Slower Rise In India’s Carbon Emissions

14 Nov 2025

Slower Rise In India’s Carbon Emissions

The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 assessment shows that India’s carbon emissions rose by only 1.4%, a sharp slowdown compared to 4% in 2024.

About Global Carbon Project (GCP)

  • It is a Global Research Project of Future Earth and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme.
  • Purpose: To provide a science-based knowledge base for policy debates and actions to slow and stop the increase of greenhouse gases.
  • Function: It tracks trends in global carbon emissions and sinks, publishing reports on global budgets for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
  • Established in 2001 

Major Trends Highlighted in the Report

  • Slower Growth in India’s Carbon Emissions in 2025: India’s carbon emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4% rise in 2024.
    • Significance: Indicates a cooling of emission growth compared to recent years.
    • Key Drivers:
      • A favourable monsoon that reduced cooling-related electricity demand.
      • Strong growth in renewable energy, which helped reduce dependency on coal.
    • India remains the third largest global emitter, with 3.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually (2024), led by the U. S. (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes)
    • Per capita emissions: 2.2 tonnes/year, the second lowest among the 20 largest economies.
  • Global Emission Patterns in 2025: Global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions expected to rise to 38 billion tonnes, a 1.1% increase.
    • The rise is driven across all major fuel types:
      • Coal: +0.8%
      • Oil: +1%
      • Natural Gas: +1.3%
    • Land-use emissions:
      • Permanent deforestation continues at ~4 billion tonnes CO₂/year.
      • Reafforestation and forest regrowth offset only half of this.
  • Regional Emission Trends: 
    • China: Emissions expected to increase 0.4%, a slower rise than previous years.
      • Reason: Moderate energy consumption with exceptional renewable energy expansion.
    • United States: Emissions projected to grow by 1.9%.
    • European Union: Emissions to rise by 0.4%.
    • These trends reflect slower but continuing increases in major economies.
  • Slowing Global CO₂ Growth Over the Past Decade: Total CO₂ emissions (fossil + land-use change) grew 0.3% per year over the last decade, compared to 1.9% per year in the decade before.
    • Indicates broader global deceleration in emission growth rates, though not enough to align with climate targets.
  • Near-Exhaustion of the 1.5°C Carbon Budget:The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted”.  
    • The remaining budget for 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to four years at the 2025 emissions levels.
    • Scientific Assessment:
      • Climate change is already reducing land and ocean carbon sink efficiency, signalling worsening planetary feedbacks.

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What is a Carbon Budget?

  • It is the maximum amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that humanity can emit while still having a chance to keep global warming below a specific temperature limit (most commonly 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels)
  • Once this budget is exhausted, crossing the temperature threshold becomes inevitable, regardless of future emission cuts.
  • It provides a scientific, quantifiable limit on global emissions, guiding climate action planning.
  • How It Is Calculated
    • Scientists estimate how much warming is caused by cumulative CO₂ emissions over time.
    • They subtract the warming that has already occurred and the emissions already released to determine how much CO₂ can still be emitted.

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Quick Revise Now !
UDAAN PRELIMS WALLAH
Comprehensive coverage with a concise format
Integration of PYQ within the booklet
Designed as per recent trends of Prelims questions
हिंदी में भी उपलब्ध

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