Answer

Introduction

India’s relationship with Russia has long combined defence cooperation, energy security and strategic affinity. But in the post-Russia–Ukraine war era, Western sanctions on Russia and shifting global alignments expose New Delhi to complex challenges like threatening the sustainability of this partnership and testing India’s strategic autonomy.

Body

Strategic challenges India faces with Russia today

• Defence-supply uncertainty: Many of India’s weapons and spares come from Russia; sanctions-linked production delays endanger timely supply and readiness.
  Eg: Delays in delivery of Russian-origin systems such as air-defence platforms due to Russia’s wartime strain. 
• Trade imbalance & financial risk: Bilateral trade is heavily skewed where India imports far more (oil, gas, defence) than it exports, building up rupee-payment surplus and complicating rupee–rouble settlements.
  Eg: In FY 2024–25, India’s imports from Russia exceeded exports by over US$60 billion. 
• Sanctions & secondary-pressure: Continued Russian engagement attracts scrutiny from Western powers; there is a risk of secondary sanctions or trade/financial pressure on Indian firms.
  Eg: India’s refusal to join Western sanctions triggered public criticism and diplomatic unease in Western capitals. 
• Geopolitical friction: Russia’s growing proximity to China complicates India’s China-border security concerns, dragging New Delhi into broader Eurasian strategic rivalries.
  Eg: Russia-China military cooperation and “no limits” partnership post-2022 raise anxiety in Indian strategic circles. 
• Reputation & global standing: By maintaining deep ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, India risks alienating Western partners and weakening its global diplomatic leverage. 
• Over-dependence risk: Reliance on Russian energy and defence leaves India vulnerable to external shocks (sanctions, supply disruptions, price volatility). 
• Constraints on diversification: Sanctions and restrictive financial regimes make it difficult for India to expand trade, investment and high-tech cooperation with Russia.
  Eg: Indian firms and banks remain cautious of rupee–ruble transactions due to compliance and convertibility issues.

How India can navigate the balance while asserting strategic autonomy

• Diversify trade basket: Expand exports to Russia in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, IT and manufacturing to reduce trade imbalance and build mutual economic stake.
• Promote joint production: Shift from import-dependence to co-development and “Make in India” defence production with Russian collaboration, reducing supply vulnerability.
• Strengthen rupee–rouble mechanism: Institutionalise reliable rupee–ruble settlement channels insulated from Western sanctions to stabilise trade and payments. 
• Maintain multipolar diplomacy: To protect autonomy, maintain ties with Russia while continuing to engage with Western allies through frameworks like Quad and multilateral organizations.
• Enhance supply-chain resilience: Diversify defence procurements across countries, invest in domestic R&D and reduce over-reliance on a single external partner. 
• Transparent communication: Clearly state India’s stance to Russia and its allies in the West: neutral in conflict but dedicated to peace and free will. 
• Leverage non-defence cooperation: Deepen civil-nuclear, energy, connectivity and people-to-people ties to make India–Russia relations broader than just defence or energy. 

Conclusion

India’s ties with Russia remain a vital pillar of its strategic architecture, especially for defence and energy. Yet changing geopolitics and sanctions demand recalibration. By diversifying trade, promoting domestic production, strengthening financial mechanisms and sustaining global engagement, India can uphold its relationship with Russia without compromising its strategic autonomy or global standing.

DOWNLOAD PDF