As World Population Day is observed on July 11th, there is much to look at in India’s demographic journey over the decades.

• This annual event voices against global population growth and proposes creating a sustainable world for future generations. 

About World Population Day

The Day is celebrated annually to emphasise the urgency and importance of population issues. 

• Establishment: The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) was established in 1989, the day after Dr. K.C. Zachariah, a renowned demographer, proposed the concept of a ‘World Population Day’. 
• Origin: To the “Day of Five Billion” (July 11th, 1987), when the world population had touched five billion (in 1987) and challenges such as poverty, health and gender inequality were plaguing the world, developing countries in particular.
• Theme of World Population Day 2024: “Leave no one behind, count everyone” 
  • The theme highlights the importance of investing in data collection to understand issues, tailor solutions, and drive progress. 
  • The theme changes annually and is decided by the UNDP in coordination with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). 
• We need to Celebrate World Population Day. This day focuses on population issues and spreads awareness regarding the negative impact of overpopulation. 
  • The rise in population causes many public health challenges, results in environmental degradation, and strains resources. Raising awareness about the crucial issues that foster discussion and finding solutions is important.

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A few Important Facts About the Population

The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. 

• World Population Prospects Report: The global population is projected to grow from 8.2 billion in 2024 before peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
  • The world’s population is expected to reach 2 billion in the next 30 years and 9.7 billion in 2050.
• Most Populous Countries: The two most populous countries are India and China; both have over 1 billion people, representing nearly 18% of the world’s population. 

Analysis of India’s Population Dynamics

Three components, namely fertility, mortality, and migration, play a pivotal role in shaping India’s demographic landscape. 

• United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Report: In April 2023, India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, with more than 1.4 billion citizens.
  • As much as 68% of India’s population belongs to the 15-64 years category, and 26% in the 10-24 years group, making India one of the youngest countries in the world.
  • The percentage of the elderly population has been increasing from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016.

• Factors for Slow Rate of Population Growth: Increased use of contraceptive methods, spacing of pregnancies, access to health care and the impetus to family planning, besides increasing wealth and education
• Decline in Fertility Rate: According to the Sample Registration System survey conducted yearly by the Indian government, the birth rate declined steadily from 2011 to 2020.
• • According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 3.4 to 2 between 1992 and 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.
    • It means below the replacement level of fertility, or the rate at which a generation replaces itself.
  • However, the number of people in the country is still expected to continue to rise for the next few decades, hitting its peak of 1.7 billion by 2064.
• Decline in Mortality Rates: There has been a significant drop in the mortality rate as well. 
  • The average life expectancy of Indians has also increased over time. With this, India is experiencing a demographic shift, towards an ageing population. 
  • Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR): It decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020 
  • Mortality Rate for Children under Five: It reduced significantly post 2000s. 
  • Infant Mortality Rate: It also reduced from 66.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 25.5 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2021 
  • According to the 2011 Census, individuals aged 60 years and above constituted 8.6% of the total population. The figure is projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050. 
• Migration and Urbanisation: The rural to urban migration of the Working age population has led to increased labour force in the Urban areas.
• Other Components: In addition to fertility, mortality, and migration, following factors also play a significant role:
  • Public Policy: Such as Family policy, immigration policy, health policy, education policy, etc. have a significant impact on demography of India.
  • Environmental Factors: Environmental factors and demography influence each other.

What do these Changing Dynamics Signify?

India’s population dynamics is intertwined with its ‘development’ scenario. 

• Reduction in Fertility Rate: It signifies a transition toward smaller family norms. 
  • This can reduce the proportion of the dependent population and India can harness the potential of its young workforce by creating employment. 
• Decline in Mortality Rate and Increase in Life Expectancy: These are reflections of a robust health-care system and increased living standards. 
  • The issue of population ageing, however, requires a long-term plan — focusing on geriatric care and providing social security benefits. 
• Rapid Rural to Urban Migration: It is posing a threat to the existing urban infrastructure. 
• Others: Gender equality also finds an important place. Women labour force participation, which is straggling, are the silent issues which can sabotage India’s path to 2030.

