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Introduction

Global climate cooperation now appears increasingly fragile as the United States steps back from major international climate platforms such as the UNFCCC, IPCC, and the Green Climate Fund. This turn toward isolationism described as the “Great Retreat” weakens the idea of climate justice by allowing the world’s biggest historical polluter to evade its long-standing responsibilities.

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Implications of the US Retreat for the Global South

• Climate Finance Deficit: The withdrawal leaves a massive funding gap in the GCF and Adaptation Fund, depriving developing nations of essential capital for resilient infrastructure.
  Eg: The US administration recently cancelled nearly $4 billion in pledged GCF funding.
• Technological Stagnation: The exit from agencies like IRENA disrupts the transfer of clean-tech innovations (green hydrogen, battery storage) from the North to the South.
• Weakening of Science: The absence of US contributions to the IPCC could lead to less comprehensive scientific assessments, particularly in data-poor regions of the Global South.
• Increased Adaptation Vulnerability: Vulnerable nations face heightened risks from floods and droughts without the predictable support of US-backed meteorological and disaster-alert systems.
• Normative Backsliding: The US exit sets a dangerous precedent, potentially encouraging other developed nations to dilute their commitments or “forum shop” for less rigorous treaties.
• Economic Strain: A crumbling multilateral support system raises borrowing costs for green projects in developing economies as private investors perceive higher risks.
  

Leveraging the Disruption: India’s Path to Leadership

• Championing Equity (CBDR): India can use this vacuum to re-center Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), ensuring the Global North continues to bear the burden of historical emissions.
  Eg: At COP30, India and other developing nations successfully resisted attempts to overturn the Paris Pact’s architecture despite US pressure.
• South-South Cooperation: India can strengthen the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) as credible alternatives to US-led platforms.
  Eg: India remains the primary driver of the ISA, which has mobilized solar projects across 100+ tropical countries despite the US exit.
• Strategic Diversification: India can pivot toward an India-EU climate axis, deepening partnerships with the European Union, Japan, and Brazil to fill the technological and financial void.
  Eg: India is increasingly looking toward trilateral forums and BRICS climate agreements to sustain its $500 billion green investment pipeline.
• Domestic Self-Reliance: By upscaling its “Green Budget”, India can demonstrate a viable model of self-funded energy transition for other middle-income countries.
  Eg: India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes for electrolysers and EVs highlight its intent to build a domestic green industry.
• Stabilizing Force: India’s cross-party consensus on climate goals allows it to act as a “stabilizing force” in negotiations, contrasting with the “oscillating” policies of the US.
  Eg: India reached nearly 50% of electricity production by non -fossil by 2025(5 years ahead of 2030 target, lending it moral credibility to lead the “Axis of Good” in climate diplomacy.
• Reformist Agenda: India can lead the push for Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) reforms to create new, US-independent channels for climate finance and adaptation.
  Eg: India has consistently advocated for MDBs to expand concessional lending and green bonds as primary vehicles for climate action.

Conclusion

The US withdrawal is a “colossal own-goal” that reshapes the global order, but it also provides a historic opening for India. By building a “Climate-G-77” and institutionalizing “South-South” technical sharing, India can ensure that global climate governance is no longer vulnerable to the whims of a single hegemon. The path forward lies in a genuinely multipolar, equity-driven response that safeguards the planet while preserving the developmental rights of the Global South.

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