GS III: Major crops-cropping patterns in various parts of the country; Environmental pollution and degradation.
Context: Increasing climate variability has made the Indian Monsoon more erratic, with delayed rainfall, intense precipitation, prolonged dry spells and rising frequency of extreme weather events. The article highlights that agricultural planning must shift from national averages to decentralised climate-resilient strategies to safeguard food security and farmers’ livelihoods.
Why is Indian Agriculture Becoming More Vulnerable?
- Monsoon Dependence: Indian agriculture remains highly dependent on the Southwest Monsoon, but climate change has altered rainfall patterns, resulting in delayed monsoon onset, cloudbursts, flash floods, prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution, thereby increasing production risks and reducing farm resilience.
- Changing Rainfall Patterns: The increasing frequency of extreme weather events has disrupted traditional cropping practices, making agricultural planning and input management more uncertain.
- Declining Climate Resilience: Greater climatic uncertainty has increased the vulnerability of farmers to crop losses, income instability and resource degradation.
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What is Erratic Monsoon?
- Definition: An erratic monsoon refers to unpredictable rainfall distribution across time and geographical regions, where some areas receive excessive rainfall while neighbouring districts experience rainfall deficits, making agricultural planning increasingly uncertain.
How has Monsoon Variability Changed?
- Spatial Variability: Rainfall distribution now varies significantly across districts and tehsils, with neighbouring regions experiencing contrasting rainfall conditions. The Indo-Gangetic Plains, including parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, have recorded persistent rainfall deficits despite overall national rainfall remaining near normal.
- Temporal Variability: The monsoon is increasingly characterised by short-duration heavy rainfall followed by prolonged dry spells, reducing groundwater recharge, increasing surface runoff and causing greater crop damage.
Why can National Rainfall Data be Misleading?
- Masking Local Distress: Aggregate rainfall statistics may classify the monsoon as normal, but such averages often conceal severe local climatic stress, where floods and droughts occur simultaneously across different regions.
- Need for Local Assessment: District and tehsil-level rainfall analysis provides a more realistic assessment of agricultural risks than national rainfall averages.
What is the Scientific Basis of Increasing Monsoon Extremes?
- Indian Ocean Warming: According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, the Indian Ocean warmed by nearly 1°C during 1951–2015, compared to the global average warming of about 0.7°C.
- Higher Atmospheric Moisture: Rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increases evaporation, enabling the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which is subsequently released through intense rainfall events instead of evenly distributed seasonal precipitation.
What is the Impact on Agriculture?
- Crop Productivity: Increasing monsoon variability disrupts sowing schedules, lowers crop productivity and increases the risk of crop failure.
- Water Resources: Extreme rainfall increases surface runoff while reducing groundwater recharge, aggravating water scarcity during dry spells.
- Land Degradation: Heavy rainfall accelerates topsoil erosion, reducing soil fertility and agricultural productivity.
- Farmer Livelihoods: Frequent floods and droughts increase production uncertainty, income instability and farmers’ economic vulnerability.
Key Findings of the CEEW Report (1982–2022)
- Increase in Extreme Rainfall: Around 64% of tehsils experienced an increase in extreme rainfall events.
- Persistent Rainfall Deficit: About 11% of tehsils, mainly in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, recorded rainfall deficits exceeding 10% during the past decade.
- Increase in Dry Spells: The frequency of dry spells increased by 27%, despite India recording only three deficit monsoon years and eight excess rainfall years over four decades.
- Regional Disparities: The findings highlight that national rainfall averages often conceal persistent local climatic stress and growing regional disparities.
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How can Agriculture be Weather-Proofed?
- Decentralised Agro-Climatic Planning: Agricultural planning should shift from national averages to district and tehsil-level planning through Agro-Climatic Zone-based crop calendars and location-specific farming strategies.
- Contingency Crop Planning: States should prepare alternative cropping calendars before every monsoon season and promote drought-tolerant crops such as bajra, ragi and jowar whenever the monsoon onset is delayed.
- Village Seed Banks: Establishing Village Seed Banks (Beej Banks) with climate-resilient crop varieties can facilitate immediate re-sowing after crop failure and minimise production losses.
- Improved Water Management: Expanding farm ponds (Khet Talab), restoring traditional water bodies through pond desilting, and promoting rainwater harvesting can improve water availability during prolonged dry periods.
- Strengthening Agrometeorological Advisory Services: Farmers should receive real-time weather forecasts, crop advisories and scientific recommendations through digital platforms to support timely sowing, irrigation and harvesting decisions.
- Climate-Resilient Crop Research: Greater investment in flood-tolerant and drought-resistant crop varieties, supported by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and State Agricultural Universities, is essential for improving long-term agricultural resilience.
- Risk Mitigation: Expanding crop insurance, weather-indexed insurance products and timely compensation mechanisms can reduce farmers’ financial vulnerability arising from climate-induced crop losses.
Government Initiatives Supporting Climate-Resilient Agriculture
- National Innovations on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA): Implemented by ICAR, the programme develops and demonstrates climate-resilient agricultural technologies to enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity.
- Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY): Promotes efficient irrigation, micro-irrigation and improved water-use efficiency to enhance agricultural resilience.
- Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): Provides crop insurance against natural calamities and weather-related risks, reducing income uncertainty for farmers.
- Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS): Delivers location-specific weather forecasts and agrometeorological advisories to support scientific farm decision-making.
Way Forward
- Localised Climate Planning: Agricultural planning should be based on district and tehsil-level climate assessments rather than national rainfall averages.
- Strengthening Weather Services: Expanding weather forecasting, early warning systems and digital advisory platforms can enable timely agricultural decisions.
- Enhancing Water Security: Greater investment in rainwater harvesting, watershed development, groundwater recharge and decentralised irrigation infrastructure is essential.
- Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture: Wider adoption of climate-resilient crops, resource-efficient farming practices and precision agriculture can strengthen long-term resilience.
- Strengthening Research & Extension: Continuous investment in climate-resilient technologies, farmer awareness and extension services is necessary to enhance adaptive capacity.
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Conclusion
As climate change makes the Indian Monsoon increasingly unpredictable, India’s agricultural strategy must shift from reactive disaster management to proactive climate resilience through decentralised planning, scientific advisories and sustainable resource management, ensuring food security, higher farm incomes and long-term agricultural sustainability.
1 Aug 2026