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Opportunities with Demographic Dividend in India

Demographic dividend refers to the growth in an economy that is the result of a change in the age structure of a country’s population. This typically happens due to declining birth rates and mortality rates, leading to a larger proportion of the population being in the working age group (15-64 years old) compared to the dependent groups (children and elderly).

• Increased Labour Participation: The rapidly rising young population results in the increased labour supply, as more people reach working age.
• More Economic Growth: Demographic dividend has historically contributed up to 15 % of the overall growth in advanced economies.
• High Capital Formation: The pattern of saving increases with the decrease in the number of dependents, which increases national savings rates, increases the stock of capital in developing countries and provides an opportunity for enhanced capital formation through investment.
• Rise in Infrastructure Development: Potential demographic dividend enables the government to divert resources from spending on children to investing in physical and human infrastructure.
• Increase in Female Labour Participation: Decrease in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures, and provides an opportunity to engage more women in the workforce and enhance human capital.
• Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A young population can lead to increased innovation and entrepreneurship, with more startups and unicorns emerging in various sectors like healthcare, education, agriculture, and financial services.
• Favourable Climate Action and Sustainability: A young and educated population can drive sustainable development by prioritising climate action and adopting environmentally friendly practices.
• More Global influence: India’s rising population, along with its position as the world’s largest democracy and one of the major economies, can help it become a global manufacturing hub, startup capital, and exporter of skilled manpower.

Concerns Related to High Population

The following challenges associated with high populations need to be considered and tackled.

• Adverse Economic Consequence: Rampant poverty, rising inequality and widespread unemployment and underemployment.
  • Prevalence of Inequality: According to Oxfam, the top 10% of India’s population holds 77% of the national wealth. If development does not percolate to the poorest of the poor, then ‘sustainable development’ can never be achieved in its truest sense.
  • Jobless Growth: As per the NSSO Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India’s labour force participation rate for the age-group 15-59 years is around 53%. 
    • This means that around half of the working age population is jobless. 
  • Rise in Informal Economy: The workers in the Informal economy are underpaid and devoid of social security benefits.
• Negative Social Consequences: 
  • Low Women Participation in the Labour Force: World Bank data shows that female labour participation in India plunged from 32% in 2005 to 19% in 2021.
    • Periodic Labour Force Survey (2022-23): Female participation is only around 37.0%. 
  • Low Usage of Contraceptive: About half of all Indians still don’t use modern methods of contraception. The burden of contraceptive usage falls disproportionately on women, while condom usage remains unacceptably low at less than 10%.
• Health Danger: Malnutrition and several illnesses are caused by a low standard of living.
  • Global Hunger Index (2023): India’s rank was 111 out of 125 countries. 
  • In terms of nutrition, stunting, wasting and underweight among children below five years and anaemia among women pose serious challenges. 
  • India’s epidemiological trajectory shows that the country has a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCD). 
  • India contributes a third of the global burden of malnutrition. 
    • Though the Indian government launched the Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment (POSHAN) Abhiyaan in 2018, it will still require a miracle to fulfil the target of ‘Zero Hunger’ by 2030.
• Formation of Poor Human Capital and Development: It is reflected in low employability among India’s graduates and postgraduates. 
  • According to ASSOCHAM, only 20-30 % of engineers find a job suited to their skills.
  • In UNDP’s Human Development Index, India ranks 134 out of 189 countries. 
• Loss of Identity: Fear of loss of identity of ethnic minorities and migrants may also arise from overpopulation. 
  • It might fuel communalism and cause rifts in the social fabric based on religion and place of origin.
• Governance and Environmental Challenge: Due to an increase in life expectancy and the resultant rise in the elderly population, healthcare and social security costs have increased.
  • Due to overpopulation and resultant environmental damage, infectious diseases evolve and spread easily. Eg: Covid-19.
• Regional Variations in Fertility: Population heavy states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to have very high fertility rates of 2.4 and 3 respectively.

Government Schemes for Potential Demographic Dividend

The government is committed to overcoming barriers related to access, misconceptions about contraceptive methods, lack of awareness, geographical and economic challenges, and restrictive social and cultural norms.

