Answer

Artificial Intelligence (AI), the simulation of human intelligence by machines, and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the development of machines capable of performing any intellectual task a human can, are revolutionizing global geopolitics. Nations are investing heavily in AI-driven technologies, sparking a competition akin to a ‘Digital Cold War,’ where dominance in algorithms supersedes traditional military power. 

Enroll now for UPSC Online Course

Emergence of the ‘Digital Cold War’

• Shift from Military to Algorithmic Dominance: The global AI race emphasizes data control and computational resources over traditional military power, redefining global influence.
  For example: China’s Qwen 2.5 and DeepSeek challenge U.S. dominance, showcasing how AI breakthroughs are now central to geopolitical power dynamics.
• AI Arms Race Among Superpowers: The U.S. and China are investing heavily in advanced AI models, creating a strategic rivalry akin to the Cold War’s nuclear arms race.
  For example: The U.S. CHIPS Act aims to restrict China’s access to semiconductors, critical for AI development, highlighting algorithm-driven competition.
• Economic Weaponization of AI: Nations are leveraging AI for economic dominance, focusing on sectors like fintech, healthcare, and defense for influence in global markets.
  For example: The use of AI-based trade surveillance systems in the U.S. and China ensures economic and supply chain security globally.
• Rise of Digital Empires: Tech corporations like OpenAI, Tencent, and Huawei function as non-state actors, contributing to geopolitical power shifts through technological innovations.
  For example: Huawei’s AI-driven 5G infrastructure influences digital ecosystems, creating dependencies that impact global alliances.
• Surveillance and Cybersecurity Concerns: AI-driven surveillance tools, such as facial recognition systems, are reshaping how nations project power and control dissent.
  For example: China’s Social Credit System uses AI to monitor citizen behavior, expanding the state’s control over individuals and influencing its geopolitical narrative.

AI and AGI Advancements Reshaping Global Geopolitics Positively

• Enhancing Global Cooperation: AI fosters collaboration on challenges like climate change, with nations uniting to deploy advanced systems for sustainable development and environmental conservation.
  For example: The AI for Earth program by Microsoft is used globally to tackle deforestation and water scarcity, showcasing international partnerships.
• Advancing Healthcare Systems: AI enables breakthroughs in predictive analytics and global health responses, offering faster solutions for pandemics and medical crises.
  For example: During the COVID-19 pandemic, AI-powered tools predicted outbreak trends, aiding in policy decisions and vaccine distribution strategies.
• Driving Global Economic Growth: By automating processes and improving efficiencies, AI contributes significantly to GDP growth, benefiting developing and developed nations alike.
  For example: India’s adoption of AI in agriculture through the Digital India initiative has improved crop yield predictions, boosting farmers’ income.
• Improved Disaster Management: AI’s ability to analyze vast datasets aids in predicting and mitigating natural disasters, ensuring global resilience.
  For example: The UN’s AI-driven satellite systems monitor climate-induced disasters like floods, providing early warnings and saving lives.
• Empowering Smaller Nations: Advanced AI tools enable smaller nations to compete in global geopolitics by improving governance, defense capabilities, and economic efficiency.
  For example: Estonia’s e-governance system, powered by AI, has set benchmarks globally, improving administrative transparency and efficiency.

Negative Impacts of AI and AGI Advancements on Global Geopolitics

• Exacerbation of Geopolitical Inequality: Advanced AI is concentrated in a few nations, marginalizing developing countries, deepening the technological divide, and creating AI oligopolies.
  For example: Only countries like the U.S., China, and a few European nations dominate AI patent filings, leaving smaller economies dependent on their technology.
• Weaponization of AI: AI-powered autonomous weapons and cyber warfare tools escalate the risk of conflicts, undermining global security and violating international norms.
  For example: AI-enabled drone strikes used in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict raised concerns about the ethical use of autonomous weaponry.
• Economic Displacement and Trade Wars: Nations adopting AI-driven automation face job losses, resulting in global economic instability and protectionist policies triggering trade conflicts.
  For example: The U.S.-China trade war intensified as both countries sought dominance in semiconductor production critical for AI development.
• Erosion of Privacy and Digital Sovereignty: AI surveillance tools empower governments to control populations, fostering authoritarian regimes and cross-border data espionage.
  For example: China’s use of AI-driven facial recognition systems to monitor the Uyghur population has raised international human rights concerns.
• Ethical and Regulatory Fragmentation: Differing AI policies among nations create a fragmented global framework, preventing collaboration and fueling distrust in cross-border technologies.
  For example: The EU’s strict AI Act contrasts with China’s more permissive approach, limiting international AI interoperability and cooperation.

Check Out UPSC CSE Books From PW Store

Strategic Measures India Should Adopt to Maintain Technological Competitiveness

• Focus on Ethical AI Development: Developing regulations for safe and ethical AI use ensures international credibility and leadership in tech diplomacy.
  For example: NITI Aayog’s AI for All initiative emphasizes inclusive and ethical AI deployment, ensuring fair technology use.
• Strengthen AI Research Ecosystem: India must invest in AI-specific research centers and encourage academia-industry partnerships to foster indigenous innovations.
  For example: Setting up institutions like I-Hub, initiative by Gujarat Government under the Digital India program has boosted local talent in AI development.
• Enhance Semiconductor Manufacturing: Building semiconductor infrastructure is critical to reducing dependencies on foreign nations for AI development.
  For example: The Indian government’s PLI scheme aims to establish domestic chip manufacturing units, a core component of AI infrastructure.
• Develop AI Talent Pool: Skill development programs for AI engineers and data scientists can address the talent shortage in the AI domain.
  For example: Programs like Skill India AI certification train young professionals to apply AI and Big Data Analytics across various industries, contributing to India’s AI advancement.
• Promote Public-Private Partnerships (PPP): Collaborating with tech giants and startups can amplify resources for innovative AI projects.
  For example: The Tata Consultancy Services partnership with the Indian government integrates AI solutions in public welfare schemes like Ayushman Bharat.

Embracing innovation and collaboration positions India to harness AI-driven growth amid the Digital Cold War. Strengthening research ecosystems, investing in skilled talent, and forging strategic partnerships ensures technological resilience. Pioneering ethical algorithms fuels a future-forward India, setting the stage for global leadership in AI. Let us Innovate, adapt, and lead the future.

DOWNLOAD PDF