GS II: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Context: The article argues that the global balance of power is undergoing a significant transformation. The United States is gradually shifting its strategy from containing China to accommodating China’s rise, creating new geopolitical challenges for India.
Thucydides Trap
Definition
The concept of Thucydides Trap, proposed by political scientist Graham Allison, explains that:
When a rising power challenges an established ruling power, conflict between them becomes highly likely.
Example
- Rising Power → China
- Existing Superpower → United States
Traditionally, this theory suggested that a US-China confrontation was almost inevitable.
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Shift in the US Strategy Towards China
The article argues that the US is gradually moving away from a strategy of containment to one of strategic accommodation.
Shift in US Approach Towards China
Earlier Approach
- Contain China’s Rise: Sought to prevent China’s emergence as a dominant global power.
- Counter Chinese Expansion: Focused on limiting China’s growing military, economic, and technological influence.
- Alliance-Based Strategy: Strengthened partnerships and alliances to balance China’s regional and global ambitions.
Emerging Approach
- Accept China’s Permanent Role: Recognizes China as an enduring major power in the international system.
- Coexistence over Confrontation: Emphasizes managing differences while avoiding direct conflict.
- Manage Strategic Competition: Focuses on responsible competition and risk management rather than attempting to defeat or isolate China.
Why is the US Changing its Strategy?
- High Cost of the Ukraine War: The Russia–Ukraine conflict imposed enormous financial and strategic costs on the US.
- As a result,
- The US now expects European countries to increase defence spending.
- NATO members are being encouraged to shoulder greater security responsibilities.
- Costs of the Iran Conflict: The conflict involving Iran exposed vulnerabilities in America’s regional security commitments.
Consequences
- US military bases in West Asia became targets.
- Security guarantees provided to Gulf partners appeared less credible.
- Regional confidence in American protection weakened.
As a result, countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE are increasingly diversifying their strategic partnerships and strengthening ties with China.
Indo-Pacific Reality
- Strategic Partnerships: The US has established groupings such as the QUAD and AUKUS to promote security and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
- Economic Constraints: However, the effectiveness of these initiatives is constrained by the region’s deep economic interdependence with China.
Why?
Most member countries have:
- China as their largest trading partner.
- Strong dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
- Deep supply-chain linkages with China.
Therefore,
These countries are unlikely to completely confront China because doing so would involve significant economic costs.
Evidence of Changing Priorities
The article notes that:
- Some countries are reluctant to sacrifice economic interests for US strategic goals.
- Economic interdependence is limiting the formation of a rigid anti-China bloc.
Changing US Perception of India
- India as a Strategic Pillar: For over two decades, the US viewed India as the central pillar of its Indo-Pacific strategy.
- Balancing China’s Rise: India’s growing economic and strategic capabilities were expected to help balance China’s expanding influence in Asia.
- Strategic Partnership: The US strengthened defence, technology, and economic ties with India to promote a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific.
- Changing Perception: The article argues that Washington is gradually reassessing India’s role due to evolving geopolitical priorities and differing strategic expectations.
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Current US View of India
- Economic Partner: The US increasingly views India as a major consumer market and a key economic partner.
- Reduced Strategic Centrality: India is seen less as an indispensable strategic ally for balancing China’s rise.
- Focus on Trade and Technology: Greater emphasis is being placed on economic cooperation, investment, and technology partnerships.
Concerns for India
- Alignment of Economic Priorities: Recent US policy positions indicate expectations that India’s economic policies should increasingly align with US strategic and commercial interests.
- Pressure on Strategic Autonomy: Such expectations may constrain India’s ability to pursue an independent, issue-based foreign policy.
- Challenge to Independent Decision-Making: India faces the task of deepening cooperation with the US while preserving its strategic autonomy and national interests.
China’s Expanding Influence Around India
China continues to strengthen its regional presence through:
String of Pearls Strategy
China is developing:
- Ports
- Infrastructure
- Connectivity projects
across India’s maritime neighbourhood.
Examples
- China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
- Hambantota Port (Sri Lanka)
- Colombo Port City
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Nepal, Bangladesh and the Maldives
These projects enhance China’s long-term strategic influence in South Asia.
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Expanding US Presence in South Asia
Traditionally,
South Asia was regarded as India’s natural sphere of influence.
However,
The US is now increasing engagement with:
- Bangladesh
- Sri Lanka
- Nepal
- Maldives
through:
- Defence cooperation
- Digital partnerships
- Infrastructure investments
This introduces another external power into India’s immediate neighbourhood.
Declining Indian Leverage
India’s influence over neighbouring countries is becoming relatively weaker because these countries now possess multiple strategic options.
Earlier:
Neighbouring countries balanced mainly between:
Now they can also leverage:
As a result,
India’s bargaining power has reduced.
Pakistan as a Swing State
The article describes Pakistan as a swing state.
Characteristics
Pakistan simultaneously maintains relations with:
- China
- United States
- Saudi Arabia
- Qatar
- Türkiye
- Iran
This multi-alignment increases Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance.
India’s Position in South Asia
Although India’s trade with neighbouring countries has expanded,
this has not automatically translated into greater political influence.
Example
SAARC remains largely ineffective because of persistent India–Pakistan tensions.
Way Forward
- Strengthen Economic Fundamentals: Build a resilient and innovation-driven economy to enhance India’s long-term strategic power.
- Reduce Dependence on China: Diversify supply chains, technology, and critical imports to strengthen strategic resilience.
- Preserve Strategic Autonomy: Follow an issue-based foreign policy that safeguards India’s independent decision-making.
- Deepen Neighbourhood Engagement: Strengthen regional influence through connectivity, timely project delivery, and trusted development partnerships.
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Conclusion
India should avoid viewing global politics through the lens of great-power rivalry alone. Instead, it must strengthen its domestic economic capabilities, preserve strategic autonomy, deepen engagement with neighbouring countries, and pursue a balanced, multi-aligned foreign policy to safeguard its national interests in an increasingly multipolar world.
Key Terms:
- Thucydides Trap: A situation where the rise of a new power creates fear in an existing dominant power, increasing the risk of conflict.
- Strategic Accommodation: A policy of cooperating or adjusting relations with another major power to avoid conflict while safeguarding national interests.
- Strategic Competition: Long-term rivalry among major powers for economic, military, technological, and geopolitical influence without direct war.
- Indo-Pacific: A strategic region extending from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, central to global trade, maritime security, and geopolitical competition.
- Strategic Autonomy: India’s ability to pursue an independent foreign policy based on national interests without permanent military alliances.
- Multipolarity: An international order where power is distributed among multiple major powers rather than being dominated by one or two states.
- String of Pearls: A term describing China’s network of ports and strategic facilities across the Indian Ocean to expand its maritime influence.
- Sphere of Influence: A region where a powerful country exercises predominant political, economic, or military influence over other states.
- Transactional Diplomacy: A foreign policy approach driven by immediate national interests and reciprocal benefits rather than ideology or long-term alliances.
- Supply Chain Resilience: The ability to diversify and secure production and trade networks to withstand geopolitical, economic, or natural disruptions.
- Comprehensive National Power (CNP): The combined strength of a nation based on its economic, military, technological, diplomatic, demographic, and institutional capabilities.
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3 Jul 2026