• Mission Parivar Vikas: It aims to increase access to contraceptives and family planning services in certain high fertility districts.
• National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme: It insures its clients in case of death, complication and failure following sterilisation. Additionally, family-planning services are being extended to the last mile through Ayushman Arogya Mandirs.
  • In 2012, the Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health (RMNCH+A) approach was introduced alongside the emphasis on family planning through Family Planning 2020 and now Family Planning 2030.
• The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): It came into effect in 2006 and played a critical role in addressing rural poverty. 
• The Janani Suraksha Yojana of 2005: It provides cash benefits to pregnant women — not only accentuated institutional deliveries but also saved poor families from hefty health expenditures.
• National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC): It has been with the overall target of skilling/ up-skilling 500 million people in India by 2022.
• Others: The Government has provided various successful schemes like Ayushman Bharat and Integrated Child Development (ICDS) programmes.
  • As endorsed in the United Nations International Conference on Population Development (ICPD), India has not only provided leadership to the ICPD agenda but has also demonstrated progress through improved family-planning services and improving health outcomes, especially maternal health and child health.

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Way Forward

India needs to address income inequality, harness its demographic dividend by creating job opportunities for the youth of India and address changing health needs. For India to achieve the SDGs, the changing population dynamics has to be acknowledged while forming policies. 

• Empowerment of Women: More gender equal societies have lower fertility rates and improved demographic indicators.
  • NFHS 5 points out that girls who study longer have fewer children and also take up employment.
  • As women become more empowered, they are also better valued as members of the society, thus reducing the felt need for a male child. The success of the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign in Haryana is a case in point.
• Capacity Development: Two-thirds of India’s total population is between the ages of 15 and 64. 
  • Education, skill development and creating opportunities, especially for the youth of disadvantaged sections and women, will hold the key to the country using the demographic dividend to its advantage in the next 20 years.
• Building Human Capital: There is a need to invest in healthcare, quality education, jobs and skills to build human capital, which can in turn support economic growth, end extreme poverty, and create a more inclusive society.
• Improvement of Health and Nutrition: Improvement in healthcare infrastructure would ensure a higher number of productive days for the young labour-force, which increases the productivity of the economy. 
  • NCDs, which incur high out-of-pocket expenditures, are catastrophic for some families. India needs a stronger safety net to save these families from slipping into utter poverty. 
  • The nutrition scenario should be set right by strengthening programmes. This will require an increase in budgetary allocation for the health and nutrition sectors. 
• More Job Creation: The nation needs to create ten million jobs per year to absorb the addition of young people into the workforce. 
  • There is a need to promote businesses’ interests and entrepreneurship would help in job creation to provide employment to the large labour-force.
• Emulating the Success of Southern States: Fertility reduction was successful in five southern states defies conventional wisdom that literacy, education, and development are required for population stabilisation.
  • Southern governments actively encouraged families to have only two children, followed by sterilisation.
  • Male vasectomy, which is far safer than female sterilisation, should be promoted by national and state policies.
• Increase Family Planning Expenditure: India’s per-capita gross domestic product can rise an additional 13% by 2031 if family planning policies are actively prioritised.
  • This can prevent 2.9 million infant deaths and 1.2 million maternal deaths and save households Rs 77,600 crore (20%) of out-of-pocket health expenditure on childbirth and child hospitalisation.
• Focus on Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): With 2030, the target year, drawing closer, India’s progress in the SDGs should be understood particularly in light of its population dynamics.
  • ‘Development’ in the simplest way means ensuring the basic requirements of food, shelter and health for all. ‘No Poverty, Zero Hunger and Good Health’ are the three most important SDGs which form the core of ‘development’. 
• Others: The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% to 10% between 1990 and 2019. 

Conclusion

India’s demographic dividend must navigate the complexities of sustainable development, urbanisation, and migration. Integrating these factors into the policies ensures that demographic growth translates into a sustainable future and inclusive prosperity. Successful interventions must go hand-in-hand with niche strategies.

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