Answer

Introduction

The global geopolitical reset has exposed India to external unpredictability and regional assertiveness. US doubles tariff on select Indian goods to 50%, citing Russia oil ties, affecting 55% of Indian exports to the US. Also, China’s assertive aggression and nexus with Pakistan poses challenges to India’s security, trade, and strategic autonomy.

Body

Challenges from the Unpredictable U.S. and Assertive China

Unpredictable USA

• Erosion of Trust with Strategic Partners: Strategic partners like the U.S. hesitated to condemn Pakistan post-terror attacks, revealing selective support.
  Eg: Post Operation Sindoor, U.S. hosted Pakistan’s Field Marshal and claimed credit for ceasefire, sidelining India’s decisive military action.
• Unilateral Trade & Technology Pressure from the U.S.: India faces tariff hikes and investment pullbacks despite ongoing tech collaborations.
  Eg: On the day the NISAR satellite launched (India-U.S. project), the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs and warned of penalties for importing Russian oil.
• Security Insensitivity in India’s Neighbourhood: U.S. is seen as insensitive to Indian regional concerns, empowering adversaries and weakening allies.
• Strategic Hedging & Realignment in East Asia: Possibility of U.S.-China rapprochement may sideline Indian interests in the Indo-Pacific.
  Eg: Nvidia allowed to resume AI chip sales to China; East Asian nations hedged, reducing India’s space in the region.

Assertive China

• China’s Aggressive Strategic Moves in South Asia: China is encircling India through military, infrastructure, and political means.
  Eg: China–Pakistan–Bangladesh trilateral proposal, airbase revival near Siliguri, and large Brahmaputra dam near Arunachal.
• Economic Leverage & Supply Chain Dependency on China: China uses trade surplus and supply chain control to squeeze India strategically.
  Eg: Dominance in rare earths, fertilizers, APIs, and tunnel boring machines gives China economic coercive power over India.
• Diplomatic Marginalisation in Global Conflicts: India’s cautious stance on conflicts may weaken global voice and reciprocal support.
  Eg: India’s silence on Gaza, Iran–Israel conflict, and Ukraine war reduced its moral leverage post-Operation Sindoor.

Strategies to Balance U.S.-China Impact and Preserve Strategic Autonomy

• Assertive Multi-Alignment and Strategic Diversification: Deepen ties with BRICS, SCO, ASEAN, and other multilateral platforms beyond the U.S.-led frameworks.
  Eg: Hosting BRICS 2026 Summit and rebalancing ties with Russia, Iran, and East Asian countries enhances India’s geopolitical agency.
• Proactive Participation in Global Conflicts: India must take a principled, visible stand on global issues to gain reciprocal support.
• Strategic Economic Realignment and Trade Diplomacy: Fast-track balanced FTAs to reduce overdependence and counter Western coercion.
  Eg: India-UK CETA concluded.
• Securing Critical Supply Chains and Technological Sovereignty: Reduce Chinese leverage by diversifying sources and investing in domestic capabilities.
  Eg: Targeted import substitution in APIs, rare earths, and AI tech after Chinese restrictions on critical materials.
• Border and Maritime Vigilance: Enhanced surveillance and outreach in immediate neighbourhood counters Chinese encirclement.
  Eg: India launched revised MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) Policy with expanded vision for security and development across the Global South.
• Balanced Engagement with U.S.: Preserve ties with the U.S. but reject unilateral impositions that harm sovereignty.
• Narrative Building and Global Advocacy: Strengthen international narrative through timely diplomatic outreach and strategic communication.

Conclusion

India today faces a changing geopolitical landscape where passive non-alignment no longer suffices. Rooted in Panchsheel and the ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, India must assert its strategic interests while upholding its moral values. A confident, self-reliant India can emerge as a Vishwa-Mitra balancing power with principle, realism with responsibility, and sovereignty with global solidarity.

DOWNLOAD PDF