Answer

The India-China relationship has oscillated between cooperation and confrontation, particularly since the 1988 India’s Prime minister visit that laid the foundation for diplomatic ties. Despite several border clashes, such as Galwan in 2020, both nations have sought to ease tensions, driven by economic needs, military realities, and shared concerns over regional security.

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The India-China relationship has oscillated between cooperation and confrontation

Areas of Cooperation

• Economic Interdependence and Trade: Despite political tensions, India and China continue to maintain strong trade relations, with India relying on Chinese imports for key sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics.
  For example: India’s pharmaceutical industry depends heavily on Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) from China, ensuring steady economic engagement even amid geopolitical tensions.
• Diplomatic Engagement and Summits: Regular high-level meetings between Indian and Chinese leaders have facilitated diplomatic negotiations and conflict management, preventing minor disputes from escalating into full-scale crises.
  For example: The 1988 visit of Rajiv Gandhi to China helped establish mechanisms for continued diplomatic dialogue, laying the foundation for economic and political cooperation.
• People-to-People (P2P) Ties: Thousands of Indian students study in China, and cultural and academic exchanges continue despite diplomatic strains, fostering long-term understanding between the two societies.
  For example: Indian medical students in China benefit from affordable and high-quality education, helping maintain strong social and educational ties between both countries.

Areas of Confrontation

• Border Disputes and Military Standoffs: Persistent territorial disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have led to multiple military clashes, including recent confrontations at Galwan (2020) and Yangtse (2022).
  For example: The Galwan Valley clash in 2020 resulted in casualties on both sides, significantly straining India-China relations and leading to heightened military deployments.
• Geopolitical Rivalry and Strategic Conflicts: China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean and its support for Pakistan challenge India’s strategic interests, causing friction between the two countries.
  For example: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) includes projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which India strongly opposes as a violation of its sovereignty.
• Technological and Trade Restrictions: India has imposed restrictions on Chinese investments and banned several Chinese apps due to security concerns, reflecting deep mistrust in the technology and business sectors.
  For example: The Indian government banned TikTok and 58 other Chinese apps in 2020, citing national security concerns amid rising border tensions.

Key Structural Drivers Influencing the Recent Easing of Tensions

• Economic Interdependence and Trade Necessity: Both India and China rely on each other for economic growth, with India needing Chinese goods and China needing market diversification.
  For example: Over 70% of India’s Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are sourced from China.
• Military Stalemate and Cost of Prolonged Deployment: The high cost of maintaining military positions in harsh border regions has encouraged diplomatic engagement.
  For example: The prolonged standoff in Eastern Ladakh has strained resources, making a full-scale military confrontation undesirable for both sides.
• Shared Concerns Over US Foreign Policy: Both nations seek to enhance their bargaining power with the US, given trade restrictions and geopolitical pressures from Washington.
  For example: China faces US scrutiny over trade and technology, while India has tensions over immigration and security concerns, pushing both toward strategic diplomacy.
• Need for Regional Stability Amid Global Challenges: With global economic uncertainties and regional conflicts, stability in India-China relations benefits both nations.
  For example: China’s focus on Taiwan and the South China Sea compels it to manage border tensions with India to avoid multi-front conflicts.
• Diplomatic Frameworks for Normalization: Regular high-level meetings and agreements provide a structural basis for easing tensions and managing disputes.
  For example: The 2023 BRICS summit saw India and China engage in diplomatic talks, signaling a willingness to restore normalcy in relations.

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Assessment of Whether This Shift Is Sustainable in the Long Run

Sustainable in the Long Run

• Mutual Economic Dependencies: Both India and China rely on each other for trade, ensuring economic cooperation despite political tensions, making a complete breakdown unlikely.
  For example: In the fiscal year 2024, bilateral trade between India and China reached US$118.4 billion.
• Military Stalemate and Conflict Avoidance: Given the high cost of military deployments at the border, both countries have incentives to maintain stability and avoid prolonged confrontations.
  For example: The 2020 Galwan clash led to heavy military buildup, but both sides soon re-engaged diplomatically to de-escalate tensions.
• Shared Strategic Interests in a Multipolar World: Both nations seek to balance Western influence, making pragmatic cooperation a viable long-term strategy.
  For example: India and China’s participation in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) shows their willingness to collaborate on global platforms.

Not Sustainable

• Unresolved Border Disputes and Nationalism: The recurring nature of border clashes and nationalist rhetoric in both countries make long-term peace fragile.
  For example: The Doklam standoff in 2017 and subsequent clashes indicate that territorial disputes can reignite tensions at any time.
• Geopolitical Rivalries and Military Alliances: India’s growing ties with the US and participation in the Quad and increasing presence in Indo-pacific challenge China’s regional dominance, increasing strategic distrust.
  For example: China views QUAD as a threat to its dominance in the region often terming it as Asian NATO.
• Economic and Technological Conflicts: India’s restrictions on Chinese investments and security concerns over technology create long-term friction in economic relations.
  For example: The banning of Chinese apps curbs on Huawei’s participation in India’s 5G network reflects deep-rooted strategic mistrust.

Way Ahead

• Strengthening Diplomatic Channels for Crisis Management: Regular high-level talks and diplomatic engagements should be institutionalized to prevent misunderstandings and manage conflicts effectively.
  For example: Reviving the Special Representatives’ dialogue on border issues can help maintain open communication and prevent future escalations.
• Enhancing Economic Cooperation with Safeguards: While trade remains essential, India should diversify supply chains while allowing controlled Chinese investments in non-sensitive sectors.
  For example: Encouraging joint ventures in sectors like green energy and infrastructure can promote economic ties without compromising national security.
• Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) Along the Border: Strengthening border protocols, increasing military communication, and reinforcing disengagement mechanisms can prevent future clashes.
  For example: Establishing hotline communication between local military commanders can help defuse tensions quickly in case of border incidents.
• Leveraging Multilateral Platforms for Stability: Both countries should collaborate in regional and global forums to align interests and reduce hostilities.
  For example: Joint initiatives in BRICS and SCO can facilitate dialogue on trade, security, and climate change, fostering mutual trust.
• Promoting People-to-People (P2P) Engagement: Increasing educational, cultural, and business exchanges can strengthen societal-level understanding and reduce negative perceptions.
  For example: Expanding student exchange programs and cultural festivals can help counter hostility and build long-term goodwill between the two nations.

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Diplomatic engagement, economic interdependence, and strategic recalibration are key drivers behind the recent signs of ease in India-China relations. However, long-term stability will depend on sustained mutual trust, careful management of border issues, and global geopolitical dynamics. A focus on conflict resolution and cooperation can shape a balanced future.

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