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Introduction

India’s SCO engagement, amid strained US ties, offers opportunities but also challenges as China and Pakistan expand influence; with most neighbours involved, safeguarding India’s strategic autonomy is crucial.

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Challenges for India within the SCO

• China’s Expanding Dominance: China uses SCO to project itself as South Asia’s primary benefactor, sidelining Indian influence.
  Eg: Beijing’s trilaterals with Pakistan–Afghanistan and Pakistan–Bangladesh under its Belt and Road Initiative deepen China’s strategic footprint.
• Pakistan’s Diplomatic Posturing: Pakistan exploits the SCO platform for anti-India narratives and to block counterterrorism efforts.
  Eg: Despite SCO’s counterterrorism mandate, Pakistan avoids censure for cross-border terrorism due to Chinese backing.
• Economic Vulnerabilities with China: India remains reliant on Chinese imports for critical sectors like rare earth magnets and tunnelling equipment.
  Eg: Beijing’s embargo on rare earth magnets disrupted India’s automobile industry in 2024.
• Marginalisation of SAARC: The SCO fills the vacuum left by an inactive SAARC, diluting India’s traditional regional influence.
  Eg: Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are actively associated with SCO, with China backing Bangladesh’s entry.
• Limited Trade Benefits: SCO’s trade potential for India remains minimal compared to the US market.
  Eg: India’s exports to Russia and China in 2024 were $5 billion and $15 billion respectively, against $88 billion to the US.
• Unresolved Border and Security Tensions: China’s military presence along the LAC undermines trust in regional cooperation.
  Eg: Lack of progress in resolving border disputes continues to limit India’s leverage in the forum.

Way Forward to Safeguard India’s Strategic Autonomy

• Revitalise Bilateral and Multilateral Balances: Strengthen ties with Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN to offset SCO-centric dependencies.
  Eg: PM of India’s planned initiatives in Tokyo focus on defence, technology, and trade diversification.
• Leverage SCO for Counterterrorism Agenda: Push for binding mechanisms against state-sponsored terrorism despite resistance.
  Eg: India’s repeated calls within SCO forums to list Pakistan-based groups under UN sanctions regimes.
• Enhance Energy Diversification: Reduce overdependence on Russian oil through expanded Gulf and US energy partnerships.
• Expand Regional Connectivity and Trade: Use initiatives like the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to boost Eurasian trade.
  Eg: Chabahar port development for connecting Central Asia bypassing Pakistan.
• Institutionalise Strategic Autonomy Policies: Strengthen domestic manufacturing and rare earth processing to counter Chinese economic leverage.
  Eg: Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes in critical minerals and electronics announced in 2024.

Conclusion

To safeguard autonomy, India should balance SCO pragmatism with deeper ties to Japan, ASEAN, and Gulf states, diversify trade and energy, boost resilience via PLI, and leverage INSTC—guided by Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam for inclusive growth and regional peace.

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