Recently, The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released the 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled, ‘The Real Fertility Crisis’.

Key Highlights of the Report

India’s Statistics

• Current Population (2025):
  • India: 146.39 crore (highest globally), expected to peak at 170 crore in ~2060s, then decline.
  • China: 141.61 crore.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
  • India’s TFR: 1.9 (below replacement level of 2.1).
  • Replacement-level fertility achieved nationally (SRS 2021: TFR was 2.0).
• Demographic Dividend:
  • 68% working-age population (15-64 years).
  • Youth population: 24% (0-14 years), 17% (10-19 years), 26% (10-24 years).
  • Elderly (65+ years): 7% (expected to rise).
• Life Expectancy: Men: 71 years, Women: 74 years.
• Reproductive Health & Unmet Needs
  • 36% of Indians experience unintended pregnancies.
  • 30% cannot fulfill desired family size due to:
    • Financial constraints (38%), job insecurity (21%), lack of childcare (18%).
    • Health barriers (infertility, poor maternal care access).
  • Adolescent fertility rate: 14.1 per 1,000 girls (15-19 yrs) (higher than China, Sri Lanka).

Global Statistics

• World Population Trends
  • Global population: ~8.2 billion (2025).
  • Fertility decline: 60% of countries now have below-replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1).
  • Fastest-growing regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Asia.
  • Shrinking populations: China, Japan, South Korea, Eastern Europe.
• Top 5 Most Populous Countries (2025)
  • India – 1.46 billion
  • China – 1.42 billion (declining)
  • USA – 345 million
  • Indonesia – 285 million
  • Pakistan – 245 million
• Global Fertility Trends
  • Global total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.25 in 2024, projected to reach 2.1 (replacement level) by 2050 (UN DESA, 2024).
  • Highest TFR: Niger (6.7), Somalia (6.1), DR Congo (5.9).
  • Lowest TFR: South Korea (0.7), Hong Kong (0.8), Singapore (0.9).
  • Replacement-level (2.1): Only 93 countries remain above this threshold.
• Life Expectancy & Aging Populations
  • Global life expectancy: 73 years (2025).
    • Highest: Japan (84.5), Switzerland (83.9).
    • Lowest: Central African Republic (54), Chad (53).
  • Aging populations:
    • Japan: 30% over 65 years.
    • Europe: 20% elderly.
    • India: 7% elderly (but rising fast).

What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

• Definition: TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years (usually 15–49 years) under current fertility patterns.
• A TFR above 2.1 indicates population growth, around 2.1 suggests replacement-level fertility, while below 2.1 signals population decline and aging, leading to long-term socio-economic and workforce challenges for a country.

Reasons for Fertility Decline in India

• Improved Female Education and Empowerment: Increased literacy and higher educational attainment delay marriage and childbearing.
  • Women with 12+ years of schooling have a TFR of 1.8 compared to 2.8 for those with no education (NFHS-5, 2019-21).
• Rising Cost of Child Rearing: The report finds that one in five people globally expect not to have the number of children they desire due to the prohibitive cost of parenthood, job insecurity, housing, and other concerns.
• Delayed Marriages and Career Aspirations: Delayed marriages shorten the reproductive span, reducing TFR. Many women delay childbearing to pursue education or careers.
• Decline in Infant Mortality and Improved Healthcare: India’s infant mortality rate has declined to 28 per 1,000 live births (SRS 2020), reducing the perceived need for multiple children as ‘insurance’.
  • Institutional deliveries are now above 88%, further enhancing child survival rates.
• Changing Social Norms and Smaller Family Preferences: Unequal division of domestic labor discourages women from having more children.
  • UNFPA (2025) reports 41% of women and 33% of men in India prefer two children, showing strong social acceptance of small families.
• Fertility Awareness and Government Campaigns: Campaigns like “Hum Do, Hamare Do”, Mission Parivar Vikas, and ASHA outreach programs have helped normalize small families.
  • The UNFPA report notes India has demonstrated how “reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together” through such efforts.
  • According to NFHS-5 (2019–21), modern contraceptive use rose 54 to 67%, with high awareness across most states.
• Infertility and Health Challenges: Limited access to affordable infertility care, especially in the public sector, and health issues like poor general well-being (15%) and limited pregnancy-related care (14%) contribute to lower fertility.
• • Around 27.5 million couples face infertility, exacerbated by lifestyle factors like obesity, stress, smoking, and pollution (UNFPA Report 2025).

