The UN ESCAP 2025 Asia-Pacific Disaster Report warns that Asian megacities like Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Manila, Seoul, and Shanghai could experience 2–7°C additional warming due to the urban heat island effect.
- The Report also warns that India is among five Asia-Pacific countries where agriculture faces consistently high risk from rising temperatures, threatening crop yields, labour productivity, and rural livelihoods.
Key Findings from the Report
- Urban Heat Island Effect:
- Temperature Spike: Urban form, dense construction and limited green cover could add 2–7°C to baseline global warming levels by 2100, even if global warming stabilises at 1.5–2°C.
- High-Risk Cities: Cities like Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Manila, Shanghai, Seoul face severe intensification of localized heat.
- Heat Index Exposure:
- Hot Days: India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh may face 300+ days annually with a heat index above 35°C.
- Acute Stress Thresholds: Many regions may experience 200+ days above 41°C, a level associated with extreme danger and likely heatstroke.
- Highest Risk Category: South and Southwest Asia fall under Heat Index Categories 3 & 4—the highest stress and exposure levels in the region.
- Since the heat index includes humidity, it provides a more accurate measure of “felt temperature.”
- Rapid increase in Extreme Heat events:
- Shift in Regional Disaster Patterns: Traditionally dominated by cyclones and droughts, Asia-Pacific now sees extreme heat rising fastest.
- Record Heat: 2024 was the hottest year ever, with prolonged heatwaves across Asia.
- Bangladesh (April–May 2024) faced the worst heat disaster, affecting 33 million people
- 2024 heatwave in India: second-deadliest event claiming ~700 lives
- Health and Livelihood Impacts:
- Chronic Risk: Over 40% of South and Southwest Asia’s population will face heat index levels above 35°C and 41°C in medium- and long-term scenarios.
- Heat-Related Mortality: Heat-related deaths may double by 2050.
- Most Vulnerable Groups: Urban poor, older adults, children, outdoor workers, low-income neighbourhoods with little green cover.
- Severe Health Risks: Extreme heat disrupts the body’s ability to regulate temperature, causing cardiovascular stress, kidney injury, respiratory distress, cognitive impacts, and heatstroke.
- Worsening Inequalities: Urban poor face higher exposure; richer areas remain cooler and greener.
- Example: Bandung, Indonesia recorded a 7°C temperature difference between richest and poorest neighbourhoods.
- Heat and Air Quality Feedback Loop
- Pollution Intensification: Heat increases droughts and wildfires, releasing PM10, PM2.5, CO₂, CO, NOx, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), including acrolein and formaldehyde.
- Compound Hazards: Extreme heat + pollution create a dangerous feedback loop, amplifying climate and health risks.
- Economic Losses:
- Productivity Loss: Working hours lost to heat stress projected to rise from 3.75 million to 8.1 million full-time job equivalents (1995–2030).
- Annual climate-induced economic losses may rise to nearly $498 billion under high-emission scenarios.
- Most Affected Sectors: Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, especially in South and Southeast Asia.
- Impact of Extreme Heat on Agriculture:
- Falling Crop Yields: Extreme heat is pushing crops into severe stress;
- For Example, India’s wheat crop withered in March 2022 due to unprecedented heatwaves during a critical growth stage.
- Livestock Productivity Decline: Rising temperatures reduce livestock fertility, feed intake, and milk/meat yield.
- Labour Losses: High heat reduces physical capacity, exacerbates dehydration, and lowers farmworker productivity by up to 27%.
- Deepening Rural Poverty: Heat-driven crop failures and labour losses can push rural communities into poverty traps, especially in regions with limited adaptation capacity.
- Limited Heat Warning Systems
- Coverage: Just 54% of global meteorological services issue extreme heat warnings.
- Potential Lives Saved: Expanding heat-health warning systems in 57 countries could save ~100,000 lives annually.
About Asia-Pacific Disaster Report (APDR)
- Published by: The APDR is published every two years as a flagship report of UN ESCAP’s Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division.
- Purpose and Scope: Its primary objective is to enhance understanding of disaster risks, existing vulnerabilities, and their broader implications for sustainable development across the Asia-Pacific region.
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28 Nov 2025
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