Answer

The North-East India, a region marked by its diverse ethnic and cultural landscape, has grappled with insurgency for decades.The recent eruption of violence in Manipur in Jiribam, fueled by ethnic tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities, has brought the region’s long-standing issues to the forefrontFactor contributing to Insurgency in North East.

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Factors behind Insurgency in North East 

• Historical Ethnic Divisions: Northeast’s diverse ethnic groups frequently demand autonomy or separate homelands because of feeling of cultural disconnect with mainland India leading to alienation and secessionist tendencies
  For example: The Naga and Kuki insurgencies seek self-determination and political representation.
• Geographical Isolation and Underdevelopment: Northeast India is geographically separated from the mainland, with limited connectivity, infrastructure, and economic opportunities
• Drug Trafficking and Organised Crime: The region’s proximity to the “Golden Triangle” (Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand) has facilitated drug trafficking networks, which insurgent groups exploit for funding.
  For example: 98% of borders of region are International Border (ARC 7th report)
• Demand for Political Autonomy: Ethnic groups demand greater control over governance to preserve identities.
  For example: Kukis in Manipur seek a separate Union Territory.
• Mistrust of Government Forces: AFSPA’s long deployment has led to human rights abuse allegations, creating resentment.
  For example: AFSPA has been operational in Manipur since 1980, marking over 40 years of enforcement.

Factors Contributing to Armed Insurgency in the Recent Manipur Crisis

• Skewed Political Representation: Manipur’s geography is 90% hilly, inhabited by Kuki and Naga tribes, while the Meitei community occupies the 10% valley region. This smaller valley area holds substantial political power, creating perceptions of marginalisation among hill communities.
• Ethnic Tensions between Kukis and Meiteis: Conflicts over political and land rights have escalated.
  For example: Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status raises Kuki fears of land rights loss.
• Drug Trafficking and Border Security: Manipur’s border with Myanmar enables cross-border trafficking to finance insurgency.
  For example: Increased poppy cultivation in Kuki areas highlights external funding allegations.
• Influx of Refugees from Myanmar: Refugee inflows strain local resources and increase tensions.
  For example: The arrival of Chin refugees complicates dynamics with Meiteis.
• Political Discontent and Demand for Autonomy: Kukis and Nagas seek separate administration due to perceived Meitei dominance.
  For example: the Kuki National Organization (KNO) has advocated for a separate Union Territory to address their concerns.
• Mistrust of State Governance: Perceived bias in Meitei-dominated governance fuels Kuki militancy.
  For example: Kuki people are not supportive of police establishment in the state, leading to clashes between the two.

Implications of Insurgencies on India’s Internal Security

• Strain on Security Forces: Prolonged insurgency stretches Indian security resources.
  For example: Conflict with insurgents in Manipur diverts resources from counter-terrorism and other critical areas.
• Humanitarian and Social Cost: Violence leads to mass displacement, straining resources and stability of neighbouring states
  For example: Manipur’s violence led to 97% of internal displacements in South Asia in 2023.
• Challenges to National Integration Efforts: Insurgency complicates integration into the national mainstream.
  For example: Development projects often stall due to insurgent disruption.
• Impact on Economic Investments: Persistent unrest deters investment, perpetuating poverty and unrest.
  For example: Infrastructure projects face delays in insurgency-prone areas, affecting economic connectivity.

Implications of Insurgencies on Regional Stability

• Increased Cross-Border Drug Trade: Golden Triangle routes expand narcotics trade, affecting regional stability.
  For instance: Drug routes impact Indian border states, worsening youth addiction.
• Impact on India’s Look East Policy: The conflict can hinder India’s efforts to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian countries, as it diverts attention and resources from regional cooperation.
  For example: Delays in the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway affect regional trade.
• Cross-Border Terrorism: Insurgent groups in the region often have links with external forces, leading to cross-border terrorism and instability
• Risk of Spillover into Neighboring States: Insurgency in one state can trigger unrest in neighbouring states, given the interlinked ethnic and tribal identities  like Manipur, Nagaland, and Assam.
• Exacerbation of Illegal Arms Trade: Cross-border arms trade supplies insurgents, threatening border security.
  For example: Arms smuggling from Myanmar escalates violence in the region.
• Impact on Bilateral Infrastructure Projects: Instability delays crucial connectivity projects.
  For example: Delays in the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway affect regional trade.

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Way Forward

• Strengthening Cross-Border Security: Enhanced border security with Myanmar can curb trafficking and arms smuggling.
  For instance: Increased patrolling and surveillance can reduce insurgent resources.
• Facilitating Inclusive Dialogue: Multi-stakeholder dialogue can address grievances and promote reconciliation.
  For example: Peace committees modelled after the Mizoram Accord may reduce tensions as happened in the Bodo Accord.
• Boosting Economic Development in Conflict Zones: Targeted development can reduce insurgency appeal.
  For example: Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Manipur can generate employment.
• Leveraging Regional Cooperation for Stability: Collaborative initiatives with Myanmar and Bangladesh address insurgency.
  For instance: Joint task forces can control mutual threats and improve security cooperation.
• Reviewing and Phasing Out AFSPA: Gradual AFSPA reform can enhance human rights and trust in governance as recommended by Jeevan Reddy Committee on AFSPA.
  For example: Transitioning to local law enforcement in stable areas reduces propaganda.

The insurgency in Northeast India highlights challenges rooted in ethnic divisions, socioeconomic disparity, and geopolitical complexities. Addressing the Manipur crisis requires solutions that balance internal security and regional stability. Through enhanced border security, dialogue, and economic initiatives, India can cultivate sustainable peace, supporting both security and integration in the Northeast.

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