Answer

Stampedes, defined as sudden, chaotic movements of large crowds leading to injuries and fatalities, remain a recurring disaster in India. The NDMA guidelines emphasize capacity planning, crowd control, risk assessment, and real-time surveillance to prevent such incidents. Yet, a total of 3074 lives have been lost due to stampedes in India between 2001 and 2022.

Why stampedes continue to occur frequently in India despite NDMA guidelines on crowd management

• Poor Implementation: While NDMA guidelines provide a robust framework, implementation at the state and district levels remains inconsistent due to lack of awareness and enforcement. Many organizers do not follow capacity planning norms.
  For example: The 2013 Ratangarh Temple stampede in Madhya Pradesh, which killed over 115 people, occurred due to the collapse of a bridge railing, despite prior warnings of overcrowding.
• Lack of Real-Time Crowd Monitoring: NDMA recommends live surveillance, but many events lack adequate CCTV cameras, crowd density sensors, and AI-based monitoring to detect surges in real time and take immediate action.
  For example: The 2022 Mata Vaishno Devi shrine stampede, which resulted in 12 deaths, was attributed to a sudden rush of devotees and the absence of real-time monitoring systems.
• Deficient Inter-Agency Coordination: Various authorities (police, local administration, event organizers) fail to coordinate effectively, leading to delayed response and mismanagement during emergencies. NDMA’s Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is rarely conducted.
  For example: The 2015 Godavari Pushkaralu stampede in Andhra Pradesh, which killed 27 people, saw multiple agencies giving conflicting instructions, worsening the chaos.
• Inadequate Exit Planning: Many venues lack wide exits, clear evacuation routes, and emergency response areas, violating NDMA’s structural safety guidelines for mass gatherings. Poor signage and lighting further complicate evacuation.
  For example: The 2005 Mandhradevi Temple stampede in Maharashtra, which killed 300 people, was worsened by a narrow stairway and blocked exit routes, leaving devotees trapped.
• Failure to Regulate Spontaneous Gatherings: While planned events can follow NDMA’s crowd control protocols, spontaneous mass gatherings such as religious events or railway station rushes—often lead to unmanaged crowd surges.
  For example: The 2024 New Delhi Railway Station stampede during the Maha Kumbh rush occurred due to an unexpected surge of passengers without proper pre-emptive crowd control.
• Human Psychology: Human psychology is an important factor leading to stampedes, as all stampedes are either triggered or made worse by panic.
• High crowd Density: High crowd density refers to the number of people per unit area, which is crucial for organizing mass gatherings. When crowd density exceeds capacity without proper management, it can lead to panic and dangerous situations like stampedes.

Evaluation of the Positives of Existing Policies

• Multi-Agency Approach: NDMA’s guidelines emphasize inter-agency coordination by involving state governments, local authorities, police, and event organizers in disaster preparedness and response planning.
  For example: The Kumbh Mela 2019 in Prayagraj saw a well-coordinated effort between police, health officials, and disaster management teams, ensuring a largely incident-free event.
• Scientific Risk Assessment: The Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) help identify potential stampede risks and take preventive measures before an event.
  For example: The Jagannath Rath Yatra in Odisha now employs a risk assessment model that pre-emptively plans for crowd movements and bottlenecks, reducing stampede risks.
• Technology-Driven Crowd Control: NDMA encourages the use of live surveillance, drone monitoring, and AI-based predictive analytics to assess crowd density and trigger alerts for intervention.
  For example: During the Kumbh Mela 2021, an AI-powered crowd management system was used to analyze footfall and identify congestion hotspots in real time.
• Structured Evacuation Protocols: NDMA mandates staging points, multiple routes, and controlled crowd inflow/outflow, reducing the risk of overcrowding and bottlenecks at major events.
  For example: The Thrissur Pooram festival in Kerala successfully uses controlled entry-exit points and temporary holding zones to manage massive crowds effectively.
• Integration of Public Awareness and Training: NDMA stresses community participation and public awareness campaigns on safe crowd behavior, exit strategies, and emergency response actions, reducing panic during crises.
  For example: The Tirupati Balaji Temple Administration conducts regular awareness sessions for devotees and staff on crowd discipline and safe movement during peak hours.

Evaluation of Shortcomings in the Effectiveness of Existing Policies

• Lack of Accountability: Despite NDMA guidelines, enforcement remains weak due to poor coordination between local authorities, event organizers, and security agencies. Guidelines often exist only on paper with no strict accountability.
• Inadequate Risk Assessment: Many event organizers fail to conduct proper Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) before mass gatherings, leading to overcrowding and bottlenecks at crucial locations.
  For example: The Hathras stampede in 2024 occurred due to uncontrolled crowds, where devotees rushed to touch the preacher’s feet, triggering a deadly surge.
• Deficient Crowd Planning: Many venues lack well-designed exits, adequate lighting, or emergency evacuation routes, increasing the risk of panic-induced stampedes.
• Lack Of Live Surveillance Mechanisms: There is a failure in real-time monitoring like CCTV monitoring and AI-based crowd density analysis, which could predict and prevent stampede situations in high-risk events.
  For example: The Mumbai Elphinstone station stampede (2017) resulted from heavy rain and overcrowding, which could have been averted with real-time crowd monitoring.
• No Unified Command Structure: Crowd control often involves multiple agencies like police, disaster response teams, and local administration, but there is no unified command structure to coordinate quick responses.

Measures to Strengthen Crowd Management

• Mandatory Pre-event Risk Assessment: Enforcing Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA) before all mass gatherings should be compulsory for event approvals, ensuring better crowd flow design.
  For example: The 2019 Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj successfully prevented stampedes due to detailed crowd management plans, with diversion strategies and staggered entry-exit routes.
• AI-based Crowd Surveillance: Deploying AI-powered crowd density analysis, drone monitoring, and predictive analytics can identify congestion points and trigger early warnings to prevent crowd surges.
• Stronger Legal Accountability: Establishing strict liability for organizers and authorities if crowd control guidelines are violated can ensure better compliance and discourage negligence.
• Improved Crowd Barriers: Mandatory widening of exit routes, staggered entry-exit points, and the use of soft barriers can prevent choke points in densely packed areas.
  For example: The Jagannath Puri temple authorities redesigned exit routes after a 1993 stampede, successfully preventing recurrence in later festivals.
• Unified Command and Quick Response Teams: Creating a single command structure with rapid-response teams can improve coordination and reduce reaction time during emergencies.
  For example: The 2019 Ardh Kumbh Mela used an integrated control room, linking police, paramedics, and local administrators, ensuring swift intervention and zero major incidents.

Strengthening NDMA protocols with innovative, technology-driven strategies and robust training can transform crowd management. Real-time monitoring, public engagement, and data analytics will curb stampedes. With proactive reforms and ‘Safety First‘ initiatives, we build a future of resilient, secure mass gatherings, ensuring sustainable, adaptive policies for a safer, united India now.

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