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The recent visit of Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary to Bangladesh marks the first such diplomatic meeting between the two South Asian nations in 15 years. This warming of ties has potential to reshape regional power equations, especially amid changing South Asian geopolitics.

Factors Behind Thawing of Diplomatic Relations Between Pakistan and Bangladesh

• Changing Regional Geopolitics: The shifting balance of power in South Asia has prompted both nations to recalibrate their foreign policy positions.
  For example: With growing Chinese and U.S. interests in the Bay of Bengal, Pakistan is seeking renewed engagement with regional players like Bangladesh.
• Desire for Economic Cooperation: Economic pressures and the need for regional connectivity have encouraged both nations to look past historical grievances.
  For example: Bangladesh’s growing garment exports and Pakistan’s interest in trade diversification have sparked conversations on trade corridor revival.
• Generational Shift in Leadership Outlook: Younger political leadership in both countries is more focused on future-oriented diplomacy rather than historical antagonism.
• Shared Islamic Identity and OIC Engagements: Religious and cultural commonalities continue to offer soft diplomacy routes for engagement.
  For example: Both countries have shown alignment in Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) forums on issues like Islamophobia and Palestine.
• China’s Subtle Mediation and Strategic Interests: China maintains strong ties with both nations and may be subtly encouraging dialogue to strengthen its BRI presence.
  For example: Bangladesh is part of the BRI through infrastructure projects, and Pakistan is central to CPEC connecting the two improves China’s strategic depth.

Ways in which Pakistan–Bangladesh Relations Can Reshape Regional Power Dynamics

• Strategic Rebalancing in South Asia: Improved ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh can alter the regional equilibrium, weakening India’s traditional strategic leverage.
  For example: Bangladesh’s increased diplomatic diversification may limit India’s influence in forums like BIMSTEC and SAARC.
• Enhanced Role of China in the Bay of Bengal: A closer Pakistan–Bangladesh equation could provide China greater access and influence in the Bay of Bengal and northeastern Indian Ocean.
  For example: China’s BRI investments in both Pakistan (CPEC) and Bangladesh (Padma Bridge, Payra Port) could be synergized for expanded maritime dominance.
• Revival of SAARC Diplomacy: Strengthening Pakistan-Bangladesh ties could lead to a push for reviving SAARC, potentially marginalising India’s preference for BIMSTEC.
  For example: Pakistan has shown interest in SAARC revival, and Bangladesh’s improved engagement could bolster that effort, challenging India’s regional platforms.
• Reduced Indian Diplomatic Space in Bangladesh: If Dhaka strengthens ties with Islamabad, it may adopt a more neutral stance on India–Pakistan disputes, diluting India’s regional narrative.
  

How Will This Affect India’s Strategic Interest in South Asia

• Dilution of India’s Influence in Bangladesh: Closer ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan may reduce India’s exclusive strategic leverage in Dhaka.
  For example: Bangladesh may pursue a more balanced foreign policy, limiting India’s say in bilateral issues like Teesta water sharing or transit agreements.
• Threat to Regional Security Architecture: Renewed Pakistan-Bangladesh relations could raise concerns over revival of ISI networks or extremist elements in India’s eastern states.
• Maritime Security and Bay of Bengal Influence: Strategic cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh may open space for Chinese naval presence in the Bay of Bengal.
  For example: If Pakistan gains logistical access or intelligence-sharing near Chittagong Port, it could pose a challenge to India’s maritime dominance.
• Strategic Distraction in the Eastern Theatre: India may need to divert more diplomatic and military focus to its eastern front, especially in the Northeast.
  For example: Increased diplomatic vigilance and border monitoring with Bangladesh may be required if Pakistan’s footprint expands there.
• Potential Weakening of India’s Connectivity Goals: Bangladesh’s strategic location is key for India’s Act East Policy and connectivity to the Northeast and ASEAN.
  For example: Any shift in Dhaka’s priorities may slow progress on projects like the India Myanmar Thailand Highway and BBIN initiatives.

Steps India Should Take to Safeguard Its Interests

• Deepen Strategic and Economic Engagement with Bangladesh: India must proactively strengthen bilateral ties through trade, energy, and infrastructure partnerships.
  For example: Speeding up implementation of projects like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and Akhaura–Agartala railway will enhance goodwill and interdependence.
• Strengthen Sub-Regional Connectivity and People-to-People Links: India should enhance regional integration under BBIN and improve cultural, academic, and grassroots linkages.
  For example: Simplifying visa norms and boosting initiatives like the Maitree Express train between Kolkata and Dhaka can reinforce public diplomacy.
• Enhance Maritime and Defence Cooperation: India should expand naval diplomacy and joint defence exercises to reinforce regional maritime security in the Bay of Bengal.
  For example: India–Bangladesh naval exercises like Bongosagar should be scaled up to ensure maritime domain awareness and counter external influence.
• Counter Extremism and Intelligence Threats Proactively: India must strengthen intelligence cooperation with Bangladesh to monitor and prevent cross-border radical activities.
• Assertively Engage in Regional Forums: India should continue leading initiatives in BIMSTEC, IORA, and Indo-Pacific frameworks to limit space for hostile narratives.
  For example: Ensuring Bangladesh’s active participation in BIMSTEC energy and connectivity projects will reduce its dependency on other axes like CPEC.

While the Pakistan-Bangladesh diplomatic thaw may not immediately disrupt India’s strategic posture, it signals a shifting regional chessboard. India must respond by deepening its ties with Bangladesh through people-centric development, connectivity, and cultural diplomacy while vigilantly monitoring evolving equations that could alter the balance in South Asia.

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