• An increase in the number of births does not necessarily lead to an increase in TFR.
• Whether TFR will increase depends not only on the number of births (numerator), but also on the number of women in the childbearing age groups (denominator).
• Thus, even if there are more births, TFR may not increase if there are also more women in the childbearing age groups.

What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

• Definition: TFR refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years (usually 15–49 years) under current fertility patterns.
• A TFR above 2.1 indicates population growth, around 2.1 suggests replacement-level fertility, while below 2.1 signals population decline and aging, leading to long-term socio-economic and workforce challenges for a country.

Replacement Level TFR

• Definition: Replacement level TFR is the average number of children per woman required to maintain a population at a stable level, without immigration. It is generally considered to be 2.1 for most populations.
• Significance: Achieving replacement level fertility implies a balance between births and deaths, helping to stabilize the population in the long term.

Mean Age at Effective Marriage

• Definition: The Mean Age at Effective Marriage for females is the average age at which women actually begin living with their spouses, marking the start of marital cohabitation rather than just the legal or ceremonial marriage.
• Significance: This measure better reflects the timing of exposure to the risk of childbearing, and is thus a more accurate indicator for analyzing fertility patterns and reproductive behavior compared to the age at formal marriage.

Demographic dividend

• Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential resulting from a shift in a country’s age structure, mainly when the working-age population is larger than the dependent population.
• India’s demographic dividend will continue at least till 2055–56. It will peak around 2041, when 59% of its population will be of working-age (20–59 years).
• In India, this offers an opportunity to boost productivity and economic development, provided adequate investments are made in education, skills, and employment.