A recent disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo in December 2024 has claimed over 400 lives.
The disease is yet to be classified, raising concerns it might be “Disease X.”
What is Disease X?
- Disease X is a hypothetical term introduced by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018.
- It refers to an unknown pathogen capable of causing a global epidemic or pandemic.
- Origin: The term gained relevance after the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, which revealed gaps in epidemic preparedness.
- This disease embodies both “known unknowns” (threats we are aware of but don’t fully understand) and “unknown unknowns” (threats we aren’t aware of).
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What is the Pandemic treaty?
- It is a global agreement led by WHO.
- Objective: It aims to increase international cooperation and preparedness for future pandemics.
- Launch Date: 2021 ( to address some of the weaknesses in capacities and lack of international cooperation during covid 19).
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Causes of Disease X
- Pathogen Types: Could be a virus, bacteria, parasite, fungi, prion, or other organisms.
- Zoonotic Spillover:
- Most emerging diseases (70%) originate from animals, often due to:
- Deforestation
- Human encroachment on wildlife habitats
- Agricultural intensification
- Other Risks: Antimicrobial resistance, lab leaks, bioterrorism, and climate change affecting disease dynamics.
Challenges in Predicting Disease X
- Unpredictable Factors: Emergence depends on various factors, including zoonotic diseases, pathogen mutations, and deliberate biological threats.
- Climate Change Impact: Alters disease transmission patterns and forces pathogens to adapt to new hosts or environments.
- Limited Knowledge: Only a fraction of potential human-infecting viruses have been identified.
- Technological Advances: Tools like genomic sequencing and artificial intelligence help narrow possibilities but cannot predict Disease X’s exact origin or timing.
India’s Preparedness for Disease X
India is in need of better preparation for disease X therefore it must focus on key areas such as
- strengthening disease surveillance systems
- enhancing healthcare infrastructure
- expanding vaccination coverage
- and improving sanitation practices.
International cooperation will also play a major role in effective response during emergence of new disease. So, India should strengthen its ties with other countries to take collective step.
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Way forward
- Strengthening Surveillance: There should be high surveillance so that outbreaks can be detected using advanced tools like genomic sequencing, AI, and real-time data sharing.
- Investing in Healthcare: Focus on improving healthcare infrastructure, especially in low-income countries.
- Prototype Platforms: Organisations like CEPI are developing adaptable platforms to create diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines within 100 days of identifying a new pathogen.
WHO’s Priority List of Pathogens
- First Real Disease X: COVID-19 is considered the first real Disease X due to its novel and unpredictable nature.
- Origins: The concept emerged after the West African Ebola epidemic (2014-2016), which highlighted gaps in global epidemic preparedness.
- Priority Pathogens: The WHO’s list includes diseases like Ebola, Marburg, Lassa fever, Nipah virus, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Zika virus, and Disease X.
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- These are prioritized due to their high mortality rates, rapid spread potential, and lack of medical countermeasures.
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