Answer

The West Asian crisis is marked by persistent conflicts like the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the Shia-Sunni divide, and proxy wars involving regional powers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. These conflicts have intensified following the 2023 Hamas-Israel war, threatening regional stability. For India, this turmoil disrupts connectivity, bilateral ties, energy security, trade, and diaspora safety, demanding strategic interventions.

Enroll now for UPSC Online Course

Impact of the expansion of the West Asian crisis on India’s Connectivity Projects

• Disruption of Trade Routes: Escalating conflicts in West Asia can obstruct key maritime and land trade routes, affecting India’s trade with Europe and Central Asia.
  For example: Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint, can disrupt oil shipments, impacting India’s energy imports.
• Delay in Infrastructure Projects: Regional instability hampers the progress of infrastructure initiatives between India and West Asian nations, crucial for India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
  For example: The development of the Chabahar Port has faced significant delays due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and regional conflicts, affecting India’s trade connectivity with Central Asia.
• Increased Project Costs: Heightened security risks lead to increased insurance premiums and operational costs for projects in conflict zones.
  For example: The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) faces cost escalations due to regional tensions, affecting its viability.
• Investor Reluctance: Persistent instability deters investors from participating in connectivity projects, leading to funding challenges.
• Strategic Vulnerabilities: Dependence on routes through volatile regions exposes India’s trade to disruptions.
  For example: Reliance on the Suez Canal, susceptible to regional conflicts, can affect maritime trade flows.

Impact of the expansion of the West Asian crisis on India’s Bilateral Relations

• Strained Diplomatic Ties: Aligning with conflicting parties in the international arena can complicate India’s diplomatic efforts and strain its relationships with other regional players.
  For example: India’s growing strategic and defence ties with Israel, including cooperation in defence technology and counter-terrorism, have occasionally raised concerns among nations in the Middle East.
• Economic Sanctions: Engagements with sanctioned nations can attract secondary sanctions, impacting India’s economy.
  For example: Importing oil from Iran under U.S. sanctions has previously led to diplomatic challenges.
• Diaspora Safety Concerns: Escalating conflicts endanger the large Indian expatriate community in West Asia.
  For example: During the Gulf War in 1990-91, India successfully repatriated over 170,000 nationals from Kuwait amidst a volatile conflict zone and severe logistical constraints.
• Energy Security Risks: Instability threatens the steady supply of oil and gas from the region, crucial for India’s energy needs.
  For example: Conflicts in Iraq and Libya have historically disrupted oil production and exports, leading to supply shortages that triggered fluctuations and spikes in global oil prices.
• Counter-Terrorism Challenges: Regional conflicts can lead to the proliferation of extremist groups, posing security threats to India.
  For example: The rise of ISIS in West Asia fueled global terrorism, impacting radicalization and security in South Asia.

Measures to Mitigate these Impacts

• Diversification of Energy Sources: Reducing dependence on West Asian oil by exploring alternative suppliers and investing in renewable energy.
  For example: Increasing oil imports from the United States and Africa can help reduce supply risks and diversify energy sources.
• Strengthening Regional Partnerships: Enhancing ties with stable neighbouring countries can help develop alternative trade routes, improving regional connectivity and reducing dependence on vulnerable pathways.
  For example: Collaborating with Central Asian nations for overland connectivity can reduce reliance on West Asian routes.
• Active Diplomacy: Engaging in multilateral forums helps promote peace and stability in West Asia by facilitating dialogue and cooperation on regional issues.
  For example: Participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to address regional security concerns.
• Protecting Diaspora Interests: Establishing robust mechanisms for the safety and welfare of Indian nationals abroad.
• Enhancing Domestic Capabilities: Investing in domestic infrastructure enhances self-reliance by reducing dependency on external trade routes and ensuring more secure and efficient transportation networks.
  For example: Developing ports along India’s eastern coast can enhance trade connectivity with Southeast Asia, promoting economic growth and strengthening regional ties.

Check Out UPSC CSE Books From PW Store

Navigating the complexities of the West Asian crisis requires India to adopt a multifaceted strategy that balances diplomatic engagement, economic diversification, and proactive security measures. By strengthening internal capacities and fostering resilient international partnerships, India can mitigate the adverse effects of regional instability and safeguard its national interests.

DOWNLOAD PDF