • Signals Russia’s tilt toward a “post-Western world order”, where interests trump ideological norms.
• Domestic Political and Symbolic Factors: In December 2024, Russia removed the Taliban from its official list of terrorist organisations.
  • Recognition thus appears legally and diplomatically prepared.

India-Afghanistan Relations: Historical Perspective

Ancient Period

• Indus Valley Civilization: Historical ties trace back to the Indus Valley Civilization, where trade and cultural exchanges were prominent.
• Gandhara Region: Gandhara, part of modern-day Afghanistan, was one of the 16 Mahajanapadas in the Vedic Age. It was a hub for Buddhism, introduced by the Mauryan Empire.
  • Bamiyan Buddhas: These majestic sculptures highlighted the influence of Buddhism in the region Period
• Cultural Exchange: Afghanistan served as a gateway for cultural exchanges and the spread of Islam into India.
• Political Integration: Several rulers of the Indian subcontinent, including the Mughals, had Afghan roots, further intertwining the two regions.

Colonial Era

• Anglo-Afghan Relations: Afghanistan’s strategic location led to several conflicts between British India and Afghanistan, including the Anglo-Afghan Wars (1839–1842, 1878–1880).
• Durand Line: Established in 1893 by the British, this boundary caused long-term disputes and instability in the region .

Post-Independance 

• Treaty of Friendship (1950): India and Afghanistan established formal diplomatic relations, emphasizing mutual respect and sovereignty .
• Afghanistan’s Neutrality: Participation in the Asian Relations Conference (1947) emphasized its commitment to neutrality and friendly relations with India .
• Soviet-Afghan Relations (1979-1989): India sup Soviet-backed Afghan government during the Cold War, the only South Asian country to do so.

Modern Era

Pre-2021 Engagement:

• Historically opposed the Taliban due to security concerns, especially regarding the Kashmir insurgency.
• Supported anti-Taliban Northern Alliance (1996-2001) financially and militarily.
• Post-2001, significantly invested ($3 billion) in Afghanistan’s infrastructure: Salma Dam, Afghan Parliament, Zaranj-Delaram Highway.
• Post-Taliban (2001): India played a key role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction after the Taliban’s fall, committing over $3 billion for infrastructure and capacity building projects.
• • Landmarks:
    • Salma Dam (Afghan-India Friendship Dam): Completed in 2016.
    • Zaranj-Delaram Highway: Facilitated trade with Iran via Chabahar Port.

Post-Taliban Takeover (2021 onward):

• Initial cautious engagement through indirect diplomatic channels (Doha talks).
• Reopened Indian Embassy in Kabul (June 2022) for pragmatic, limited engagement.
• The Afghan Embassy in New Delhi closed (October 2023) due to resource constraints.
• High-level meeting in Dubai (January 2025) between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
• Taliban Era (1996–2001): Relations soured during the Taliban regime, marked by incidents like the Kandahar hijacking (1999).

Implications for India

• Diplomatic Isolation: India has not recognized Taliban; risks being left out of evolving Afghan diplomacy.
• Security Threats: Rise of ISKP and Taliban–LeT ties raise fears of terrorism spillover into Kashmir.
• Geoeconomic Challenges: India’s $3 billion investments in Afghan infrastructure (e.g., Salma Dam, Parliament) now insecure.
• Loss of Soft Power: India’s developmental goodwill eroded amid China–Russia–Pakistan engagement.
• Chabahar & INSTC affected: Regional instability could undermine India’s trade access to Central Asia via Iran.
• Strategic Watch on SCO: China likely to push for Taliban’s recognition at the Sept 2025 SCO Summit in Tianjin.
• Diplomatic Dilemma: Balancing ties with Iran, Central Asia, and Taliban-led Afghanistan without compromising principles.

India’s Recent Engagement with the Taliban

• Strategic Backchannel Diplomacy: India has maintained informal contacts with the Taliban through backchannels in Doha since 2021.
  • Safeguard Indian interests post-U.S. withdrawal and ensure safety of Indian assets/projects in Afghanistan.
• Reopening of Indian Embassy in Kabul: In June 2022, India deployed a “technical team” in its Kabul embassy to resume limited operations.
  • Humanitarian aid coordination and intelligence liaison, not formal recognition.
• Humanitarian Assistance: India has delivered over 47,000 metric tonnes of wheat, 500,000 COVID vaccines, and essential medicines under UN auspices.
  • Aid channeled through the UN World Food Programme and WHO to avoid legitimizing the Taliban regime directly.
• Security Coordination after ISKP Threats: Post ISKP threats in the region and attacks on Sikh minorities, India coordinated security sharing via regional mechanisms like SCO and Moscow Format.
• Taliban Condemns Pahalgam Terror Attack: The Afghan foreign minister strongly condemned the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack.
  • Seen as Taliban’s bid to project itself as a responsible actor; interpreted cautiously by India.
• Limited Engagement at Multilateral Platforms: India interacted with Taliban representatives at the Moscow Format and Heart of Asia processes but avoided formal bilateral diplomacy.
  • Focus remained on regional peace, counter-terrorism, and humanitarian priorities.
• No Formal Recognition Policy: MEA clarified that engagement doesn’t equate to recognition.
  • India supports “inclusive Afghan polity” and rights for women and minorities, consistent with UNSC Resolution 2593.

Challenges and Opportunities for India

Challenges

• Terror Risk Escalation: Increased ISKP activity and potential safe havens for anti-India groups.
• Loss of Influence: Russia and China filling vacuum left by US withdrawal and India’s cautious approach.
• Human Rights Concern: India wary of Taliban’s treatment of women, minorities, and democratic norms.
• Connectivity Blockage: India cannot access Afghanistan directly due to lack of land route via Pakistan.

Opportunities

• Leverage in Regional Forums: Can use SCO, BRICS, and bilateral talks with Central Asia for backdoor diplomacy.
• Afghan People’s Goodwill: India’s humanitarian aid and scholarships still valued in Afghan civil society.
• Quiet Engagement: Delhi has reportedly maintained informal contacts with Taliban via Doha.
• Strategic Balancing: Possibility to coordinate with Iran, CARs (Central Asian Republics), and even Russia on selective issues.

Way Forward for India

• Calibrated Engagement: Resume limited diplomatic presence (like humanitarian consulate) without full recognition.
• Backchannel Talks: Continue secret-level interactions to assess Taliban’s ground reality and red lines.
• People-Centric Approach: Expand scholarships, food aid, medical support to retain Afghan goodwill.
• Strengthen Regional Ties: Deepen ties with Iran, Uzbekistan, and Russia to influence Afghan affairs indirectly.
• Watch for SCO Signals: Use Tianjin Summit (Sept 2025) to gauge global mood on Taliban recognition.
• Border Security Tightening: Beef up intelligence coordination, especially in Kashmir and Punjab sectors.
• Narrative Leadership: Champion democratic values, women’s rights, and human security in multilateral platforms.

Conclusion

Russia’s recognition of the Taliban reflects its strategic and economic priorities, but India must adopt a cautious, multifaceted approach to safeguard its security, economic interests, and regional influence. Balancing pragmatic engagement with principled diplomacy will be key to navigating Afghanistan’s evolving geopolitical landscape.

DOWNLOAD PDF