Answer

India’s evolving relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) have gained prominence due to their strategic importance in regional security, energy resources, and connectivity projects. India, being a rising power, seeks to enhance its footprint in such regions. Like re-emerging views on TAPI pipeline and INSTC for regional integration.

India’s evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs)

Diplomatic Relations

• Strategic Partnerships: To bolster defence cooperation, counter-terrorism efforts, and regional stability, aligning its interests with their security needs.
  For example: India’s military base in Tajikistan underscores its commitment to securing its regional interests, particularly concerning Afghanistan.
• Cultural Diplomacy: Through soft diplomacy, India fosters long-term relations with CARs by promoting cultural exchange programs, educational initiatives, and people-to-people ties.
• Regional Cooperation: India actively engages with CARs through multilateral forums like the SCO, focusing on regional security and cooperation, especially against terrorism and extremism.
  For example: India’s participation in SCO-RATS allows it to collaborate on anti-terrorism initiatives critical to securing Central Asia and India’s security interests.

Economic Relations

• Energy Security: CARs are vital to India’s energy security, providing opportunities to diversify natural gas, oil, and uranium sources.
  For example: India imports uranium from Kazakhstan and is exploring the TAPI pipeline for natural gas to reduce reliance on traditional energy suppliers.
• Trade and Investment: Despite the relatively low trade volume, India is working to boost bilateral trade with CARs by encouraging investments in pharmaceuticals, IT, and other sectors.
  For example: India’s trade with Central Asia is currently around $2 billion per year, highlighting the growth potential in their economic relations.
• Connectivity Projects: India aims to enhance regional connectivity with CARs through infrastructure projects like the INSTC, promoting trade, reducing costs, and increasing mutual economic benefits.

Strategic Relations

• Afghanistan Factor: CARs are crucial to India’s security strategy, especially after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, as regional instability threatens India’s security and economic interests.
• Counterbalancing China: India seeks to counterbalance China’s growing influence in CARs by offering alternatives through development projects, defence cooperation, and economic engagement, positioning itself as a regional partner.
  For example: India’s push for greater infrastructure investment and trade in CARs offers an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Defence Cooperation: India is deepening its defence cooperation with CARs through joint military exercises, training programs, and defence equipment support.
  For example: Joint military exercises like Dustlik with Uzbekistan focus on counterterrorism operations, strengthening India’s defence ties with CARs.

Challenges in India-CAR Relations

• Limited Connectivity: India’s engagement with CARs is hindered by lack of direct access, making it dependent on infrastructure projects like Chabahar Port and INSTC to ensure reliable connectivity.
  For example: The Chabahar-Zahedan railway project faces delays, limiting India’s ability to access Central Asian markets efficiently.
• Terrorism and Instability: The instability in Afghanistan and the presence of terrorist groups in CARs create security risks, complicating India’s strategic engagement and its efforts to ensure regional peace and security.
  For example: Terrorist networks linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda pose a threat to the stability of CARs and by extension, to India’s regional interests.
• Economic Barriers: Despite efforts to increase trade, non-tariff barriers and logistical challenges hamper India’s economic relations with CARs.
  For example: Trade between India and CARs remains modest, while in 2023, China’s trade with Central Asian countries surged to $89.4 billion.
• Energy Competition: India faces stiff competition from China and Russia for securing long-term access to CAR energy resources, which limits its influence in the energy sector and delays critical projects like the TAPI pipeline.
• Political Uncertainty: The internal political instability makes it difficult for India to develop long-term diplomatic strategies and partnerships.
  For example: The political unrest in Kazakhstan in 2022 highlighted the fragility of these governments, complicating India’s diplomatic engagement.\

Way Ahead

• Strategic Energy Partnerships: India should accelerate negotiations for securing long-term energy agreements with CARs, especially to ensure energy security for its growing needs.
  For example: Faster completion of TAPI pipeline remains crucial for India’s gas supply diversification and energy independence.
• Enhancing Cultural Diplomacy: India needs to expand its cultural diplomacy in CARs to build stronger people-to-people ties.
  For example: Establishing more Indian Cultural Centers in major CAR cities can help solidify India’s cultural presence in the region.
• Expanding Defence Cooperation: India should deepen its military cooperation with CARs by conducting more joint exercises and enhancing counterterrorism capabilities.
  For example: India’s participation in joint counterterrorism drills like Khanjar with Kyrgyzstan.
• Multilateral Engagement: India must continue to play an active role in regional forums like the SCO, enhancing its influence and countering China’s growing presence.
• Counterterrorism Cooperation: India needs to strengthen counterterrorism collaborations with CARs, focusing on intelligence-sharing and joint security operations to combat growing extremist threats in the region.

India’s engagement with the Central Asian Republics offers great potential to enhance strategic, economic, and defence partnerships, strengthening ties that will boost regional security and development. As India’s present Prime Minister stated, “Central Asia is at the heart of India’s vision of an integrated and stable extended neighbourhood” underscoring India’s vision for deeper integration with Central Asia.

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