Recently, 18 people were killed in a stampede at the New Delhi Railway Station which happened following a surge in the crowd of passengers waiting to board trains for Prayagraj. 

About Stampede

• Definition: Wenguo Weng et al. (2023) define a stampede as an impulsive mass movement of a crowd, often leading to injuries and deaths.
  • Illiyas et al. describe stampedes as a surge in a crowd triggered by perceived danger or loss of space, disrupting orderly movement and causing panic-driven injuries and fatalities.
• Safety Concern: Stampedes have high mortality rates, making them one of the leading causes of death at mass gatherings. Along with heat-related illnesses, stampedes pose significant risks at large public events, religious gatherings, and festivals.

Factors leading to stampedes

• Ineffective Crowd Management : Effective crowd management is essential for ensuring safety during mass gatherings.
  • Poor planning, lack of understanding of crowd behavior, and insufficient coordination among stakeholders contribute to the occurrence of stampedes.
• Psychological Factors: Human psychology plays a key role in triggering stampedes, with panic often exacerbating the situation.
  • Alexander Mintz (1952) theorized that in panic-induced scenarios, cooperative behavior is necessary for success. However, once this cooperation breaks down, chaos ensues, worsening the situation.
• Theory of “Craze”: Sociologist Neil J. Smelser introduced the concept of a “craze” in his work Theory of Collective Behaviour (1962), describing it as “mobilisation for action based on a positive wish-fulfilment belief”. 
  • These beliefs, whether rational or irrational, spread through large crowds, influencing individuals to act in ways that ultimately harm their interests.
  • In large group settings, the irrational collective beliefs of a “craze” can trigger dangerous actions, leading to a stampede.
  • For example, in the Hathras incident, the desire to touch a preacher’s feet or collect soil triggered a deadly stampede.
• Structural Factors: Structural issues in the environment or venue play a significant role in crowd-related disasters. Chun-Hao Shao et al. (2018) outlined several key factors contributing to stampedes:
  • Lack of lighting
  • Improper crowd flow management
  • Collapsed barriers or buildings
  • Blocked exits or evacuation routes
  • Poor hardware design, such as revolving doors at entrances
  • Fire hazards
• High Crowd Density:  Crowd density, or the number of people per unit area, is a critical factor in designing spaces for mass gatherings.
  • High crowd density can cause panic, especially when crowd management strategies are insufficient. 
  • Overcrowding in a confined space increases the risk of dangerous situations, including stampedes.
• Simulation on Crowd Density: A simulation by Chun-Hao Shao et al. showed that when crowd density reaches 3 to 4 persons per square meter, evacuation times increase significantly.
  • In these conditions, evacuees often spend over 8 minutes waiting for evacuation, and when blocked near exits, panic increases, escalating the stampede risk.

National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Guidelines on Crowd Management

• About: Recognizing the recurring issue of stampedes at mass gatherings, the NDMA has developed guidelines for effective crowd management.
• Involvement: These guidelines are aimed at assisting all stakeholders, including:
  • State governments
  • Local authorities
  • Event organizers and administrators
• Objective : The primary goal of the NDMA guidelines is to provide a framework for proactive crowd management, ensuring that proper safety measures are in place to prevent disasters such as stampedes.

Guidelines

•  Capacity Planning
  • Visitor Monitoring: Implement methods to count and monitor visitors passing through key points to manage crowd flow.
  • Staging Points: Designate physical or virtual locations where visitors must pass through to enhance control.
  • Facilities : Provide essential services such as resting areas, water, food, and hygiene facilities.
  • Encourage Multiple Routes: Design multiple pathways to distribute crowds, reducing congestion and enhancing movement.
• Crowd Control
  • Inflow Management: Control the rate at which people enter the venue.
  • Regulate Movement: Manage how people move within the venue to prevent bottlenecks.
  • Outflow Management: Plan for crowd movement post-event, ensuring safe and orderly exit procedures.
• Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA)
  • Strategic Planning: Transition from traditional crowd control to an effective crowd management approach by conducting HRVA at all levels, from the event venue to district and state disaster management plans.
  • Phases of HRVA: Focus on response, recovery, and mitigation to prepare for any severe incident.
  • Decision Support System: Use HRVA data to create a system that enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of rescue and relief operations in the event of crowd-related disasters.
    • Identifying Threats and Causes: Recognize potential risks using available information on gathering places.
    • Risk Assessment and Planning: After identifying threats, conduct a detailed risk assessment for appropriate planning.
• Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
  • Hazard Rating: Implement FMEA by rating each potential hazard on:
    • Severity (impact of the event)
    • Frequency of Occurrence (how often it is likely to happen)
    • Difficulty of Detection (how easily it can be identified).
  • The Risk Priority Number (RPN) is derived from these ratings, with higher severity, frequency, and difficulty leading to a higher RPN.
  • Based on the RPN, planners should take preventative actions to minimize the risk.

Key Measures for Crowd Management

• Stampede Risk-Reduction Framework
  • Inter-agency Coordination: A multi-disciplinary approach involving law enforcement, local authorities, event organizers, and emergency services.
  • Hazard Identification: Identifying risk factors like restricted spaces, narrow exits, and overcrowding.
  • Mitigation Strategies: Implementing safety measures such as barriers, crowd flow management, and emergency response planning.
• Better Design of Spaces
  • Sufficient Exits: Ensure an adequate number of well-marked exits to facilitate smooth movement.
  • Wide Pathways: Create broader pathways to allow for crowd dispersal.
  • Separate Entry and Exit Points: To reduce congestion and minimize stampede risks.
• Live Surveillance of the Crowd
  • Real-time Monitoring: Use CCTV cameras, AI-based crowd analysis, and drones to track crowd density and movement.
  • Bottleneck Detection: Identify areas of high congestion and deploy security or volunteers for intervention.
  • Crowd Pressure Analysis: Detect pressure build-up in specific areas and take preventive action before a crisis occurs.
• Inter-agency Communication
  • Coordination Among Authorities: Establish communication between temple authorities, local administration, police, and event organizers.
  • Emergency Alert Systems: Use loudspeakers, SMS alerts, and signboards to guide the crowd during emergencies.
  • Warning Protocols: Assign responsibility for issuing warnings and develop clear evacuation protocols.
• Healthcare Readiness and Emergency Response
  • Medical Facilities on Standby: Ensure ambulances, medical teams, and first-aid stations are available near high-risk locations.
  • Emergency Evacuation Plan: Train security personnel and volunteers in basic crowd control and first aid.
  • Rapid Response Teams: Deploy personnel to manage unexpected crowd surges and medical emergencies.

Conclusion

Ensuring crowd safety requires a proactive approach that combines planning, monitoring, communication, and emergency preparedness. Authorities must take strict measures to control crowd sizes, ensure proper venue design, and deploy real-time surveillance to prevent stampedes.

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