US Attack On Venezuela

Recently, the United States carried out Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing and removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. 

• The move marked a shift from diplomatic pressure to direct military intervention, with the US announcing temporary control over Venezuela and plans to sell its oil, reshaping regional geopolitics.

Why Did the US Capture Nicolas Maduro?

• “Don-roe Doctrine” in Action: The 2026 intervention marked the operationalisation of Trump’s rebranded Monroe Doctrine, asserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere through direct action rather than diplomacy.
• Narco-State Justification: The US Justice Department portrayed President Nicolás Maduro as the head of a narco-state, citing criminal indictments linking him to the Tren de Aragua network and alleged conspiracies to traffic cocaine and fentanyl into the United States. 
  • The US argues that under Maduro, organised drug trafficking became embedded within state structures, with illicit revenues sustaining regime survival and influencing state policy—a phenomenon commonly described as narco-terrorism.

• Failure of Sanctions & Diplomacy: Years of economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and opposition backing failed to dislodge Maduro, prompting a shift to coercive regime change.
• Energy Imperialism & Oil Control: Venezuela’s 300+ billion barrels of proven oil reserves were central. The US openly signalled intent to temporarily govern Venezuela, rebuild its oil sector, and make supplies accessible to US energy companies.
  • Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, exceeding even Saudi Arabia, making control over its energy sector strategically significant for global oil markets and geopolitics.
• Countering Great Power Rivals: Removing Maduro was aimed at dismantling a strategic foothold for China and Russia, which had deepened military, economic, and technological ties with Caracas.
• Regional Stability Narrative: The move was framed as necessary to address state collapse, refugee flows, organised crime, and instability spilling across Latin America.

Historical Context

• The 2024 Election Trigger: The crisis escalated after the disputed 2024 presidential elections, in which opposition leaders presented evidence of a landslide victory. 
  • President Nicolás Maduro’s refusal to step down led to the complete collapse of the Barbados Agreement, ending prospects for a negotiated democratic transition.

• The 2025 Military Buildup: By mid-2025, the US significantly expanded its naval presence in the Caribbean, conducting pre-emptive actions against drug-smuggling networks and illicit oil shipments. 
  • These moves aimed to cripple the regime’s shadow economy and marked a shift from sanctions-led pressure to military coercion.
• Generational and Ideological Rivalry: The confrontation traces back to Hugo Chávez’s 1999 Bolivarian Revolution, which replaced a US-aligned liberal democratic model with an anti-imperialist socialist order. 
  • This ideological shift resulted in decades of sanctions, diplomatic estrangement, and strategic hostility between Washington and Caracas.

United States–Venezuela Relations- 26-Year Overview

• Chavez Era (1999–2013): Hugo Chavez launched the Bolivarian Revolution, nationalised the oil sector, and pursued an anti-United States, left-wing foreign policy, strengthening ties with Russia, China, and Iran. 
  • Relations deteriorated due to accusations of authoritarianism, expulsion of United States-backed Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and the 2002 coup attempt, which Venezuela blamed on the United States.
• Maduro’s Rise and Early Tensions (2013–2019): Nicolas Maduro assumed power amid economic decline and corruption scandals. 
  • The United States imposed sanctions on officials and key sectors. 
  • Hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and mass migration escalated. 
  • Disputed elections in 2018 sparked political crises; opposition leader Juan Guaidó gained recognition from the United States and its allies.
• Escalation under Trump’s Second Term (2025):
  • Military Build-up: The United States deployed the USS Gerald R Ford, other warships, troops, and F-35 Lightning II stealth jets near the Caribbean Sea.
  • Designation of “Cartel de los Soles”: The United States labelled it a terrorist organisation, accusing Maduro of leading it.
  • Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Operations and Sanctions: Trump authorised covert CIA operations, increased oil sanctions, and issued Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) travel advisories.
  • Venezuelan Response: Maduro denounced United States actions and conducted nationwide military drills, highlighting heightened tensions.

