Exploring Population Change through Births, Deaths, and Migrations

Population of a region or country is a dynamic phenomenon. Its numbers, distribution and composition undergo continuous changing. This is the influence of the interaction of the three processes, namely — births, deaths and migrations, and the intricate dynamics of population change. These factors collectively govern and mold the demography of a region or country.

Growth Rates, Patterns, and Global Dynamics

• Definition: Growth of population refers to the change in number of people in an area over time, with its rate expressed in percentage.
  • Example: For India, both decadal and annual growth rates are high.

The Magnitude and Rate of India’s Population Growth 

• This growth can be measured in two ways:
  • Absolute Increase: This is calculated by subtracting the earlier population figure from the later one.
    • After 1981, the growth rate of India’s population began to decline, though the absolute number of people added remained significant.
  • Annual Growth Rate: This is the percentage increase each year (Refer to Figure).
    • Annual population growth rate of India as per the census 2011 was 1.64%.

 India’s Population Growth Rates during 1951-2011

• India’s Growth Patterns:
  • From 1951 to 1981, there was a rapid increase in India’s population due to a steadily increasing annual growth rate. 

India’s Population 1901-2011 

• • An important prediction suggests that India might overtake China by 2045 to become the world’s most populous country, highlighting a significant aspect of global population change. (According to the United Nations data, India has surpassed China to become world’s most populous nation with 142.86 crore people in April 2023)
• Global Patterns :
  • Population growth rates vary globally. 
    • Some nations, like Kenya, experience high growth rates due to decreasing death rates and high birth rates.
    • Others, like the UK, have slowing growth rates due to both low birth and death rates.

World: Differing rates of Population Growth

Population Changes Over Time: A Journey from 1 Billion to 8 Billion

• Definition: The population change refers to change in the number of people during a specific time. 
  • The world population has not been stable. 
  • It has increased manifold due to changes in the number of births and deaths
  • In 1804, the world’s population reached one billion. 
  • In 1959, the world’s population reached 3 billion.
    • This is often called population explosion. 
• In 1999, 40 years later, the population doubled to 6 billion. 
  • • The main reason for this growth was that with better food supplies and medicine, the death rate was reduced while the number of births still remained fairly high.
• In 2011, the world’s population reached 7 billion and in Nov 2022 it increased to 8 billion.

Components of Population Change: Examining Births, Deaths, and Migration Dynamics

• Natural Component:
  • The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) represents the number of live births per thousand in a year. 
    • Formula: CBR = Bi/P×1000. 
    • Here, CBR = Crude Birth Rate; Bi = live births during the year; P= Mid-year population of the area. 
  • Death Rate has a significant influence on population change.
    • Assessing Growth via Death Rate: Population growth can be attributed to a decreased death rate.
    • Defining Crude Death Rate (CDR): It indicates the number of deaths per thousand in a year.
    • Formula: CDR = D/P×1000. 
    • Here, CDR=Crude Death Rate; D= Number of deaths; P=Estimated mid-year population of that year. 
• Induced Component:
  • The Role of Migration: It’s the act of changing residence from one place (Origin) to another (Destination). 
  • Nature: Migration can be permanent, temporary, or seasonal.
  • Migration is an important determinant of population change.
    • It changes population size and also the population composition.
    • Example:  The rural-urban migration has resulted in a steady increase in the percentage of population in cities and towns. 
    • Immigration: The process of people moving into a place. 
    • Emigration: The process of people moving out of a place.

• • Reasons behind Migration:
    • Push Factors: They make the original place less appealing due to factors like unemployment, poor living conditions, and natural disasters.
    • Pull Factors: They make a destination more appealing due to factors like better job opportunities and a stable environment.

Also Read: India’s Population Growth: Historical Phases and Contemporary Trends

Conclusion
The study of population geography elucidates the complexities of population change, involving births, deaths, and migration. From growth rates to natural and actual growth, these concepts provide insights into the dynamic nature of population dynamics, shaping the evolving landscape of demographic patterns. Population change serves as a pivotal lens through which we understand the continual shifts in population size, composition, and distribution, reflecting the intricate interplay of various factors on a global scale.

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