A China Led Trilateral Nexus As India’s New Challenge

China is aggressively expanding its geopolitical influence by fostering new trilateral and bilateral alliances, aiming to encircle India, assert Chinese dominance, and gain access to critical resources and strategic locations.

Key China-Led Initiatives

• China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Nexus: China, Pakistan and Bangladesh held their first trilateral meeting in Kunming, China.
  • This is viewed as a security threat to India’s “Chicken Neck” region if Bangladesh aligns more closely with China. 
  • China has already made substantial investments in Bangladeshi ports, including Chittagong and Payra.
• China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Nexus: China plans to extend CPEC into Afghanistan.
  • China’s interest in Afghanistan is primarily driven by the nation’s nearly $1 trillion in estimated mineral resources. 
• Deepening China-Pakistan Ties: China is Pakistan’s primary arms supplier, providing 80% of its weaponry, including J-10C fighter jets. 
  • China has committed approximately $50 billion to CPEC, with $29 billion already invested. 
  • China also protects Pakistani individuals designated as terrorists by the UN, such as Masood Azhar, even while participating in counter-terrorism mechanisms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). This demonstrates a double standard in its approach to terrorism.
• “China Pakistan Plus One” Strategy: This strategy aims to incorporate countries like Afghanistan or Bangladesh into China’s strategic orbit, amplifying the geopolitical challenges for India.
• Broader Regional Influence: 
  • Sri Lanka: China exerts significant influence, having acquired the Hambantota Port on a 99-year lease.
  • Maldives: China is actively attempting to establish a military base in the Maldives, indicating its desire for increased Indian Ocean presence.
  • Nepal: China is increasing its influence within Nepal’s political parties and pushing for infrastructure projects like the Trans-Himalayan Railway.
  • Iran: China has a $400 billion deal with Iran for oil supply over 25 years and is discussing projects such as the Gwadar-Chabahar link and a Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline.
  • Indus Water Treaty: China has attempted to exert pressure on India concerning the Indus Water Treaty, despite having no water-sharing agreement with India for the Brahmaputra River, highlighting its coercive tactics.

Implications for Indian Geopolitics

• Geopolitical Encirclement: The expansion of Chinese influence in India’s immediate neighborhood, from Pakistan in the west to Bangladesh in the east, and including Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Nepal, creates a strategic encirclement, limiting India’s regional maneuverability.
• Enhanced Security Threats: The potential alignment of Bangladesh with China, combined with Pakistan’s strong ties, could lead to a two-front security challenge for India, particularly threatening the vulnerable “Chicken Neck” region. 
  • An increase in Pakistan-backed terrorist activities, facilitated by Afghanistan, poses an ongoing security risk.
• Regional Dominance Shift: China aims to reconfigure the regional power balance, making Pakistan a more relevant player and diminishing India’s historical influence in its own neighborhood.
• Challenge to Strategic Autonomy: India’s participation in multilateral forums like the SCO is carefully managed to preserve its strategic autonomy. 
  • India’s recent refusal to sign the SCO Defence Ministers’ draft statement, due to its selective and one-sided approach to terrorism that omitted the Pahalgam attack in India while mentioning a Pakistani incident, underscores its unwavering zero-tolerance policy against terrorism. 
  • This firm stance, declaring that “terror and talks cannot go together,” demonstrates India’s commitment to isolating terror sponsors and refusing to compromise on national security, even if it means no joint statement from the SCO.

India’s Counter-Strategy

• Strengthening Multilateral and Bilateral Partnerships: India actively engages with frameworks like the Quad (United States, Australia, Japan) and I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, United States) to balance regional power dynamics.
• Focus on Indo-Pacific: India prioritizes its role in the Indo-Pacific region, seeking to ensure a free, open, and inclusive regional order.
• Military Modernization: India is bolstering its military capabilities, including the deployment of S-400 air defense systems at its borders, development of aircraft carriers, coastal surveillance radars, and advanced air defense systems.
• Alternative Connectivity Initiatives: India counters China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and CPEC with its own connectivity projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Sagar Initiative (Security and Growth for All in the Region).
• Strategic Access: India is developing strategic partnerships, such as with the Duqm Port in Oman, to enhance its maritime presence and counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.
• Economic Strengthening: Efforts are underway to strengthen the Indian Rupee, signifying a broader economic push to enhance national resilience.
• Pragmatic Engagement with Neighbors: India recognizes the need for pragmatic engagement with South Asian countries like Afghanistan (including the Taliban) and Bangladesh, despite past frictions, to prevent Pakistan from leveraging them for anti-India activities and to maintain regional stability. This approach aims to break the “string of pearls” strategy and ensure India’s continued relevance in its neighborhood.

Conclusion

India’s robust and balanced approach, combining strategic partnerships, military preparedness, economic initiatives, and diplomatic resolve, is crucial to safeguarding its interests and maintaining regional stability.