Slower Rise In India’s Carbon Emissions

The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 assessment shows that India’s carbon emissions rose by only 1.4%, a sharp slowdown compared to 4% in 2024.

Major Trends Highlighted in the Report

• Slower Growth in India’s Carbon Emissions in 2025: India’s carbon emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4% rise in 2024.
  • Significance: Indicates a cooling of emission growth compared to recent years.
  • Key Drivers:
    • A favourable monsoon that reduced cooling-related electricity demand.
    • Strong growth in renewable energy, which helped reduce dependency on coal.
  • India remains the third largest global emitter, with 3.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually (2024), led by the U. S. (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes)
  • Per capita emissions: 2.2 tonnes/year, the second lowest among the 20 largest economies.
• Global Emission Patterns in 2025: Global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions expected to rise to 38 billion tonnes, a 1.1% increase.
  • The rise is driven across all major fuel types:
    • Coal: +0.8%
    • Oil: +1%
    • Natural Gas: +1.3%
  • Land-use emissions:
    • Permanent deforestation continues at ~4 billion tonnes CO₂/year.
    • Reafforestation and forest regrowth offset only half of this.
• Regional Emission Trends: 
  • China: Emissions expected to increase 0.4%, a slower rise than previous years.
    • Reason: Moderate energy consumption with exceptional renewable energy expansion.
  • United States: Emissions projected to grow by 1.9%.
  • European Union: Emissions to rise by 0.4%.
  • These trends reflect slower but continuing increases in major economies.
• Slowing Global CO₂ Growth Over the Past Decade: Total CO₂ emissions (fossil + land-use change) grew 0.3% per year over the last decade, compared to 1.9% per year in the decade before.
  • Indicates broader global deceleration in emission growth rates, though not enough to align with climate targets.
• Near-Exhaustion of the 1.5°C Carbon Budget:The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted”.  
  • The remaining budget for 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to four years at the 2025 emissions levels.
  • Scientific Assessment:
    • Climate change is already reducing land and ocean carbon sink efficiency, signalling worsening planetary feedbacks.

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