Sri Lanka’s Election and Ensuing Relation with India

Anura Kumara Dissanayake Leader of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, has been elected as the 10th President of Sri Lanka.

• The NPP has received 42.3% of the votes in these elections, which is a significant upgrade from the 3% of the vote share it secured in the 2019 election.
• Facts:
• • Anura Kumara Dissanayake became the first Marxist political head of the country.
  • The counting of votes entered for the first time to the Second Round, a first since the introduction of the system of executive presidency in 1978. 

About Anura Kumara Dissanayake

• He is the current party leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the National People’s Power.
• Constitutional Positions:
  • Parliamentarian: He was first elected to parliament in 2001 and has remained an MP since then.

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Challenges for India

• The Tamil Issue: Mr.Dissanayake is not in favour of the implementation of the 13th amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, devolving powers to the country’s Tamil minority.
  • The President-elect has also opposed any investigation into the alleged war crimes committed during the civil war between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Sri Lankan forces.
• Anti India Stance: The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Party is known for its foundational anti-India and pro-China stance with the founding leader of the Party, the late Rohana Wijeweera calling out ‘Indian expansionism’ in the 1980’s
• Indian Projects: President Dissanayake’s focus on sovereignty will likely lead to Re-engagement in terms of various foreign projects. 
  • The President promised to cancel Gautam Adani’s 450 MW wind power project in Sri Lanka if elected, describing the agreement as ‘corrupt’ and skewed against Sri Lanka’s interests.
• Exclusionary Ideology: Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Party’s ideology is based on exclusion of minorities like the Tamils and Muslims from almost all realms of activity.
  • Example: Dissanayake was an active participant in the anti-India protests of 1987, opposing the India-Sri Lanka accord, which remains the only document on which peace has been negotiated so far. 
• Political Headwinds in Neighbourhood: India is witnessing a hostile political environment in its neighbourhood with Communist/ Marxist governments in Nepal and Sri- Lanka, Pro China Islamist leaning Maldives and Pakistan and widespread political unrest in Bangladesh and Myanmar endangering its regional security.

Opportunities For India

• Building on Goodwill: India has provided the beleaguered Sri Lankan economy with assistance of over USD 4.5 billion and supported Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring efforts during the Island nation’s economic crisis of 2022, resulting in  a significant goodwill for India across political circles, which India can further build upon. 
  • Mr. Dissanayake lauded  India’s role in addressing the economic crisis of 2022 in an interview
• India’s Security Concern: Dissanayake assured as a key policy stance to ensure Sri Lanka’s sea, land, and airspace are not allowed to be used in ways that threaten India and regional stability.
  • Example: The past government has leased the Hambantota Port to a Chinese firm.
• India’s Support in Development Efforts: The President elect’s  focus on enhancing Sri Lanka’s economic resilience without falling prey to debt dependency (China)  will provide India with considerable opportunities to support the country in its development efforts. 
  • Example: About 22 percent of Sri Lanka’s debt was owed to bilateral creditors, with China and Japan each accounting for 10 per cent and India for 2 per cent.
• Balanced Foreign Policy Approach: Mr. Dissanayake is said to pursue a balanced foreign policy approach emphasising on nonalignment and equi-distance from the major powers in pursuit of Sri Lanka’s national interests. This may help India acquire certain controversial Chinese investments for itself. 
• Engaging all the Political Spectrums: India did host Mr.Dissanayake in February 2024, arranging a meeting with NSA Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in a move widely seen as learning from its failed ‘putting all eggs in a single basket’ strategy in Maldives and Bangladesh. 
• Some Reassurance to Tamils: Mr. Dissanayake has promise to hold elections to provincial councils, a tier of government that the JVP had once opposed, must be reassuring to Tamils
• Help in Dairy Sector: The new President is interested in adopting the AMUL model of India for development of Sri Lanks’s Dairy Sector. India can be a partner for Sri Lanka by providing its expertise. 
  • Example: A joint venture agreement among India’s National Dairy Development Board, the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation, and Cargills of Sri Lanka for self-sufficiency in the dairy sector was signed last year.

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