Answer:

Introduction:

The Global Nuclear Order, established in the aftermath of World War II and during the Cold War, was primarily aimed at mitigating nuclear dangers, preventing arms racing, and inhibiting the spread of nuclear weapons. This order was built on the “twin pillars” of mutual stability in major nuclear rivalries, particularly between the US and the Soviet Union, and non-proliferation to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states​​.

Body:

Evolution of GNO Since the Cold War

• Construction of the Nuclear Order: Initially, the focus was on establishing mutual deterrence and arms control, especially between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which came into force in 1970, became a cornerstone of this order.
• Post-Cold War Optimism: The end of the Cold War brought a sense of optimism. The collapse of the Cold War structure and the reduction in hostility between Moscow and Washington suggested the potential for a cooperative international security system and a new era of ambitious arms control​​.

Impact of Changing Geopolitics and National Interests

• Disillusionment of Early Optimism: The high hopes of a more benign nuclear order post-Cold War have been dramatically disappointed. Issues such as Russia’s strained relations with the West, China’s rise, and the emergence of new nuclear states have complicated the global nuclear landscape. The degradation of key arms control agreements and technological advancements in surveillance and accuracy threaten the stability that has been one of the pillars of the GNO​​.
• Strain on Traditional Arms Control Models: The classic model of arms control, exemplified by U.S.-Russia agreements, is under immense pressure due to the changing security climate and the return of great power competition. Despite this, arms control remains crucial in reducing the risk of nuclear war.
• Deteriorating Non-Proliferation Environment: The security environment for a successful non-proliferation regime is deteriorating, challenged by geopolitical strategies of major powers like Russia and China, the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, and the nuclear ambitions of North Korea.
• Need for New Strategic Approaches: The current geopolitical context necessitates rethinking stability, considering new technologies in non-nuclear strategic domains, and initiating strategic dialogues, not just bilaterally with Russia but also multilaterally with China and other emerging powers​​.

Conclusion:

The GNO has evolved significantly from its Cold War origins, transitioning from a bipolar focus to a more complex multipolar reality with numerous challenges. The changing geopolitical landscape, marked by the resurgence of great power competition and the advent of new technologies, requires a reimagined approach to arms control and non-proliferation. The future stability and effectiveness of the GNO depend on the ability of major powers to adapt to these changes and find new avenues for cooperation and dialogue, ensuring a stable and secure global nuclear environment.

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