Current Dynamics & Key Flashpoints (2026)

• Leadership Standoff: Following Maduro’s removal, Venezuela’s Supreme Court appointed Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez as Interim Leader. 
  • She has adopted a defiant stance, declaring Maduro the “only legitimate president” and warning of a prolonged national resistance.
• Democratic Hopes vs External Control: Opposition leader María Corina Machado, operating from exile, has called for a civilian-led democratic transition. 
  • However, US statements downplaying her role suggest a potential clash between external military “management” and domestic democratic aspirations.
• Emerging Security Vacuum: The mobilisation of Colectivos (pro-government militias) and the possibility of Cuban security involvement raise fears of an asymmetric insurgency, risking Venezuela’s descent into a long-term low-intensity conflict.

The Indian Perspective

• Principled Commitment to Sovereignty: India’s response reflects its long-standing support for state sovereignty, non-intervention, and international law, consistent with its strategic autonomy and United Nations-centric diplomacy. 
  • The principle of non-intervention, enshrined in Article 2(7) of the UN Charter, prohibits external interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and remains a cornerstone of the post-colonial international order. 
  • India remains cautious of externally imposed regime change, given the risks of precedent and selective application.
• Measured Diplomatic Signalling: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a carefully worded statement expressing “deep concern”, urging all parties to respect sovereignty and international law, while avoiding explicit condemnation of the United States. 
  • This calibrated silence also reflects the need to preserve India–US strategic convergence and ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.
• Energy and Economic Stakes: Venezuela remains significant for India’s energy security. 
  • Historically, India imported USD 6–7 billion worth of Venezuelan crude annually, though US sanctions had curtailed imports, prompting diversification towards Russia, the Gulf countries, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. 
  • ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) has substantial investments in Venezuelan oil fields, including the San Cristobal projects, which could be at risk in case of regime change or prolonged conflict.
  • A sustained escalation in South American geopolitical tensions may trigger spikes in Brent crude prices, affecting India’s oil import bill; however, as long as prices remain near $60 per barrel, the fiscal impact is manageable due to diversified import sources. 
  • The US intervention also represents a historic geopolitical shift, expanding US’s strategic sphere of influence in Latin America and raising concerns about the safety of oil infrastructure, potential supply chain disruptions, and global oil market volatility.
• Global South Leadership: As a leading voice of the Global South, India is attentive to how unilateral interventions affect South–South solidarity and norms against coercive regime change, especially in resource-rich developing states.
• Multilateral Mediation Role: India may engage through BRICS or United Nations platforms to advocate a civilian-led, inclusive political transition, resisting outcomes that reduce Venezuela to a proxy or puppet state, while upholding the principle of non-intervention.
• Consular and Humanitarian Priorities: Ensuring the safety of Indian nationals and supporting humanitarian access remain immediate operational concerns.

Global Impact of the US Capture of Maduro

• Shift in Intervention Norms: The operation marks a significant departure from traditional diplomatic and economic pressure toward direct military intervention against a sitting head of state, raising concerns about the erosion of sovereignty norms under international law.
• Energy Market Volatility: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (300+ billion barrels). US control and planned exploitation of these reserves could reshape global oil prices, affect OPEC dynamics, and impact energy security for developing nations.
• Great-Power Rivalry Intensification: The capture disrupts Russian and Chinese influence in Latin America, where both countries had established economic, military, and technological footholds. This may trigger countermeasures or heightened strategic posturing in the region.
• Global South and Multilateralism: Many Global South nations view the intervention as a violation of sovereignty, potentially weakening UN-based conflict resolution mechanisms and encouraging unilateral approaches by powerful states.
• Security and Migration Consequences: Political instability could exacerbate refugee flows, human trafficking, and narcotics smuggling, impacting regional and global security architectures.
• Taiwan and Strategic Signaling:
  • Shift in Intervention Norms: The US operation in Venezuela demonstrates the willingness to act unilaterally, signaling that traditional deterrence and diplomatic pressure can be overridden by direct military action.
  • Deterrence vs. Emboldenment: While some fear China could cite the Venezuela precedent to justify action against Taiwan, the display of US military capability may instead deter China from misadventures in the near term.
  • Great-Power Rivalry Intensification: The operation underscores US resolve to counter Chinese influence globally, including in strategic regions such as the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing the stakes in Taiwan.
  • Implications for Chinese Ambitions: Expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and overseas influence faces limits, signaling that US action can disrupt China’s strategic calculations.