Impacts of Declining Fertility in India

Positive 

• Demographic Dividend Opportunity: A lower dependency ratio can boost productivity through a larger working-age population.
  • As of 2025, 68% of India’s population is in the working-age group (15–64), offering a demographic dividend window.
• Increased Women’s Empowerment: Fertility decline is often associated with more autonomy and decision-making power for women.
  • UNFPA highlights that empowered reproductive choices are linked to better education and employment outcomes for women.
• Improved Child Investment and Education: Smaller family sizes allow more resources per child, improving quality of education and care. 
• Environmental Sustainability: Fewer births reduce pressure on natural resources and ecosystems.
  • India’s projected TFR decline to 1.29 by 2050 could lower per capita carbon emissions, aiding climate goals.
• Better Health Outcomes for Women: Reduced pregnancies lead to fewer complications and better long-term health for women.

Negative Impacts

• Shrinking Workforce in the Long Term: In the absence of adequate youth replacement, future labour shortages may arise.
  • UN projections suggest India’s population will peak at 170 crore by early 2060s and begin to decline, potentially limiting economic growth thereafter.
• Ageing Population Pressure: With fewer births, the proportion of elderly increases, creating care and pension burdens.
  • As per UNFPA, India’s elderly (65+) population is currently 7%, projected to rise sharply as life expectancy reaches 74 years for women and 71 for men.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Low-fertility states may face youth shortages while high-fertility states still grapple with overpopulation.
  • States like Bihar (TFR 3.0) and Sikkim (TFR 1.0) illustrate India’s “high fertility–low fertility duality,” creating challenges for uniform policy implementation.
• Underachievement of Fertility Aspirations: Many individuals are unable to have their desired number of children due to economic and social constraints.
  • According to the UNFPA report, 30% of Indians have unfulfilled fertility desires, and 23% faced both unintended pregnancies and fertility denial.
• Increased Social Isolation and Mental Health Issues: Declining fertility combined with late marriages can lead to rising loneliness and family fragmentation.
  • The UNFPA report mentions a growing “loneliness epidemic” as one of the modern challenges affecting fertility decisions and long-term well-being.
• Disrupted Family Structures: Smaller families weaken traditional support systems, increasing elderly isolation. 
  • Nuclear families in urban areas (e.g., TFR: 1.6) face eldercare challenges, unlike rural UP with TFR: 2.4) (SRS 2021).
• Irreversal Trend: Historical data from developed nations suggests that once fertility rates drop below the replacement level, reversing the trend becomes exceedingly difficult. 
  • Japan was the first country to experience the implications of falling fertility rates. 
  • The increasing dependency ratio has led to near zero GDP growth since the 1990s, and the country is facing fiscal challenges to meet rising social security costs.

Challenges in Managing Fertility in India

• Reproductive Agency Crisis: Limited access to reproductive choices prevents individuals from achieving desired family sizes. 
  • About 30% of Indians face unfulfilled desires for more or fewer children, and 36% experience unintended pregnancies (UNFPA Report 2025).

• High Regional and Socioeconomic Disparities: Managing fertility is difficult due to stark differences across states, castes, and income groups.
  • TFR is 3.0 in Bihar, and 1.0 in Sikkim, highlighting India’s “high fertility–low fertility duality”.
• Unmet Reproductive Goals: Millions face a gap between their desired and actual fertility, due to both over- and under-achievement.
  • In India, 36% reported unintended pregnancies, and 30% said they couldn’t fulfill their fertility desires, showing systemic reproductive gaps.
• Limited Access to Infertility and Specialized SRH (Sexual and Reproductive Health) Care: Infertility services remain largely absent in public healthcare and unaffordable in private setups.
  • An estimated 27.5 million couples in India face infertility, yet public sector support is inadequate and confined to urban areas.
• Persisting Urban-Rural Divide: Rural areas have limited access to family planning tools, awareness, and services compared to urban centres.
  • Seven states have not yet reached replacement fertility in rural regions, reflecting service and outreach gaps.
• Cultural and Gender Norm Barriers: Patriarchal norms, son preference, and pressure from family reduce women’s agency in fertility decisions.
  • 19% of Indian respondents faced pressure from partners or families to have fewer children than they personally wanted.
• Youth Reproductive Health Neglect: High adolescent fertility remains a concern, especially in poorer states.
  • India’s adolescent fertility rate is 14.1 per 1,000 women (15–19 years), much higher than China (6.6) and Sri Lanka (7.3), risking poor maternal-child outcomes.

