Answer:

Introduction:

China’s maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is reshaping global stability and regional power dynamics, presenting a multifaceted challenge to India and its strategic interests. This expansion is part of China’s broader strategy to extend its influence across critical maritime and trade routes, thereby increasing its geopolitical leverage and military reach.

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Implications on Global Stability and Regional Power Dynamics:

• Expanding Influence: China’s military presence in the Indian Ocean, as part of its “String of Pearls” strategy, aims to secure its trade routes, especially those critical for energy supplies. This presence is likely to bolster China’s regional influence in peacetime, offering it strategic advantages over key chokepoints and sea lines of communication. However, this expansion has raised concerns among regional players and beyond, given the strategic implications of China’s growing footprint on international trade and security dynamics​​.
• Dual-use Infrastructure: Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has invested in infrastructure projects with dual-use potential, such as ports in Djibouti, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. These projects, while primarily economic, offer military logistics and basing advantages, increasing the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) operational reach and complicating the security calculus for India and other regional powers​​.
• Security Risks and Vulnerabilities: China’s military assets and infrastructure in the IOR, while enhancing its peacetime influence, could become vulnerabilities in conflict scenarios. The proximity of these assets to Indian military capabilities and U.S. bases, like Diego Garcia, exposes them to potential countermeasures in wartime, highlighting the risks associated with extended supply lines and overseas bases​​.

Strategies for India to Counter China’s Ambitions:

• Strengthening Maritime Partnerships: India can enhance its strategic positioning by bolstering partnerships with key IOR countries and beyond. Agreements like the Master Ship Repair Agreements with the U.S. signify a step in this direction, enabling U.S. naval ships to use Indian ports for maintenance and repair, thereby increasing the collective military presence in the IOR to counterbalance China’s expansion​​.
• Enhancing Military Capabilities: To ensure a balanced and stable maritime domain, India should continue to upgrade its naval capabilities, focusing on anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies, maritime domain awareness, and blue-water operational capacities. This includes investing in advanced surveillance, missile technology, and submarine warfare capabilities.
• Investing in Regional Infrastructure: Competing with China’s BRI, India could increase its investment in regional infrastructure projects, focusing on sustainable and transparent financing options. Such efforts should prioritize enhancing connectivity and economic integration with neighboring countries, leveraging institutions like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to foster regional cooperation.
• Promoting Multilateralism: India should champion multilateral initiatives that promote open and inclusive regional architecture. Engaging with forums such as the Quad, ASEAN, and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) can help build consensus on maintaining freedom of navigation, upholding international law, and ensuring unimpeded commerce in the IOR.

Conclusion:

China’s maritime expansion in the IOR poses both challenges and opportunities for India and global stability. By adopting a multifaceted approach that includes strengthening alliances, enhancing military capabilities, investing in regional infrastructure, and promoting multilateralism, India can effectively counter China’s ambitions and contribute to a balanced and stable maritime domain.

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