Initially, a historic hurricane season was predicted in 2024 due to a strong La Niña. However, there were no major hurricanes during the summer.

• La Niña did not develop as strongly as expected, and forecasts have been downgraded.

2023 Hurricane Season and Record Warming

• 2023 Season: Despite a strong El Niño, the 2023 hurricane season was the fourth most active in history. Typically, El Niño reduces hurricanes, while La Niña increases them.
• Uncertainty: Meteorologists are unsure if global warming has affected the connection between hurricanes and El Niño/La Niña.

About Cyclone Forecasting models

• These are computer programs that use meteorological data to forecast the future state of tropical cyclones. 
• Types of cyclone forecasting models
  • Statisticals Models: It uses historical data to predict the future state of cyclones. 
  • Dynamical Models: It uses math equations and meteorological data to predict cyclone behavior. 
  • Combined Statistical – Dynamical Models: This model combines both statistical and dynamical approach to forecast cyclone behavior. 

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Cyclone Forecasting Challenges

• Accuracy: Cyclone forecasts have improved in predicting landfall but still struggle with forecasting cyclone intensity.
• Post-Landfall: Forecasters have difficulty predicting the damage caused by cyclones after landfall, such as rain and strong winds, which lead to significant destruction.
• Cyclones and Climate Change
  • Cyclone Numbers: While the total number of cyclones hasn’t increased globally, the number of strong cyclones has gone up.
  • Warming Oceans: Cyclones get their energy from warm ocean waters, and rising sea temperatures are making cyclones intensify quickly, a phenomenon that is hard to predict.
• North Indian Ocean Cyclones
  • Trend: The number of cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea, has been rising, but predictions about their seasonal activity remain difficult.

India’s Progress and Vulnerabilities

Good News: Forecasting Improvements

• Advances in Forecasting: India has improved its cyclone forecasts, and its disaster management has helped reduce the loss of lives during cyclones.
• Cyclone Size: Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, tend to be smaller and less intense compared to other regions.
• Bad News: Climate Stressors
  • Chronic Stressors: Long-term climate issues like rising sea levels, warming temperatures, and extreme rainfall patterns are increasing.
  • Acute Stressors: Events like cyclones, heatwaves, and flash droughts are becoming more severe, making the effects of chronic stressors worse. 
    • For example, rising sea levels increase the risk of flooding from cyclones.
• Tamil Nadu Example
  • Heavy Rain and Flooding: Tamil Nadu has been experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding yearly due to warmer ocean temperatures, extending the monsoon seasons.

Importance of Weather Forecasting in India

• Agriculture and Food Security
  • India’s agriculture depends heavily on the monsoon, which provides 70-80% of the annual rainfall. 
    • Accurate weather forecasts help farmers plan activities like sowing, irrigation, harvesting, managing crops, and controlling pests and diseases.
• Disaster Management
  • India is vulnerable to disasters like cyclones, floods, heatwaves, and droughts. 
    • Weather forecasting helps reduce the damage caused by these events by enabling better disaster planning and response.
• Reducing Economic Losses
  • Agriculture: Weather events like droughts and poor monsoons can damage crops and cause financial losses for farmers. Accurate forecasts help minimize these losses.
  • Energy Sector: Weather affects energy sources like hydropower and solar power. Forecasts help in efficient management, ensuring steady energy supply and reducing financial losses.
• Construction and Urban Planning
  • Weather forecasts are important for scheduling construction projects, especially during the monsoon and winter. They help avoid delays, ensure worker safety, and reduce costs.
• Transport and Logistics
  • Accurate weather predictions are key for safe and efficient transportation by road, rail, and sea. For example, fog forecasts in winter help manage flight schedules and prevent accidents. 
• Public Health and Safety
  • Weather forecasts improve public health and safety. For example, warnings of extreme temperatures help prevent heat-related illnesses like heat stroke.
• Water Resource Management
  • Forecasts are important for managing water resources, such as planning irrigation and controlling water levels in reservoirs.

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Way Forward

• Hyperlocal Risk Mapping
  • Need for Better Predictions: India needs better predictions for cyclone intensity, landfall, and post-landfall effects.
  • Hyperlocal Planning: Creating detailed risk maps for specific areas can help India prepare better, as it is expensive to cover all regions for cyclone risks.
• Economic Development and National Security
  • Climate and National Security: India’s climate vulnerabilities are also national security issues. 
    • India’s climate vulnerabilities are intrinsically linked to national security issues, as they can lead to social unrest, resource conflicts, and economic instability. 
• Solutions
  • Regional Climate Networks: India should build weather and climate networks that include its neighboring countries to improve predictions and manage climate risks in the region.

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