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Introduction

Rapid urbanisation and infrastructure expansion in India require stronger disaster preparedness frameworks. The recent rollback of the revised earthquake zoning framework by the Bureau of Indian Standards highlights the difficult balance between ensuring seismic safety, maintaining economic feasibility, and addressing climate considerations in infrastructure planning.

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Complex Trade-offs between Disaster Resilience, Economic Viability and Climate Mitigation

• Strengthening Seismic Safety vs Rising Construction Costs: Stricter seismic zoning requires stronger structural standards, increasing construction costs for buildings and infrastructure.
  Eg: A one-zone increase may raise construction costs by about 20% and two zones by nearly one-third.
• Infrastructure Resilience vs Regional Development Constraints: Higher seismic classifications may slow infrastructure expansion in vulnerable but economically fragile regions.
  Eg: The proposed Zone VI classification would cover parts of Kashmir, the Himalayan belt, Kutch and the north-east, affecting development projects.
• Urban Safety Standards vs Growth of Informal Housing: Stricter building norms may push economically weaker groups towards informal housing lacking safety standards.
  Eg: ~80% of India’s housing already lies in the informal sector.
• Disaster Preparedness vs Implementation Challenges: Transitioning to advanced risk assessment frameworks demands technical capacity and institutional coordination.
  Eg: The shift towards Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) proposed by BIS is a globally accepted but complex methodology.
• Resilient Construction vs Climate Mitigation Concerns: Stronger buildings require more materials such as cement and steel, increasing carbon emissions.
  Eg: Construction sector is among India’s largest dispersed sources of carbon emissions.

Holistic Approach to Ensure Seismic Safety

• Science-Based Zoning: Adopt modern risk assessment models while integrating regional geological data.
  Eg: Gradual implementation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) by the Bureau of Indian Standards.
• Urban Planning Regulations: Integrate seismic risk considerations into city planning and infrastructure approvals.
  Eg: Incorporating earthquake resilience into urban projects under Smart Cities Mission.
• Earthquake-Resistant Housing: Encourage cost-effective resilient construction techniques for low-income housing.
• Institutional Coordination: Ensure collaboration between ministries, regulators and engineering bodies for implementable standards.
  Eg: Consultations involving the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Central Water Commission, and National Dam Safety Authority.
• Integrating Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Adopt sustainable materials and design practices to reduce carbon footprint while ensuring safety.
  Eg: Green infrastructure approaches promoted under India’s National Infrastructure Pipeline.

Conclusion

As India’s cities expand and infrastructure scales rapidly, integrating seismic resilience with affordability and climate responsibility will be crucial. A science-based, consultative and phased approach to earthquake zoning can enable safer urban growth while aligning disaster preparedness with sustainable development and long-term climate resilience.

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