Government Initiatives on Fertility in India

• National Population Policy (NPP), 2000: Aims to achieve replacement-level fertility (TFR 2.1).
  • Focuses on voluntary and informed choice, access to contraception, and improving maternal and child health.
• Mission Parivar Vikas (2016): Launched in 146 high-fertility districts across 7 states (Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Assam).
  • Provides free contraceptives, spacing methods, and behaviour change communication.
  • Helped raise awareness in TFR > 3 districts like Bihar (TFR 3.0) and UP (TFR 2.7).
• Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) & FP2030 Commitments: India is a signatory to the global FP initiative to ensure universal access to family planning by 2030.
  • Introduced new contraceptives like Antara (injectable) and Chhaya (non-hormonal pills).
  • Trained over 3 lakh ASHAs to deliver contraceptives to last-mile users.
• National Health Mission (NHM): Includes Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health (RMNCH+A) strategy.
  • Addresses adolescent fertility, maternal care, and birth spacing.
  • Supports menstrual hygiene schemes, peer educators, and adolescent health days.
• Scheme for ASHA Workers: Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) are incentivized to promote birth spacing, contraceptives, and institutional delivery.
  • They play a vital role in rural fertility management and awareness, especially among young mothers.
• Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) & Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK): Encourage institutional deliveries to reduce infant and maternal mortality.
  • Provide free delivery, transport, and postnatal care, supporting family planning post-delivery.
• Laws on Marriage Age & Child Protection: Prohibition of Child Marriage Act (2006) and proposals to raise legal age of marriage for girls to 21 aim to reduce adolescent pregnancies and early childbearing.

Way Forward and Recommendations: Managing Fertility in India

• Adopt a Rights-Based Approach to Reproductive Health: Shift from population control to reproductive agency, where individuals decide if, when, and how many children to have.
  • UNFPA 2025 recommends recognizing fertility goals as a personal and human right, not a demographic target.

• Expand Access to Quality Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH) Services: Ensure universal access to contraception, safe abortion, infertility treatment, and maternal healthcare.
  • India has over 27.5 million infertile couples, but public fertility services remain limited.
• Target High Fertility States with Localized Interventions: States like Bihar (TFR 3.0), UP (2.7), and Meghalaya (2.9) need focused programs addressing cultural, educational, and healthcare gaps.
  • Support region-specific schemes like Mission Parivar Vikas, and scale up where needed.
• Address Structural Barriers to Parenthood: Invest in childcare, housing, education, and flexible work environments to reduce economic anxieties around childbearing.
  • Nearly 40% of Indians cite financial constraints and 22% housing issues as reasons for not realizing desired family size.
• Ensure Inclusivity in Family Planning Services: Extend reproductive health services to unmarried individuals, LGBTQIA+ groups, and marginalized communities.
  • UNFPA advocates for inclusive, stigma-free access to services beyond traditional marital norms.
• Enhance Data Collection and Monitoring: Go beyond TFR; track Total Wanted Fertility Rate (TWFR), reproductive intentions, and unmet needs.
  • Bihar and Meghalaya show TFR > TWFR (e.g., Bihar: 3.0 vs 2.2), indicating unintended fertility and lack of access.
• Foster Social Norm Change and Health Literacy: Run campaigns to challenge stigma, son preference, and myths about contraception and infertility.
  • Engage community leaders, ASHA workers, and youth to build fertility awareness and bodily autonomy.

Conclusion

India’s fertility decline to a TFR of 1.9 (UNFPA 2025) reflects progress in education, healthcare, and reproductive rights but poses challenges like aging populations and regional disparities. A rights-based approach, inclusive policies, and targeted interventions in high-fertility states are crucial for sustainable demographic resilience. 

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