Answer:

Introduction

‘Grey zone’ warfare refers to activities that blur the line between peace and war, involving coercive actions below the threshold of conventional military conflict. In the context of India, this often includes cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and cross-border skirmishes, primarily from adversaries like Pakistan and China.

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Necessity for India to develop capabilities to address ‘grey zone’ warfare originating from China and Pakistan

• Counter-Disinformation: Both adversaries use disinformation to destabilize India. Countering this requires stronger fact-checking mechanisms. Example: multiple fake news campaigns have been detected emanating from Pakistan.
• To Tackle Border Intrusions and Encroachments: For this, India needs to Develop capabilities to deter and respond effectively to China’s territorial assertiveness along the India- China border. Ex- The Doklam standoff in 2017, demonstrated China’s ‘grey zone’ tactics.
• Space Capabilities: Both China and Pakistan are expanding their space capabilities, often for military purposes. India needs to match these advances to prevent potential ‘grey zone’ threats, as shown by India’s anti-satellite missile test, Mission Shakti.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: China’s dominance in critical supply chains, such as pharmaceuticals and electronics, can be used coercively. India should develop self-reliance in these sectors to mitigate risks.
• Demographic Warfare: Pakistan’s alleged support for forced migration to alter the demographic profile in regions like Kashmir can be seen as a grey zone tactic. India needs to address this through inclusive development policies and effective border management.
• Sea Lane Intrusions: Chinese naval activities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) aim to disrupt India’s influence. Therefore, strengthening maritime surveillance and defense capabilities is crucial.
• Diplomatic Manipulations: Both China and Pakistan have tried to isolate India diplomatically, particularly over the issue of Kashmir. India needs to counteract this through effective diplomatic engagement and alliances.
• Technological Espionage: Cases of suspected technological espionage from China necessitate the development of secure communication networks and stringent data protection laws in India.
• Economic Coercion: China has used its economic might to exert pressure on India, exemplified by selective trade restrictions. India needs to diversify its trade relations and reduce economic dependence on China to counter such tactics.

Crucial role that can be played by diverse security forces and agencies in effectively countering such tactics

• Indian Armed Forces: They can lead in countering physical ‘grey zone’ activities like border skirmishes, and develop capacities for cyber warfare. Joint military exercises with allies can strengthen preparedness.
• Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research and Analysis Wing (RAW): They play a crucial role in gathering intelligence on foreign and domestic threats. National Cyber Coordination Centre (NCCC) could be placed under them for specialized cyber threat intelligence.
• Indian Navy and Coast Guard: Their role is critical in countering underwater and maritime ‘grey zone’ activities. Deployment of AI-based underwater surveillance could be considered for advanced threat detection.
• Central and State Police Forces: They can be instrumental in counteracting disinformation campaigns through community policing, promoting media literacy at grassroots levels. A dedicated disinformation countermeasures unit within each police department could be considered.
• Border Security Forces (BSF) and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP): Strengthening surveillance capabilities along sensitive borders using advanced technologies like drone surveillance and AI-based facial recognition could help counter infiltrations and smuggling.
  
• Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO): Its role in developing cutting- edge technology for space and cyber warfare is crucial. Partnering with academia and private sector for innovation could help maintain technological edge.
• Ministry of External Affairs (MEA): Its diplomatic efforts can help counter ‘grey zone’ warfare by strengthening international coalitions. A dedicated division within MEA focusing on ‘grey zone’ threats could coordinate responses at an international level.

Conclusion

‘Grey zone’ warfare given its covert, unconventional nature requires India to innovate and adapt beyond traditional security paradigms. Leveraging the strengths of different security forces and agencies with a multi-faceted, coordinated approach, and fostering innovation and collaboration can significantly enhance India’s resilience against these tactics.

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