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Challenges & Concerns Arising from the US Intervention in Venezuela

• Sovereignty and International Law: The capture of a sitting head of state by a foreign military represents an extraordinary escalation in international conduct, blurring the boundaries between law enforcement, regime change, and armed intervention.
  • Violation of Sovereignty: The capture of a sitting head of state sets a precedent for extraterritorial military interventions, undermining Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
  • Erosion of International Norms: Raises fears that powerful states can bypass diplomacy or Security Council approval, weakening multilateral conflict-resolution mechanisms.
• Regional Stability Risks: Disruption of state control may enhance drug trafficking and organised crime, affecting regional security.
  • Asymmetric Conflict: Mobilisation of Colectivos (pro-regime militias) and potential Cuban involvement increases the risk of a protracted insurgency.
  • Refugee Flows: Political instability could trigger mass migration into neighbouring countries, straining resources and creating humanitarian crises.
• Energy and Economic Concerns: US control of Venezuela’s 300+ billion barrels of crude could distort prices and affect OPEC dynamics.
  • Access for Developing Countries: Nations like India and China may face limited access to Venezuelan oil, affecting energy diversification strategies.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The intervention directly challenges Russian and Chinese influence in Latin America, increasing the likelihood of strategic escalation.
  • Global South Distrust: Developing nations may perceive this as US imperialism, complicating future cooperation on multilateral platforms like BRICS or the UN.
• Democratic Legitimacy and Governance: US-led temporary administration risks marginalising Venezuelan democratic actors like María Corina Machado.
  • Long-Term Governance Gap: Unclear timelines for restoring local control may result in political vacuum, weakening institutions and rule of law.

Way Forward

• Transition to Multilateral Oversight: The US must shift from directly “running” Venezuela to a United Nations–Organization of American States (UN–OAS) monitored framework, ensuring inclusive elections and restoring legitimacy to the political process.
  • Multilateral supervision would help prevent perceptions of a proxy or puppet state and uphold international norms.
• Institutional Rebuilding: Restoration of the National Assembly’s authority is crucial to prevent a colonial-style occupation.
  • Strengthening domestic institutions is key to ensuring rule of law and sustainable governance.
• Inclusive Dialogue and Reconciliation: Stability cannot be achieved if “Chavista” supporters are entirely sidelined.
  • A Chavista refers to a supporter or adherent of Chavismo, the political ideology associated with Hugo Chávez, the former President of Venezuela.
  • A South African–style Truth and Reconciliation approach may be necessary to heal societal divisions, prevent insurgency, and integrate former regime supporters into a peaceful political framework.
• Security and Humanitarian Measures: Immediate measures should protect civilians, refugees, and foreign nationals, while disarming and integrating armed militias (Colectivos).
  • Humanitarian aid should be delivered via multilateral channels to avoid politicisation.
• Energy and Economic Stabilisation: Venezuela’s oil sector must be managed transparently, with equitable access for global markets to prevent monopolisation by any single power.
  • Ensuring economic stability is essential to support political transition and regional security.

Conclusion

The 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro sets a perilous precedent for unilateral intervention. For India, sovereignty, dialogue, and multilateralism are strategic imperatives, while inclusive transition and civilian protection remain key to restoring Venezuela’s legitimacy and stability.

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